Will the coronavirus be defeated? Have we learned anything from previous pandemics?

The coronavirus pandemic has been going on for several months. While many countries are currently struggling with the fourth wave of cases, the worst is behind us. Mass vaccination has reduced the number of deaths drastically. Does this mean that we are on track to end the pandemic? And will the coronavirus be completely defeated? We check how the great epidemics in the past ended.

1. The coronavirus pandemic has been ongoing since the beginning of 2020. It has so far claimed over 4,25 million victims. Almost 19 million people fell ill with COVID-200
2. However, mankind has experienced much more deadly plagues in its history. Plague or smallpox pandemics have cost the lives of up to 100 million people
3. Medicine has managed to completely eliminate only one infectious disease
4. Is there a chance that the same will happen in the case of COVID-19?
5. You can find more such stories on the Onet homepage.

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the COVID-19 epidemic was declared a pandemic. A pandemic is “a worldwide or very large epidemic, transcending international borders, affecting large numbers of people and spreading rapidly”.

After sixteen months, the coronavirus is still with us, during this time it turned our private and professional life upside down. Remote work (irreversible for some), face masks, restrictions on contacts, gatherings or purchases are already permanent elements of our reality.

Fortunately, the worst is behind us. Vaccinations lasting several months around the world have resulted in fewer and fewer people suffering from the coronavirus, and even fewer people die. Does this mean that after 200 million cases and 4,25 million deaths from COVID-19, we are on the right track to eliminate the coronavirus? How has humans dealt with the greatest pandemics in history, and what have we learned from them?

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Justinian’s plague

Three of the deadliest pandemics in world history were caused by a single bacterium – the plague stick (Yersinia pestis). The first was the plague epidemic that prevailed in the Byzantine Empire and its capital – Constantinople in the years 541–542.

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The plague reached Constantinople thanks to grains brought from the recently conquered Egypt. The grain transports, as well as the local granaries, were full of rats and fleas that carried the plague. According to modern researchers, several thousand people a day died of the plague in Constantinople. The plague then spread to Europe, Asia, North Africa and Arabia, killing – according to various estimates – between 30 and 100 million people. The plague is believed to have reduced the then global human population by 25-50%.

“People had no idea how to fight it other than trying to avoid the sick,” said Thomas Mockaitis, professor of history at DePaul University..

Black Death

Another plague caused by the plague, though it is believed to be a different tribe to the plague of Justinian. The epidemic broke out in Central Asia in the XNUMXth century, then spread to the Mediterranean and all of Europe. Again, fleas living on rats were probably responsible for the spread of the virus.

The plague claimed 75 to 200 million people, and reduced the population of Europe by 30-60 percent.

The Black Death “invented” a quarantine. Knowledge at that time did not allow the discovery of the contagion mechanism, but it was suspected that it was related to proximity. Therefore, officials from the Republic of Ragusa ordered the newly arrived sailors to stay on their ships until they could prove that they were not sick. First, the isolation lasted 30 days, then 40 days, and was called “quarantino” (from quaranta, meaning forty in Italian).

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The plague was returning in Europe to the XNUMXth century, causing smaller local epidemics, including in London, Vienna and Marseille.

The plague has not been finally eliminated, it still mainly occurs in Asia. In the second half of the 15th century, it triggered the third plague pandemic in China. Fifteen million people died, and it was not until 1960 that the pandemic ended. The latest case of an increased number of plague infections comes from Mongolia last year.

Small pox

Smallpox was first reported in Asia at the beginning of the XNUMXth century, in Europe it appeared in the late XNUMXth century. For a long time it was endemic in these two regions of the world, killing three out of ten infected people. However, it caused real havoc in the New World in the XNUMXth century, where it was taken by Spanish conquistadors.

The indigenous peoples of modern Mexico and the United States had zero natural immunity to smallpox. There has never been a case in human history that could compare to what happened in the Americas – 90 to 95 percent. the indigenous population was extinct within a century, says Mockaitis. – Mexico’s population has decreased from 11 million before the Spanish invasion to a million.

Smallpox killed 95 percent. Inca population.

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The plague then moved to North America, where outbreaks of the disease began in the XNUMXth century, most often in Boston.

The first work on the smallpox vaccine began at the end of the 1977th century thanks to Edward Jenner. In contrast, mass vaccination appeared after World War II. And almost two centuries after Jenner’s discovery, success could be announced. The last case of infection with smallpox in the world took place in 1963 (in Poland in XNUMX). In 1980, the World Health Organization announced that smallpox had been completely eradicated (eradicated). It is the only human contagious disease that can be said so.

Flu

Influenza accompanies man since the 1th century BC. The first serious pandemic took place at the end of the 1th century. Since then, epidemics and pandemics have appeared in Europe and Asia every few decades, but the real cataclysm happened thanks to the “Spanish” flu, an extremely dangerous type of flu. It was caused by the H2009N10 virus, which is present in influenza in birds and pigs. This virus was responsible, among others, for the swine flu pandemic in XNUMX-XNUMX.

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The “Spanish Flu” spread between 1918 and 1920 in Europe, Asia, Africa and North America. 40 percent became infected. of the world population, 50 million people died, although some say as much as 100 million. Its mortality is estimated at 5-10 percent. Next to the Black Death, it is considered the most tragic pandemic in human history.

However, medicine has not been able to eliminate the flu. New mutations are still emerging, in recent decades there have been two epidemics in Asia (both claimed about a million deaths each), and in 2009 the Mexican flu killed several hundred thousand people. people. Due to the seasonal flu, about 650 die each year. people around the world. To minimize the risk, flu vaccinations are held every year.

HIV / AIDS pandemic

There is no consensus among scientists as to whether mass AIDS cases can be called a pandemic, at least WHO classifies the disease as a “global epidemic”.

The AIDS era began in 1981, when more and more previously healthy homosexual men became seriously ill. Responsible for this was the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Initially, HIV was thought to affect mainly homosexuals and drug addicts, but in 1983 the WHO concluded that it could also be transmitted between heterosexual couples through blood transfusions and passed from infected mothers to their children.

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It is estimated that 78 million people have contracted HIV since the outbreak of the epidemic, of whom 35 million have died. In 2020, there were almost 38 million HIV carriers worldwide, 680 died.

So far, no vaccine against HIV has been invented, and there is no effective cure for AIDS. Prevention plays a major role in stopping the epidemic. 80 percent cases of infection are sexually transmitted, so it is important to limit sexual contact and use condoms, and to use injection equipment only once. Science and medicine have moved forward in recent years and so have treatment options and life expectancy for AIDS patients.

How will the COVID-19 pandemic end?

Can any conclusions be drawn about the coronavirus from previous pandemics? Each disease and epidemic is unique, and medicine has managed to eliminate only one serious disease – smallpox. SARS-CoV-2, like the flu virus, continues to mutate, the number of variants is increasing all the time, so the chances of it being completely eradicated are slim. COVID-19 will become a seasonal or regional disease, smaller outbreaks of coronavirus will appear in various places around the world than before.

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But we know what needs to be done to minimize the risk. It is primarily vaccinations. No vaccine is 100% effective, but all vaccines currently available reduce the risk of severe illness, hospitalization and death very seriously. We recently found out about the importance of immunization with measles. The decreasing willingness to vaccinate resulted in the vaccination coverage dropping by several percent, which means that we have lost herd immunity to this disease.

In addition, there is prophylaxis, i.e. proper hygiene, wearing masks in situations where the risk of transmission is higher. Science also has a lot to say. We can expect that there will be more and more antivirals and drugs to help treat COVID-19 patients. But the fact that we will completely forget about the coronavirus cannot be counted on for now.

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