The fourth wave of the coronavirus epidemic continues to unfold. This is evidenced not only by the daily reports on the number of infections, but also by the value of the R index. For two weeks, the virus reproduction rate has remained at a similar level, which may mean that this epidemic wave – as experts predicted – will be longer than the previous ones.
- The virus reproduction rate is now 1,35. Two weeks ago it had a value of 1,37
- When the R is greater than 1, we are dealing with a developing epidemic. This means that the situation in Poland cannot be improved yet
- Below we present detailed data on the R index in all voivodeships
- You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page
On October 30, we wrote that the R index is at a record high – its value was then 1,37, which meant that the epidemic was developing (more information HERE).
The Ministry of Health provided us with the latest data on the reproduction rates of the virus. Currently, its value is 1,35 – the decrease is minimal.
What does this result mean? The epidemic in our country is still developing – one infected with the coronavirus infects more than one person. As long as the R index does not fall below 1, there is no “fading” of the fourth wave.
If the R index remains at a similar level for several weeks, it may mean that the scientists’ forecasts are correct. In an interview for MedTvoiLokony, Dr. Eng. Franciszek Rakowski from the Interdisciplinary Modeling Center of the University of Warsaw said that this wave of COVID-19 in Poland will be long and flat.
– The fourth wave will be longer. It will simply take place mainly in villages and small towns, especially in the region of south-eastern Poland. Big cities are much better vaccinated than villages and small towns. This causes the epidemic to naturally flatten, because the epidemic wave will reach these places later, and its pace will be slower – said the expert.
Dr. Rakowski indicated that the peak incidence will fall on the Christmas season. According to the scientist, there will be approx. 25 thousand. infections daily.
- The entire conversation with dr. Rakowski you can read HERE: “The fourth wave will be long and flat”. Here’s what awaits us [FORECAST]
Let us remind you that in the last week we approached the limit of 20 thousand. cases per day – November 11, the Ministry of Health informed about 19 thousand. infections.
The rest of the article under the video.
The R indicator differs in individual voivodships. The highest values are currently in the provinces:
- Silesian – 1,53
- Lesser Poland – 1,5
- Greater Poland – 1,5
High values are also recorded in the province. Łódzkie (1,48), Dolnośląskie (1,45), Lubuskie (1,45), Pomeranian (1,44), Opolskie (1,43), Kujawsko-Pomorskie (1,42), Warmińsko-Mazurskie (1,41, 1,4), Świętokrzyskie (1,4), Mazowieckie (XNUMX).
Values below the national average are found in the following voivodeships:
- West Pomeranian Voivodeship – 1,34
- Podkarpackie – 1,31
- Podlasie – 1,17
- Lublin – 1,13.
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