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The last year was devoted to SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics, but this does not mean that other viruses suddenly ceased to exist. Pathogens circulate around us and attack us no less frequently than before the pandemic. However, it cannot be denied that there are fewer cases – even flu. However, the numbers that indicate a drastic decline in diagnosed cases are treated by experts with great distance. Reason? Even if the flu has actually “gone”, it does not mean anything good for us …
- The number of flu cases in the current season – compared to the previous year – has dropped drastically
- To date, no deaths due to influenza have been reported
- Expert: The flu hasn’t gone away, it’s just not properly diagnosed
- In the current flu season, more flu vaccinations have been reported. Despite this, Poland – compared to other European countries – is still at the tail end in terms of the degree of vaccination of the society against the disease
- You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page
Flu – A virus that has (a) disappeared
January 2020. The National Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene (NIZP – PZH) reports: in the period from January 1 to 31, 544 thousand were diagnosed. 63 cases of illness and suspected influenza. 2 thousand people were hospitalized 792 people. 10 patients died. From September 2, 2019 to January 26, 2020, 139 samples were collected and tested from people with flu-like or flu-like symptoms. 39 cases of infections with influenza viruses or other respiratory viruses have been laboratory confirmed; the most (25) influenza A virus.
January 2021. For a month, there are 129 cases of suspicion and illness. 41 – that’s about 415 thousand. 22 less than the year before. 314 patients are admitted to the hospital, i.e. 89%. less than last year. There were no deaths. From September 7, 2020 to January 31, 2021, only 39 samples were collected from potentially influenza patients. No case of illness was confirmed.
“The flu is gone” – hurraoptimists announce, congratulating the side “success” of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. “The flu is and is doing quite well” – experts are cooling the enthusiasm, recommending caution in interpreting the numbers, which in the COVID-19 era may be significantly underestimated. Who’s right? Where is the truth?
Where it usually goes: in the middle. It cannot be denied that the current flu incidence statistics are encouraging. Although the season is not over yet, it is already clear that Poland will record the lowest numbers in years. For comparison, in the 2015/2016 season there were 1,99 million flu cases in the country, a year later – one million more (2,93 million). Since 2017, the numbers have not fallen below 2,6 million. This season, the change is clear: 1,1 million – that’s 57,9 percent. fewer cases than in the previous season.
A similar change applies to the number of people hospitalized due to influenza virus infection or suspected disease. While six years ago, more than 6,2 thousand people were hospitalized. people, and in the worst season of 2016/2017 as many as 10,3 thousand, until January 15 this year, “only” 2,1 thousand were hospitalized. sick.
The problem is that last year changed everything. The diagnosis is different, the treatment is different, and the approach of Poles to infectious diseases is different. Our lifestyle has also changed and is of great importance in the prevention of infectious diseases. Each of these factors influenced the statistics to a greater or lesser extent.
The diagnosis of influenza has become troublesome to say the least. The similarity of symptoms with COVID-19 does not help – many cases of coronavirus infection are classified as influenza (especially when the SARS-CoV-2 test is false-negative), but this is no longer confirmed by laboratory testing. Paradoxically, the limitation of stationary medical visits to a minimum has also become problematic.
- Editors recommend: COVID-19 and the flu have many similar symptoms. How to tell them apart? [WE EXPLAIN]
– In times of a prevailing pandemic, we use telepaths to a much greater extent. Consequently the patient does not see a physician physically and is not undergoing a flu diagnosis test. However, this does not mean that the flu is gone. Society continues to get sick – the disease is simply not properly diagnosed – explains Katarzyna Mąkólska from the National Program for Combating Influenza (OPZG).
Difficult diagnosis is followed by treatment of the disease that is far from ideal. Or rather – its lack. While it is well known that there is no cure for the flu or COVID-19, and treatment is based on relieving symptoms, often even the latter is missing. Patients are self-medicating more often than before, which sometimes leads to unsafe symptoms being overlooked and the disease developing. This problem most often affects the elderly, who begin to be seriously concerned about their health condition when the virus has already spread in the body and significantly impedes its functioning, affecting, inter alia, on the respiratory system. Then the seniors require urgent hospitalization.
Disregard for flu-like symptoms has become the norm, although perhaps the word “disregard” is an abuse in this context. On the one hand, those suffering from this type of symptoms do not so much downplay their health condition, but try to avoid the diagnosis at all costs: COVID-19. The reasons are clear: confirmation of coronavirus infection is the need to go to isolation or – in the absence of official confirmation – quarantine, which significantly limits freedom and everyday functioning. When we add the fear of infecting loved ones, it’s no wonder that few want to know that they “have the coronavirus”.
On the other hand, the response to a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result for people who do have some type of viral infection can be overly enthusiastic. Consequently many patients ignore their symptoms because “nothing worse than COVID-19 can happen today”. Meanwhile, it not only can, but also happens. Treating other infectious diseases as less dangerous than the coronavirus is a very dangerous trend, virologists note.
Finally, and this – as one of the main reasons for the fall in the incidence of flu – is indicated by the majority of experts, our everyday life has been revolutionized. Isolating during illness (even the common cold), wearing face masks, maintaining social distancing, avoiding gatherings, and significantly limiting social gatherings – it all had to work.
– These actions make it much more difficult for viruses to spread, so that fewer people get sick in general, including the flu. It is worth noting, however, that the data may be greatly underestimated due to the low number of flu tests and priority testing for SARS-CoV-2. An important issue is also the fact that a large proportion of children, who are considered transmitters of the virus, stay at home and learn remotely. All these factors significantly reduce the transmission of both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses, adds Katarzyna Mąkólska.
Flu in Poland. (No) unnecessary vaccinations
Children not only transmit the flu virus easily, but they also develop frequent and severe illness. Only in January this year, the disease was diagnosed or suspected in 45,7 thousand. people up to 14 years of age (in the corresponding period of 2020 it was 253 420 children). This is the second most common age group suffering from this disease, which usually has direct contact with people from the higher risk group, i.e. seniors, in whom the flu is not only more severe, but also associated with numerous complications. Nevertheless, influenza vaccination is still not very popular among Poles.
Poland is at the bottom of the list of European countries in terms of the state of vaccination of the population against the disease. In the 2019/2020 season, only 4,12 percent were vaccinated. Poles, a year earlier even less – 3,9 percent. It is the worst among seniors. The data of the National Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene shows that 8% of people have been vaccinated against influenza for several years. up to 11 percent people over 65 years of age. And although in the 2019/2020 season this percentage increased slightly (according to OPZG data it was 15,1%), which could have been caused by the free flu vaccination program offered to seniors by local governments, it is still less than recommended by the World Health Organization. WHO wants vaccination coverage for this age group to be at least 75%. Europe is also unable to cope with these recommendations, but it still leaves us far behind – the average for the continent is now 44%.
Experts are surprised by such distance of the society towards preventive vaccinations against influenza. The preparations are usually easily available, inexpensive and non-invasive. According to the National Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene, “influenza vaccines are characterized by the lowest number of recorded adverse post-vaccination reactions. After vaccination, only local reactions may occur, such as redness, soreness and swelling at the injection site and, less frequently, general reactions (slight increase in body temperature, pain in muscles, joints and head), subsiding after a few days ». In addition, the vaccine can be given to children from 6 months of age and can be included in the immunization schedule.
- See also: Vaccination calendar for 2021 These vaccinations are mandatory
This year, the flu vaccination rate is slightly higher (6,1% – as of mid-February 2021). It is certainly influenced by the prevailing coronavirus pandemic – Poles (and around the world) are becoming more aware of the risks associated with viral infections. But there are also those who prefer to get vaccinated on “anything” before the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination program reaches their age group, hoping that the flu vaccine will somehow protect them from the coronavirus as well.
– At the start of the flu season in September, there was still no COVID-19 vaccine on the market, so the public began to vaccinate against the flu. This is a good trend and hopefully it will be preserved in future seasons, because only vaccinations protect against the disease, but also against serious complications from influenza, which can even lead to death. An even greater interest in influenza vaccinations can definitely be expected next season. We estimate that in the 2021/2022 season, the demand for influenza vaccines will be around 4 million doses. However, taking into account the global deficit on the vaccine market (about 25-30%) and their low prices, Poland will probably not be a priority supply market. This means that the supply of vaccines to Poland next year may be limited, and producers will not be able to bring in enough doses to meet the demand – indicates Katarzyna Mąkólska.
This is very bad news, especially as scientists already have serious concerns about developing a flu vaccine for next season. The influenza virus is characterized by antigenic variability. The fewer cases of disease, the more difficult it will be to develop a new vaccine that takes into account the mutation of the pathogen. The problem is global, because the «flu» statistics have dropped drastically all over the world. The only hope is that the morbidity trend will continue in the next season and the new, more hygienic lifestyle will be – in the absence of pharmacological protection available – an alternative “vaccine” against influenza and other infections transmitted by droplets.
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