The impact of the fourth wave may be high in our country, several million Poles are still not immune to SARS-CoV-2 – warns Prof. Krzysztof Pyrć, virologist from the Jagiellonian University in Krakow.
- According to the expert, the next wave of the coronavirus epidemic will be large, as the level of vaccination of the population is still too low
- Prof. Pyrć says the number of deaths from COVID-19 should be lower than in previous waves
- I am a supporter of the recently very unpopular strategy, adopted by France and Italy, to limit the risk when necessary by minimizing, above all, contacts of unvaccinated people, who pose the greatest threat and refuse to cooperate in the fight against the pandemic – says the virologist
- You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page
Zbigniew Wojtasiński, PAP: Were you surprised by the size of the fourth wave of the pandemic? It seemed that the risk of new infections would decrease with the introduction of vaccination.
Prof. Krzysztof Pyrć: Absolutely, the fourth wave did not surprise me at all, nor did it surprise me other specialists dealing with this problem. I have warned against this since March this year.
Despite the vaccination campaign against COVID-19, which has been developing for many months?
Okay, but how many people are vaccinated in Poland, currently only 53 percent. We pointed out that in order to limit the transmission of infections, at least 70% of people should be vaccinated. population. The appearance of the Delta variant has raised this threshold even more and is said to be up to 85 percent. Our 53 percent has nothing to do with it. vaccinated, as well as vaccination rates in many other countries, including the now famous Israel, where only a little over 60% have vaccinated. society. It is still definitely not enough. Therefore, if we do not achieve this desired threshold of preventive vaccination, we will not stop the virus.
The amount of the fourth wave depends on the number of people who are still susceptible to the infection, and we still have a lot of them. We should also remember that the vaccine or disease do not give us a magic shield and do not protect 100%.
In Great Britain, all restrictions were abandoned. Whoever wanted to get vaccinated, got vaccinated, the rest are to get COVID-19.
In Great Britain, the group of people most at risk of severe COVID-19 has been highly protected. As in many other Western European countries, vaccination of people aged 65+ reaches almost 100% there. We are still far from that level, we have about 30-40 percent. unvaccinated population at this age. And let us remind you that the mortality rate in this group is high and may reach even 20-30%. Hence, unfortunately, the current wave of infections could not only be high, but could also result in many deaths.
The rest of the interview is under the video.
There are no visible effects of vaccinations in our country, but more than half of the vaccinated people are quite large?
This cannot be said, it can already be seen that the dynamics of the wave of infections is different than the previous ones. First of all, it grows slower, but remember that its potential is still very large. Therefore, you need to get vaccinated as soon as possible, and in the case of people in the 60-plus group, take care of the third dose.
And the convalescents? After all, there are many people who have had COVID-19 and may be immune, at least in part.
In our country, unfortunately, many people fell ill, which resulted in a very large number of recorded deaths. However, we do not know how many exactly there are, because not all of them have been diagnosed. Research by the National Institute of Public Health-PZH in Warsaw has shown that the percentage of all people who have antibodies, i.e. those who are vaccinated and convalescent, and therefore more resistant to infection, is still too low. Among adults, it is 75 percent. population, but in children it is a much smaller group. I do not know the exact data, but in total they account for over 60 percent. society. This would mean that several million Poles have a chance to see SARS-CoV-2 infection without additional cover.
However, can we count on fewer deaths from COVID-19?
Yes. Secondary infections are often milder, and vaccines reduce the incidence of severe cases of the disease by orders of magnitude, as well as the risk of dying even if infected. The numbers should therefore be lower than in previous waves of infection, but if we remain passive, this winter could be tragic. Hospitals are increasingly filling up with COVID-19 patients.
The health service will be less burdened despite the increase in infections?
We do not have, like the UK, fully vaccinated people at greatest risk of severe disease. Great Britain, after vaccinating high-risk groups, undertook an experiment entitled «Can we try to go to endemic?» (endemia is the constant occurrence of a certain disease – ed.). This seems realistic with good preparation, but even then the price is high. Many people die there every day. Sooner or later we will all have to go in that direction and accept some risk. However, in my opinion, and looking at the daily deaths in Poland, the risk is still too high and it is too early for such a solution.
Other countries are starting to open up as well, and the UK has already done so early this summer.
Denmark and Singapore decided to do so, but almost 100% of them are also vaccinated there. people in the highest risk groups. In Denmark, more than 80 percent. the population is vaccinated. And at this stage, you can try to move on to the next phase. With us, the costs of this are already and will be definitely too high. We may have been in this group as well, but the will was lacking for the actual mass vaccination.
Will it be necessary to re-tighten it?
More covid beds can be set up in hospitals, but this means more people will die. The restrictions may be of various types. It is important to remember that fully vaccinated people pose less risk to themselves, to others, and to healthcare professionals. They are less likely to transmit the virus, it is harder to get the infection, and when they do, there is a much smaller chance that they will end up in the hospital.
I am a supporter of the recently very unpopular strategy adopted by France and Italy to reduce the risk when necessary by minimizing, first of all, contacts of unvaccinated people, who pose the greatest threat and refuse to cooperate in the fight against the pandemic. The idea is to avoid completely shutting down and punishing those who have acted wisely and responsibly and vaccinated against COVID-19.
Or maybe we should introduce compulsory vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2, at least in selected groups?
I am thinking about it, but I am afraid that the effects of such a decision would be contrary to expectations. Because what does it mean to be vaccinated? The military will lead the unvaccinated to the vaccination points? Yes, I think everyone should get vaccinated if there are no restrictions, but we have to be realistic. I don’t know how this could be done.
In Asia, the ‘zero tolerance’ option has been applied and Asians are coping better with the pandemic, at least so far. An example is Taiwan.
At this point, the “zero covid” option in our region is no longer relevant, because we will not get rid of the virus completely. Taiwan has performed brilliantly both economically and in terms of medical care. But they were very well prepared for it from the beginning. They had anticipated a pandemic for many years, and when the SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged, they reacted quickly, largely having scenarios ready.
Are we just learning this?
What is happening with us now will be a great lesson for us for the next pandemics, because they will surely come. This has always been the case, and our interference with the natural environment and climate change will accelerate this process. Pandemics will happen, and we must be prepared for it. Let us not allow 2020 to repeat itself. We must draw conclusions, but we cannot merely copy solutions from other countries.
Do you already know what is the most important? Suppression of the epidemic at the very beginning?
To put it simply, yes, but what does it mean to suppress an epidemic, shut down the country completely for two years? It is impossible, probably there would be nothing to go back to. Different strategies have been used in different countries, with both positive and negative effects. Such an analysis is yet to be carried out, so far I do not dare to say which solution was the best. What was possible in China would not be possible in Poland or, for example, in France.
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Interviewed by Zbigniew Wojtasiński (PAP)
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