The government is introducing restrictions based on the calculations of a 19-year-old fan of statistics? “I try to collect the whole information mess into a coherent whole”

Interest in 19-year-old Michał Rogalski, the author of the study “COVID-19 in Poland”, is not waning. Many internet users suggest that the government introduces epidemiological restrictions during the pandemic based mainly on the analysis of a young Twitter user. Government officials deny it, Rogalski explains.

1. It turned out that the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw, whose support the government uses in managing the pandemic, bases its analyzes on Rogalski’s data
2. “What has it gotten to be that the government is guided by hobbyist charts?” – Twitter users ask.
3. The media noise that arose around the whole case comes from social expectations, data about the epidemic should be made available not by a private person, but by a public institution – explain the representatives of ICM
4. Michał Rogalski: “The government has its own data, which it partially publishes, and I try to collect the entire information mess into a coherent whole”
5. More information about the COVID-19 situation can be found on the TvoiLokony home page

Michał Rogalski from Łódź is a nineteen-year-old who presents himself on Twitter as a computer graphic. He became famous for creating a database on the coronavirus pandemic in Poland. He entitled it “COVID-19 in Poland” and he supplements the information on a regular basis.

Following the recent restrictions introduced by the government, alarming questions immediately surfaced on the Internet: Could a teenager’s hobby have an impact on the government’s efforts to fight the pandemic? Or will the lockdown in the country take place based on the data of an amateur?

1. Lockdown in Poland based on data collected by an internet user? Here’s what we know about this case

Twitter picked up on the topic. “I can’t shake off the shock (…) I had no idea that you created this one and only base in PL” – one user wrote to Rogalski. “What has it gotten to be that the government is guided by hobbyist charts?” – other Twitter users asked.

The government has its own information

The truth is, however, that the government receives information about the development of the epidemic, the number of cases and outbreaks from its own institutions.

– From the beginning of the pandemic, poviat and voivodship epidemiological sanitary stations have handed them over to individual voivodes. Then each of them passes them on to the Ministry of Health. On this basis, the government prepares national data and statistics and informs, for example, about the daily number of infections, deaths and people who have recovered, says an employee of the voivodeship office and asks for anonymity.

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On the other hand, the development of the COVID-19 epidemiological model is carried out by a special team appointed by the minister of health. They are scientists from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw.

The team cooperates with the Department of Analyzes and Strategies of the Ministry of Health and the Government Center for Security and its task is to predict the paths of further development of the epidemic, to study various scenarios and the effects of administrative restrictions: closing shopping malls, cinemas, theaters, canceling sports events, etc.

Don’t demonize Mr. Michał

Komputer Świat was the first to ask about Rogalski’s role in government decisions. In the text “Lockdown in Poland based on data collected by an internet user? Here is what we know about this matter »it was written:” the government in its speeches is eagerly supporting the analyzes and forecasts created by the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of the University of Warsaw (…) However, as you can read on the same page, the data used by ICM do not come from them, neither directly from the Ministry of Health, or from another government body, and they are the work of … Michał Rogalski, who is on Twitter and runs his own database? “

The employees of the Modeling Center of the University of Warsaw emphasize that everyone can sit in front of the computer every morning and enter the official data into the spreadsheet.

– The same is done by Mr. Michał. He follows the statistics published by the Ministry of Health and Sanitary and Epidemiological Station. The sheets developed by him are well systematized and useful in use. But I would not demonize the role of Mr.Michał, because collecting data is a much greater challenge than transcribing them, explains Dr. Franciszek Rakowski, head of the team dealing with the simulation of the Epidemiological Model at ICM.

Complex data

In turn, Dr. Dominik Batorski from ICM emphasizes that the study by Michał Rogalski is a grassroots initiative that does not in any way undermine the work of scientists from the University of Warsaw.

– The so-called citizen science is a field that is developing very widely around the world. So it is not unusual for scientists to use resources that are collected in this way. Michał’s great contribution and commitment are worth appreciating – says Batorski. – The media noise, which arose from the social expectation that such data should be made available not by a private person, but by a public institution in a form suitable for further analysis – he adds.

The model used by ICM uses many different data sets.

– They come from the Central Statistical Office, the National Institute of Hygiene, the Ministry of Health, and data estimating social mobility. This is complex data and we suck it into our model. We also use those provided by Mr. Michał. And since it was his wish to mark his name, we did so, ‘Rakowski emphasizes.

And he adds that state offices still have a lot to do.

– Also in the area of ​​collecting and sharing data in a friendly way for the society and each other. But it’s not that whatever we do we have to base on Mr. Rogalski’s sheets. They are simply very convenient to use, the scientist concludes.

We found out unofficially that Mr. Michał received a proposal to cooperate with ICM. However, he was not interested.

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It is not a teenager who rules the state

We also asked Wojciech Andrusiewicz, spokesman for the Ministry of Health, whether the government’s decisions regarding epidemiological restrictions in the country are made on the basis of the analyzes of a 19-year-old internet user. He received the questions on Friday morning, but so far we have not received an answer.

However, the problem was largely explained by Michał Rogalski himself.

On Friday, he wrote on Twitter: “Well, it’s not like a TEEN RUNS THE STATE !! (as the media headlines can suggest). The government’s actions do not depend on what I enter on the worksheet. The government has its own data, which it partially publishes, and I try to collect the whole mess of information into a coherent whole ”.

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