In line with its mission, the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony makes every effort to provide reliable medical content supported by the latest scientific knowledge. The additional flag “Checked Content” indicates that the article has been reviewed by or written directly by a physician. This two-step verification: a medical journalist and a doctor allows us to provide the highest quality content in line with current medical knowledge.
Our commitment in this area has been appreciated, among others, by by the Association of Journalists for Health, which awarded the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony with the honorary title of the Great Educator.
The coronavirus seems to be letting go. The number of infections is the lowest since March 2020, on June 28, for the first time in several months, no one died from COVID-19. However, we are not safe. Dr. Aneta Afelt says directly: the epidemic situation is gaining momentum, although the statistics do not show it yet. Where are we really in the epidemic and what may the future hold? She explained in an interview with Medonet.
- According to scientists, probably 55 percent have encountered the coronavirus. Polish society. This means that still approx. 45 percent. is prior to contacting SARS-CoV-2
- Dr Afelt recalls that the most important factor in the spread of variants is population movement
- Expert: if we do not comply with the sanitary regime, not to mention vaccinated, we may be infected with the regional version of SARS-CoV-2 (even several), and by moving – we will destroy it
- More current information can be found on the Onet homepage.
Monika Mikołajska / Medonet .: We have loosened the restrictions, we are planning holiday trips, the number of infections in Poland has been the lowest since last March. On the other hand, scientists and epidemiologists warn against the fourth COVID-19 wave. Doctor, where are we in the epidemic? Is this the beginning of the end or is it the calm before the storm?
Dr. Aneta Afelt from the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences: Let’s take a look at the current situation in Poland. On the one hand, we have a large percentage of people who are certainly already in contact with the coronavirus. A year ago we had a “chance” for this in the spring, during the autumn wave and the last one – in the spring. However, it is not yet clear how many of these people actually exist. PZH-PIB conducts monitoring, which shows great variation in individual age groups. Certainly, the number of detected infections does not indicate how many Poles have actually come into contact with SARS-CoV-2. After all, only those who reported symptoms and those in their immediate vicinity were tested.
What do we know? The modeling results conducted by my colleagues from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of the University of Warsaw indicate that 55% of them have encountered the coronavirus with a high probability. society, and perhaps even a little more if we include those who were vaccinated with the first dose.
It seems like a lot …
Unfortunately – that’s not enough. This percentage means that still approx. 45 percent. society is in front of contact with the coronavirus. I cannot fail to mention the research, the results of which leave no doubt. Immunity after COVID-19 infection / SARS-CoV-2 infection does not last for life.
Immunity after natural contact with the coronavirus is shorter – the results of research and modeling indicate that it may last several days, even several years, but unfortunately on average – six, eight to 10 months. So, in fact, every year it may happen that we will get sick if we do not get vaccinated.
And what is known about the persistence of immunity after vaccination against COVID-19?
Vaccination-induced immunity is much higher, much more effective. But we also do not have it “forever”. Currently, it is suggested that vaccinations will need to be repeated every two to three years. The situation therefore seems very favorable.
However, we cannot forget about the activity of people from almost all over the world during these months. We just “froze her”. The virus has thus adapted to the cultural preferences of social contacts. The British, Indian, South African, Brazilian, Californian and other variants emerged. They were all built in specific regions, under specific conditions. Now the holiday season begins, we are going on vacation – this means that we can naturally and unknowingly bring new variants of the pathogen to our regions.
We know that the Indian variant is already available in Poland. Research by prof. Krzysztof Pyrcia from the Małopolska Center of Biotechnology of the Jagiellonian University indicate that he appeared in our detectable percentage at the end of May. To sum up – it is clear that the epidemic situation is gaining momentum, although it is not yet visible in the statistics.
- Are you threatened by the Delta variant? The degree of risk depends on several factors
What is the real threat of the coronavirus mutations for us? Why are there still new variants being developed at all?
Another variant is simply the adaptation of the virus to the prevailing conditions. It’s his way of surviving. Let’s assume that in Poland we all wear masks, keep our distance and vaccinate against COVID-19. In this situation, the virus will try to find a different form that will provide it with hosts and allow it to bypass the barriers we place for it.
The British variant differs from the original SARS-CoV-2 in that it penetrates the human cell more efficiently. The Indian variant, in turn, is – to put it very simply – a combination of the British and South African variants. To effectively infect the body, a smaller dose of the pathogen is needed, on the other hand, bypassing certain aspects of the immune system, allows it to multiply effectively.
It’s like a game – we put in a security, the virus tries to get around it. And when he succeeds, we look for another security. And everything repeats itself
Exactly. And the most important factor for the spread of regional variants is population movement. If we do not follow the sanitary regime, let alone get vaccinated, we can become infected with the regional version of SARS-CoV-2 (hopefully not by a few!), And when we move around, we will destroy it. What has contributed to the success of this pathogen is that it takes an average of five to six days from infection to first symptoms, if they ever appear. We start transmitting the virus a day or two before symptoms begin, and are completely unaware of it.
Do you know which direction the virus can go?
Research shows that it will rather evolve towards a pathogen that is in symbiosis with us – that is, its presence will not cause long-term or very serious health effects. This is not the first coronavirus that has colonized us. There are two others among us, and we do not even notice it – we are going through a seasonal cold. But these coronaviruses really colonized us centuries ago. We are at the beginning of this road with SARS-CoV-2! So let’s hope that this will also happen with SARS-CoV-2 over time. The bad news is that the term “over time” does not mean several months or even years, but rather dozens of years.
You may be interested in:
- Can people returning from Great Britain bring the Delta variant to Poland? Prof. Fal: One thing spoils optimism
- “I am one of the unvaccinated”. The MedTvoiLokony reader describes why he did not report for the second dose
- What to do when a loved one does not want to be vaccinated? An expert on the so-called cocoon method
The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website. Do you need a medical consultation or an e-prescription? Go to halodoctor.pl, where you will get online help – quickly, safely and without leaving your home.