Dr inż. Rakowski: In my opinion, the end of the pandemic is just now happening

– I believe that we are doing well by loosening the restrictions. That the time has come for it. More, in my opinion, in a few weeks, and if nothing bad happens in the meantime, we should give the slogan: restrictions off, face masks off, we’re back to normal – believes Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw. Where are we in the epidemic? What else can “confuse” us? He explained in an interview with Medonet.

1. – In my opinion, the end of the pandemic, i.e. this epidemic in global terms, is just now happening – believes Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw
2. The most important indicator for assessing where we are in the pandemic is the presence of antibodies directed at SARS-CoV-2, says Dr. Rakowski, emphasizing that at the end of 2021, 90 percent of them had them. population of Poland. – This is more than the minimum needed for herd immunity
3. It can be said that the fourth, fall wave has immunized us, bringing us to the level of 90 percent. – However, the price we paid for it was very high. Let me remind you that the previous COVID-19 wave cost 40 lives. Poles
4. How quickly will we lose the obtained immunity: this is what the whole game will be about – says Franciszek Rakowski. – I am optimistic and hope that the degradation cycle will be slower than one year
5. According to the scientist, in August we will have to carefully monitor the pandemic situation. This will allow you to assess the risk of the fall wave
6. Check your health. Just answer these questions
7. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Monika Mikołajska / Medonet: Doctor, on February 9, the Minister of Health, Adam Niedzielski, announced the beginning of the end of the fifth wave. On the other hand, there are experts who say the pandemic is not yet over. What’s your opinion?

Dr inż. Franciszek Rakowski: I am more of the opinion of Minister Niedzielski. The occupancy rate of covid beds begins to decline – for over a week we have been observing a lower number of hospital admissions due to COVID-19. In my opinion, the end of the pandemic, that is, this epidemic in global terms, is now happening.

Let’s see what has happened over the past pandemic years. A pathogen unknown to our immune system has appeared. For two years it spread among people. The waves that we observed were precisely the gradual infecting of individual societies. It ended in 2021.

Why did the pandemic brake work just then?

The most important indicator of where we are in the pandemic is the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. At the end of 2021, 90 percent of them had them. population of Poland. This is more than the minimum needed for herd immunity. We have reached this level in part through vaccination against COVID-19, unfortunately most of it is due to disease. It can be said that the fourth, fall wave has immunized us, bringing us to the level of 90 percent. However, the price we paid for it was very high. Let me remind you that the previous COVID-19 wave cost 40 lives. Poles.

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Reaching the aforementioned level of immunity meant that the enormous range of the Omikron wave (we estimate that up to 30 million Poles had contact with this variant within two months) did not translate into an equally gigantic level of hospitalization and deaths. There were significantly fewer of them than in previous waves. We did not have strong enough humoral immunity (it is conditioned by antibodies directed against a specific pathogen, in this case SARS-CoV-2 – editor’s note), therefore there were so many infections. However, cellular immunity was very high (T lymphocytes attack anything they consider potentially harmful – ed.).

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In connection with the above, I can say that now – after the Delta wave and the weakening omicron wave – we are a completely immune / coldmunised society. It’s as if we had 100 percent. grafting.

The rest of the text below the video.

The question is, how long can this condition last?

Exactly, this is what the game will be about: how quickly will we lose the resistance we gain. I am optimistic and hope the degradation cycle will be slower than one year. Then, practically every year, we will be infected with the coronavirus, and thus we will build “further layers” of immunity. So it will be a flu-like pattern (the nature of influenza virus infection and SARS-CoV-2 is similar). Anyway, the flu is just as harmful as the coronavirus, the difference is that we are immunized against the first disease.

Does all this mean the worst is behind us?

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Previous forecasts showed, however, that we will have a peak in terms of deaths in early March. Does this mean that it has come earlier, that it has already happened?

We predicted the peak of the wave in the vicinity of February 14, meanwhile it came two weeks earlier. If so, we are over a week after peak hospitalization. Overall, we estimate the hospitalization rate for Omikron at 15 percent. what we had on the Delta. As for the peak in deaths, it was last week. The maximum weekly average was 260 cases, based on daily data – on the worst day we had 378 fatalities. According to our forecasts, we will not exceed these levels anymore, we expect the number of cases to decline. We forecast that at the end of February and the beginning of March we will have about 200 deaths a day (based on the weekly average).

Considering the above, I have to ask the question about lifting the restrictions. Is this the right time for it? The first steps have already been made with the revision of the quarantine and isolation rules. Recently, the prime minister said that lifting of further restrictions is being considered, although so far no decisions have been taken.

I believe that we are doing well by loosening the restrictions. That the time has come for it. More, in my opinion in a few weeks, and if nothing bad happens in the meantime, we should give the slogan: restrictions off, face masks off, back to normal.

Let’s talk a bit more about the future of the pandemic. In an interview with PAP at the beginning of February, you said that in the coming months the pandemic will gradually calm down – and it will continue to do so until August. Why only until August? And what to expect next?

In August, and even in July, we will have to monitor the pandemic situation in the world very closely. All this to be able to assess the risk of an autumn wave. We already know that coronavirus transmissibility increases significantly during the flu season (fall and winter). We will definitely have a wave of infection then, the only question is how high. It is possible that the range will resemble the Omicron wave – there will be a lot of cases and a moderate level of hospitalization and deaths.

However, if there is a mutation that breaks the acquired immunity, especially the second-line – antibody mutation, which protects us from hospitalization, a warning lamp will light up. Of course, what I’m talking about is not certain. For while the fourth wave was necessary, the next – though possible – need not come. Therefore, based on scientific knowledge, we hope that this is the end of the pandemic. This is not certainty yet, but already hope. Previously, there was no question of it, now it is.

What other threats may the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus bring? What, in your opinion, can still “confuse us”?

The main risk is related to the possible new variant of the pathogen already mentioned, especially if it is able to break both lines of resistance. Its appearance in the coming months cannot be ruled out. It is also impossible not to take into account a completely new pathogen that will restart the two-year process of passing through the plague. History shows that such things on a global scale do not happen often, on average once every hundred years.

If it is a natural process, we have a chance for several dozen years of peace. If not, because we still cannot reject the hypothesis that humans contributed to the development of SARS-CoV-2, a new “pest” can arise at any given moment – then we will start all over again.

Another risk is that the balance between the rate of loss of immunity and the rate of new mutations (not talking about the most dangerous ones) will be disturbed to our detriment. This means more waves of infections. If the decline in protection is slow, it will give us time to immunize each year. Then we will have considerations of peace.

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At the moment, however, the epidemic is still a fact. What is your advice to us at this time? What can we still not forget?

Certainly, the services responsible for epidemic safety still have to be very vigilant and monitor the threat. It is extremely important to measure the number of cases found and sequencing the virus.

The most important thing, though requiring years of work, is to rebuild public confidence in the authorities in the context of crisis management. The fact that in Poland less than 60 percent were vaccinated. population, this is the result of the fact that for decades we have had very little trust in health services, but also in the government. This is the opposite of the situation in, for example, Denmark. Generally, it can be seen that countries where the level of public confidence in the authorities and public services is high (completely disregarding the political options) have passed through this pandemic well. Those, which are skeptical about the actions of the authorities in the fight against the epidemic, simply took it worse.

At the same time, we encourage you to listen to the latest episode of the RESET podcast. This time we were talking about breathing. Breathe with your mouth or nose? How To Get Rid Of Bad Breathing Habits? What is breath re-reduction and how does it affect our mental and physical health? You will hear about this and many other aspects of breathing below.

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