Contents
We already have the third wave of coronavirus in Poland – says Minister Niedzielski. In the US, experts are already concerned about the fourth. How many more waves of COVID-19 disease may be waiting for us? – We do not know this, but we can estimate how long the pandemic will last – says virologist Dr. hab. Tomasz Dzieiątkowski. His forecasts, also for the coming months, are not optimistic.
- The initially assumed seasonality of the coronavirus did not work out, but there are waves of increases in infections. Prof. Maragakis: the main factor is human behavior
- How to prevent COVID-19 waves and how long will the pandemic last? Dr. Dzieiątkowski: – As a society, we must finally start to think and remember to follow non-pharmacological methods: keep social distance, take care of hand hygiene, properly cover the nose and mouth with masks
- Virologist: it is very likely that due to the new variants of SARS-CoV-2 with increased infectivity, in March – April we can expect an increase in the incidence
- How long will the pandemic go on? Tomasz Dzieiątkowski talks about his forecast
- You can find more such stories on the Onet homepage.
The development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecasts for spring have not come true
In spring, experts tried to predict the development of the coronavirus pandemic. It was discussed whether there would be cyclical increases and decreases in the incidence of infections (i.e. the so-called waves), as was the case with other viral pandemics. At that time, it was considered the most probable that SARS-CoV-2 would retreat with the arrival of summer, and that the second wave of cases would come when the weather changed, i.e. in autumn.
This scenario was also partly based on the course of the Spanish flu pandemic, which attacked in three waves. The first flooded the world in the early spring of 1918. The virus was highly contagious, but the course of the disease was rather mild. The second wave of influenza started in August with a high mortality rate, mainly due to the addition of bronchopneumonia. The third increase in infections took place in the spring of 1919 – this time there were fewer deaths than in the second wave. In total, nearly 500 million people fell ill with Spanish around the world.
Returning to the scientists’ predictions at the beginning of the pandemic, over time it turned out that the assumed seasonality of the coronavirus did not work out in practice. – Clearly, SARS-CoV-2 does not show any seasonality of disease. We watched them both in the warm months and when it was cold – says virologist Dr. Tomasz Dzieśćtkowski. Even so, the statistics clearly show that infections are rising in waves.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/
How can this be explained?
– We absolutely have the third wave. This is not something that awaits us in the future. We already have the third wave. The question is, not “if”, but “what scale” it will be – admitted Minister of Health Adam Niedzielski on February 19. In the United States, models predicting the development of COVID-19 even predict a potential fourth wave.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/poland/
Since COVID-19 is not a seasonal disease, where are the rising incidence coming from? For scientists, the answer is clear. – The main factor is human behavior – emphasizes prof. Lisa Lockerd Maragakis, director of infection prevention at Johns Hopkins Medicine.
– It is enough to look at human behavior, not only in Poland – says Tomasz Dzieciatkowski. – If restrictions are loosened, people start to indulge themselves, forget about safety – as a consequence, infections increase. When the situation is very bad, restrictions are introduced again, individual industries, schools, etc. are closed. As a result, the pace of infections is slowed down. When the situation seems stable, the opening starts again – and the cycle repeats itself all over again.
- Coverage of the COVID-19 coronavirus [MAP]
This situation is well reflected in a comment by a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York. Prof. Theodora Hatziioannou says: – It’s like trying to help the virus, instead of stopping it She said, commenting on the relaxation of restaurant seating restrictions introduced in New York and Massachusetts on Valentine’s Day.
Meanwhile, the link between precautionary measures and COVID-19 cases is clear. – In areas where fewer people follow the sanitary regime and more people gather indoors to eat a meal, take part in religious practices or social events – rising incidence is the order of the day – says prof. Maragakis. The scientist points out that the increase in COVID-19 cases or hospitalizations will not be visible a week or even two after easing the restrictions. In her opinion, it may take six to eight weeks for the effects of changes in our behavior to show up in data at the population level.
How to prevent COVID-19 waves and how long will the pandemic last?
These questions were asked by Dr. Tomasz Dzieiątkowski. His answer is very specific. – First of all, as a society, we must finally start to think and remember to follow non-pharmacological methods – keep social distance, take care of hand hygiene, properly cover the nose and mouth – not with visors, half-visors or scarves, but with masks, preferably surgical or with a filter – he says directly .
- Which face shields provide protection and which don’t? “The point is to use decent masks”
In the virologist’s opinion, “the biggest stone, even a boulder” was thrown into a pandemic garden by the government itself. – One of the most important things in a pandemic time is to ensure that all these announced guidelines are followed. Otherwise, the person should not be instructed – as is the case today, but a mandate. After all, we have known about the safety rules during a pandemic and their importance for almost a year – emphasizes the scientist.
Of course, mass vaccination can also help to contain the waves. – Unfortunately, at the current rate of vaccination, it is difficult to imagine a significant percentage of the population vaccinating within six months – he estimates.
- How many vaccinations against COVID-19 have been taken in Poland? [Update]
What is the future of the pandemic? The nearest forecasts are not optimistic. – It is very likely that due to new variants of SARS-CoV-2 with increased infectivity, in March – April we can expect an increase in the incidence – warns the virologist, adding: – It is said that these variants are 60-70 percent. more infectious than the “original” coronavirus, so theoretically there may be more infections, but these are only estimates and very indicative.
- Niedzielski: the peak of the third wave at the turn of March and April
How many more waves of COVID-19 disease may be waiting for us? – We do not know this, but we can estimate how long the pandemic will last – says Tomasz Dzieśćtkowski. – In my opinion, it will be at least one more year. At worst, one and a half to two years. Typically, most pandemics resolve on their own after three years. However, I would very much like it to be mastered sooner. This, however, largely depends on ourselves, on our conduct.
You may be interested in:
- Order of vaccinations for COVID-19. New schedule for March
- How to wear masks in winter? The rule is more important than ever. Experts observe
- The number of hospitalized people and patients under ventilators is increasing. For the first time in three months
The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website. Do you need a medical consultation or an e-prescription? Go to halodoctor.pl, where you will get online help – quickly, safely and without leaving your home.Now you can use e-consultation also free of charge under the National Health Fund.