Will oil and gas be needed in a green energy world?

Trends tell about the prospects of “green” energy in the world, as well as about what place in the future will be occupied by traditional energy sources – hydrocarbons

Now our planet is undergoing the fourth energy transition in history: from energy from fossil hydrocarbons to “green” energy. But can new energy sources completely replace traditional ones, and is it really necessary? Or will the oil and gas we are accustomed to take their place in the green world of the future?

“Green energy” and “energy transition”: trends in our country and in the world

In the past two or three years, the interest of companies, universities and governments in green energy has grown dramatically. Official sources always cite decarbonization and reduced carbon footprint as the reason for this. However, the direction of industrial development is dictated mainly by the interests of big business, which is closely connected with politics. Even recent events can be an example of this. In Europe, the introduction of green or alternative fuels and electricity has increased due to the global energy crisis, and after February 2022 this adoption has accelerated even more as European countries strive to become energy independent.

In 2019, the European Union adopted a green energy development priority (European Green Deal), according to which it is planned to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and an amount of €2030 trillion is allocated for this until 0,6. In 2021, the President of the United States also signed a decree on the development of green energy (Green New Deal), which provides for the allocation of $ 2 trillion for investments in this area, and the achievement of 2035% clean electricity by 100. Thus, the energy transition in developed countries is proceeding at a rapid pace.

However, in developing countries, especially in Africa, Central Asia, and some countries of Southeast Asia, access even to traditional sources of electricity and fuel is very limited. Most likely, the energy transition in such countries will last for many decades, as there are no necessary investments.

In our country, things are going well with the transition to “green” energy, but the volume of investments is not as significant as in Western countries. Therefore, the process of “energy transition” proceeds more slowly. In November 2020, the president signed an executive order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In mid-2021, the government prepared and approved mechanisms to support the green energy industry until 2035, where it is planned to allocate ₽2025 billion in the period 2035-360 (which is equal to about $0,006 trillion compared to the above figures for Western countries).

Today, in our country, more than 80% of electricity comes from low-carbon technologies and is generated at gas, nuclear, hydroelectric power plants, as well as at facilities with renewable energy sources. The remaining less than 20% are mainly coal and oil. Until 2035, an increase in the share of “clean” energy is envisaged, although it is not specified to what level.

Industries where oil and gas are still indispensable

According to OPEC, at the end of 2020, oil consumption in the world was distributed by sector as follows:

• 54% of consumption falls on transport,
• 14% – for the chemical industry,
• 12% – for the agricultural industry, utilities and trade,
• 6% – for electricity generation,
• 14% – for other types of industry.

Even if it is possible to gradually completely transfer transport, agriculture and electricity production to renewable sources, more than a third of oil consumption will still remain in other areas. However, from the same OPEC report it follows that by 2045 oil consumption will not only not decrease, as we can assume from the above, but will even increase by about 20%.

Let us consider in more detail how oil is used in addition to fuel. Most of what surrounds us in everyday life is made of plastic and various synthetic materials: household items, office equipment, all home electronics, toys, dishes, plastic packaging, all paraffin products, interior and exterior decoration, some car elements (finishing, electronics, tires) and other vehicles, even clothes (nylon, acrylic, polyester), furniture items, chewing gum and much more.

After oil refining, oil waste is obtained, from which these materials are produced. Moreover, these materials are widely used in industry: for example, pipelines, power lines, and so on. Petroleum products are widely used in medicine and cosmetology: for example, in the creation of aspirin, streptocide, antibiotics, soap and shampoo, various hygiene products, nail polish, and lipstick.

The chemical industry is impossible without oil: all oils, solvents, varnishes, paints, even electrical insulating compounds are made from its products. Solar panels on which solar cells are installed are made from petroleum products. All the asphalt on which we drive and walk is partly made from oil: bitumen is used here – as a binder for stones and rubble. And even synthetic protein, from which cheaper food is made, is produced using petroleum products. Natural gas is used to produce antifreeze, acetic acid, mineral fertilizers, as well as varnishes, paints, glue.

Thus, we can unequivocally say that humanity is unlikely to be able to do without oil and gas. Our life is closely connected with them. Even if the world completely switches to alternative fuels for transport, there are a huge number of industries where hydrocarbons are used. Although their extraction and processing will decrease over time, they will not completely disappear.

Eco-friendly oil and gas – is it possible?

Oil and gas can not only be extracted from the bowels of the earth, but also synthesized artificially. In fact, the two main elements that make up hydrocarbons are logically carbon and hydrogen. Therefore, any substances containing these elements in a separate or combined form can be processed in such a way as to obtain liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons as an output. Bacteria come to help in this task. Biofuel production is a fairly well-known technology in which methane is formed during the processing of plant and animal waste by bacteria. However, the volume of such production is extremely low.

We are accustomed to the fact that coal is mined by the mine method, but this is not always economically feasible. Methane is often extracted from coal by drilling wells in coal seams, extracting water from the seams, as a result of which the pressure drops and methane is released (Coalbed Methane technology). However, the coal itself is not processed, and the volumes of gas released are quite large.

Currently, a number of scientific institutions and private companies are conducting research on the processing of coal by bacteria directly in the seams. Water is pumped into the coal seams through injection wells, containing bacteria that “feed” on the coal and produce methane, which in turn rises to the surface through the production wells.

Thus, biotechnologies allow the production of so-called “green” hydrocarbons. Moreover, companies involved in bacterial technologies have managed to legalize the environmental friendliness of such methane at the state level in the United States. But the question arises, how environmentally friendly are all these processes? In essence, the end consumer burns this fuel, resulting in the release of gases, including carbon dioxide and water vapor – that is, the impact on global warming still remains.

Symbiosis of oil and gas engineering and green energy

It is the symbiosis of engineering solutions in oil and gas and green energy that is the direction in which oil and gas engineers are already starting to work, gradually improving their skills, acquiring new knowledge and developing new technologies. Moreover, without this knowledge and experience, it will not be possible to subsequently find a qualified job.

For example, already now some oil and gas engineers are faced with the need to navigate the terms and technologies of “green” energy. They need to understand how:

• calculate the required power and dimensions of solar panels for installation at oil and gas facilities;
• moving elements can be used to generate electricity in various installations due to gravitational or reservoir forces;
• the high temperature of the produced fluids can be used for heating or generating the same electricity;
• use associated petroleum gas to produce, for example, hydrogen.

The most interesting thing is that this is not just the future, but the present. One of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, BP, has set its course for 2030:

• reduction in oil and gas production,
• bioenergy development,
• emission reduction,
• accelerated expansion of solar energy and offshore wind,
• development of new technologies in the field of carbon capture,
• hydrogen technology,
• installation of 100 electric vehicle charging points.

To do this, the company plans to concentrate more than 40% of its capital in the “green” business areas listed above.

Most of the largest companies, such as Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, Equinor, have similar goals. Many of them have large projects for wind, offshore hydrothermal and solar power plants. Middle Eastern (Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation), Far Eastern (PetroChina, Petronas) and (Rosneft, Gazprom) oil and gas companies have also embarked on the path of diversifying their business in the “green” direction. Therefore, in the future, the symbiosis of oil and gas engineering and green energy will only grow.

Green world of the future: what place will the oil and gas industry take in it?

The world is currently entering a new phase. All experts, both in the technical and humanitarian fields, speak about this, ranging from ordinary specialists to heads of state. Even representatives of religions and various non-traditional teachings – esotericists, astrologers, assure that the world will no longer be the same, and the new era is associated with creation, the development of the best qualities in man, harmony with nature, spiritual growth and improvement of all human activities.

It is quite clear that “green” energy and in general all “clean” technologies will develop. And people, companies, organizations that have not chosen this path of development will gradually lose their positions in society, business, and management. Countries whose activities also run counter to the development of “green” technologies will be forced to change their course. Therefore, the ESG concept does not give up its positions, but on the contrary, it is being improved and developed.

But what will happen to oil and gas? The question is rather in the horizon of forecasting. In my opinion, oil and gas production is not going anywhere in the foreseeable future – in the next 50 years. In the next 20–30 years, transport will be switched to electricity, some types of hydrocarbon consumption will also slightly decrease, respectively, their production may decrease by a maximum of 70%.

However, it is more likely that due to population growth and the development of new industries, this decrease is unlikely to exceed 30%. Ahead of space exploration, respectively, the need for materials, liquids and other things made from hydrocarbons will only increase. Will there be enough oil and gas reserves? Yes, according to various organizations, the world is provided with reserves (in traditional and unconventional reservoirs, foundation rocks) of hydrocarbons for the next 100 years.

As part of life in a new era, the symbiosis of green technologies and oil and gas engineering will have to play a crucial role. Humanity will have to bring carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions to an acceptable level. Moreover, the transfer of all transport to environmentally friendly energy sources can already solve this problem, and bring emissions to acceptable levels.

Scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences have proven the carbon cycle on the planet, which lasts about 50–100 years, with oxidation on the surface and reduction in the earth. Therefore, the remaining volumes of emissions are acceptable and will be absorbed within the framework of this cycle. Thus, the oil and gas industry will remain in the new era, will become more environmentally friendly and coherent (from the Latin cohaerens – “in connection”) with the development of civilization.