Contents
- The world’s population has increased sevenfold in two centuries. Will it continue to grow at such a breakneck pace?
- Why is this growth slowing down today?
- What do you think of the denatalist and Malthusian discourses who fear an exhaustion of resources and call on couples, especially in northern countries, to limit the number of children?
- Doesn’t the challenge for the countries of the North lie more in the aging of its population?
- Can the very strong demographic growth of certain African countries be a factor of economic development?
A few days ago a famous English researcher naturalist, Sir David Attenborough, considered that it was necessary to stop having many children. As our species is no longer subject to natural selection and population growth is rampant, David Attenborough fears that natural resources are depleted. INED today publishes a world population table. The point of view of Gilles Pison, author of this study, on these issues.
The world’s population has increased sevenfold in two centuries. Will it continue to grow at such a breakneck pace?
GP: Today we are a little more than 7 billion inhabitants on earth and we should reach between 9 and 10 billion in 2050. If the population continues to increase, it is however at a rate which is decelerating for 50 years . Growth reached its highest level in the 60s, with a rate of over 2% per year.. Today the rate is 1,2%. The population continues to increase but over time, if current trends continue, it could stabilize or even slowly decrease after reaching a maximum. Maybe in the 22nd or 23rd century.
Why is this growth slowing down today?
GP: Fertility is declining. Young women are studying longer and longer, want a job, and also children, but less than their mothers. On average, in the world, there are 2,5 children per woman. In Europe, this rate is 1,6 children, Iran is 1,9, Brazil 1,8, South Korea 1,3, China 1,5, Bosnia reaches the lowest rate with 1,2 children per woman. However, it takes 2,1 children to renew the population at term. In other regions of the world, fertility, even in decline, still remains high, more than 4 children per woman: all of tropical Africa and part of Asia, from Afghanistan to northern Africa. India through Pakistan. This is where the bulk of future population growth will take place.
What do you think of the denatalist and Malthusian discourses who fear an exhaustion of resources and call on couples, especially in northern countries, to limit the number of children?
GP: Stopping population growth in the short term is difficult. We will not escape 2 or 3 billion more inhabitants by 2050 given the large proportion of the population who are of childbearing age. In many countries, as we have seen, the fertility rate is also already very low. More than half of humanity lives in a country or region of the world where there are fewer than 2,1 children. Asking European parents to stop having babies would have very little impact globally.
On the other hand, the issue of hunger in the world is not linked to a lack of food on a global scale, but to conflicts and civil wars which prevent the delivery of food aid. We will undoubtedly be able to feed 10 billion inhabitants tomorrow much better than we feed the 7 billion today. Moreover, in rich countries, we could advantageously eat less fat, less sugar, less meat. The planet is far from being threatened with generalized famine. On the other hand, fears about global warming and the depletion of fossil fuels are quite valid.
If it is not possible to influence the number of men in the short term, it is possible, on the other hand, to act on lifestyles, and this without delay, in order to make them more respectful of the environment and more resource efficient. The real question, the one on which the survival of the human species ultimately depends, is ultimately less that of numbers than that of lifestyles.. Northern countries can act immediately. They have a real responsibility, they must lead by example.
Doesn’t the challenge for the countries of the North lie more in the aging of its population?
GP: Yes. This aging is the result of a positive trend: we are living increasingly older and in better health. We will not prevent it. But the challenges of old age are important, we have to deal with them and prepare for them. Moreover, demographic aging is a challenge for the whole planet because it will also take place in the countries of the South, and very quickly, even faster than the countries of the North.
Can the very strong demographic growth of certain African countries be a factor of economic development?
GP: The demographic transition (the shift from a high birth rate and mortality that roughly equilibrate to a low birth rate and mortality) has been accompanied by rapid economic development in Latin America and Asia. The proportion of people of working age, between 20 and 65 years old has never been so high and partly explains these economic miracles. China, Brazil, India have benefited from this abundance of labor. Intertropical Africa is very young from a demographic point of view, this youth should be an asset for economic development. But the continent is not taking full advantage of this demographic opportunity, unemployment is high. Perhaps fertility is still too high and does not allow this youth to become a real strength.