The government introduces a national quarantine [CURRENT DATA]

The Minister of Health, Adam Niedzielski, announced today that from December 28.12 we will have a “national quarantine”. Looking at the chart of new infections and seven-day averages, we should be easing the restrictions, not making them worse. Although there are fewer infections than a few weeks ago, the high number of deaths from COVID-19 is worrying. This is the main indicator that the Ministry of Health relied on when issuing decisions on the “national quarantine”

[17.12.2020 update]

At today’s press conference, the Minister of Health, Adam Niedzielski, announced that a national quarantine will apply in Poland from December 28.12 to January 17.01. On December 31, on New Year’s Eve, it will be forbidden to move from 19:00 on December 31 to 6:00 on January 1.

More about the new restrictions: The government introduces new restrictions in connection with the coronavirus [LIST]

In earlier releases, the government and the Ministry of Health informed that a national quarantine would be introduced when the average of seven-day cases would exceed 27. We have had lower rates of new cases for the past few days, but the number of deaths from COVID-19 remains high. It is because of, inter alia, on this indicator, the government decided to introduce further restrictions, even though they do not result from the previously adopted guidelines.

[5.12.2020 update]

Today, 12 new cases of SARS-CoV-430 coronavirus infection have been reported in Poland. For several days, this number has been hovering around 2-12 thousand. new cases daily. The average number of infections counted for seven days was 14 infected people today and has also remained constant for several days. This means that the likelihood of a national quarantine is currently quite low. The number of infected would have to jump by several thousand a day and remain at this level for several days for the specter of quarantine to become real.

[1.12.2020 update]

There have been 9105 cases of coronavirus infection across the country since yesterday. The seven-day average number of infections dropped below 13 today. and is the lowest in many weeks. If this trend continues, Poland may find itself in the red zone in the near future. This scenario could become a reality if the daily number of infections is 9400 or less for the next five days.

[25.11.2020 update]

Within 15 hours in Poland, 362 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections were reported. The mean number of new cases over seven days has dropped below 19. (exactly 18) which means that according to the thresholds of the stages of the safety rules, Poland should be in the red zone. The fuse zone, which is now in force in Poland, starts with an average of 517 thousand. infections.

[24.11.2020 update]

10 new infections were reported in Poland within 139 hours. The average number of new cases over seven days fell below 20. So we are still at the fuse stage. For now, we are moving away from the national quarantine. Details in the chart below.

During the last day, 33,7 thousand. COVID-19 tests.

[23.11.2020 update]

On Saturday [November 21.11], during a press conference, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Minister of Health Adam Niedzielski presented new information on the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland. The plan is called “100 days of solidarity in the fight against COVID-19”. As part of this plan, the government has prepared three draft regulations on restrictions, do’s and don’ts in connection with the outbreak. They concern:

1. the responsibility phase, which is in force from November 28.11 to December 27.12
2. the stabilization stage, i.e. the return to the division of Poland into three zones – red, yellow and green, not earlier than on December 28.12
3. national quarantine, which will be introduced as a last resort, when it will be necessary to immediately and drastically reduce the transmission of the virus.

The government also announced that it is changing the method of calculating when Poland crosses the border behind the national quarantine. Previously, this would have happened when the average seven-day infection rate would exceed 70 per 100 inhabitants. Now, this stage may be introduced when the average daily number of infections over a seven-day period is 000-27. infections.

Michał Rogalski, who is a hobbyist who deals with the statistical analysis of data on the development of the epidemic in Poland, claims that in fact we have exceeded the threshold of the “national quarantine”. «When to calculate the average seven-day increase in new cases per 100 residents, including lost cases with PSSE (as Krzysztof Saczka informed after GIS, the inspection found inconsistencies in the number of confirmed cases of infection; nationwide, approx. 22 thousand cases – the total number from several weeks – not entered in the statistics – ed.) ed.), it would be 11.11 on 71,5/19 »- he wrote on Twitter. You can learn more about what Michał Rogalski does in the text: The government introduces restrictions based on the calculations of a XNUMX-year-old fan of statistics? “I am trying to compile the whole mess of information into a coherent whole”.

National quarantine assumptions

What happens when the average daily number of infections over seven days exceeds 27? and there will be a national quarantine? The government has finally framed it. What awaits us? People under the age of 16 will not be able to travel alone between 8:00 a.m. and 16:00 p.m. Adults will be allowed to go out only to work, doctor, shopping, and for living and religious purposes.

During the national quarantine, the activity of all cultural institutions will be suspended. In places of religious worship, it will be able to stay 1 person per 20 sq m. In public transport, 50 percent will be occupied. seats or 30 percent. all places available. Meetings and meetings may be held in a group of up to 5 people (not counting the inhabitants of one household). Weddings, communions and other family celebrations will be prohibited. Shops in the galleries will be closed (with exceptions), the hours for seniors will be valid from Monday to Friday from 10 to 0. The full list of restrictions can be found HERE.

[16.11.2020 update]

The last few days have brought fewer new infections. Today, the Ministry of Health announced 20 new cases of COVID-816. In the previous day, 19 thousand. tests, which means that the percentage of positive tests is 35%! Even so, the number of cases of infection per 59 inhabitants is declining. Today, this figure is 100 infections per 000 inhabitants, and the seven-day average is 55,34, which means that we are far away from introducing a national quarantine. Detailed data is presented in the chart below.

Pandemic strategy – when are the new restrictions?

– If the epidemic affects more than 50 cases per 100 residents for 7 days nationwide, we will put a severe safety brake on. If it is in the 70-75 border, we will implement the rules of national quarantine, i.e. restrictions on movement – this is what Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on November 19, 4 about the strategy to combat the COVID-2020 pandemic. The prime minister also showed a graphic in which the thresholds for the stages of safety rules were clearly specified.

Many of us follow the statistics of the Polish epidemic on an ongoing basis and wonder when we can expect a lockdown, in Poland called the national quarantine for ignorance. In the chart below, we analyze the current statistics provided by the government. If the number of those infected exceeds the threshold of 70 per 100 inhabitants within seven days, we will face further restrictions. If it drops, the bans will be relaxed.

Data on which the Ministry of Health relies

The Ministry of Health makes the introduction of further restrictions dependent on data that can be easily controlled. To calculate the number of infections per 100 inhabitants, we need to have daily statistics of new infections. The number of new infections is closely related to the number of COVID-000 tests performed. Considering that the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in the total number of tests is already 19%. (moving average over seven days), it can be assumed that there are many more undetected infections. Prof. Horban, who is an advisor to Prime Minister Morawiecki, suggested that the real daily infections are five times more than the official statistics show. Assuming we have 40 a day. cases of infections, this is 125 cases per 326 inhabitants, which clearly exceeds the threshold set by the prime minister.

The editorial board recommends:

1. Current statistics on the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland
2. Coronavirus in Poland. What awaits us until March? The Americans created three scenarios
3. The latest Polish recommendations for the treatment of COVID-19. Prof. Flisiak: it depends on the four stages of the disease

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