Why did BA.2 dominate the world? Experts point out three phenomena

Austria and Germany are battling the highest wave of COVID-19 infections since the start of the pandemic. There are also more infections in other European countries, in Asia, and the USA is afraid of the next wave. Variant BA.2 is indicated as guilty of this state of affairs. Omicron. We found out about its existence in December 2021, today BA.2 is responsible for approx. 86 percent. all sequenced cases. What happened that this variant of the Omicron quickly dominated the world? Experts suspect that this is the result of three phenomena that coincided in time.

1. WHO reports that the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant currently accounts for almost 86 percent. all sequenced cases
2. WHO notes that the increase in BA.2 cases is most pronounced in the Southeast Asia region, followed by the Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, Western Pacific and Europe
3. Several factors may have contributed to the “success” of BA.2. Experts point to higher transmissivity, weakening of immunity and lifting of restrictions by some countries
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WHO: BA.2 has become the dominant variant in the world

Less than a month after the Omicron was discovered, scientists in the UK identified its “invisible” version – now known as BA.2 (due to the lack of some genetic variation, it could not be initially distinguished from other variants of the coronavirus using PCR tests, hence the term “invisible”).

It is still unclear where BA.2 came from (it was first detected in the Philippines). It is known, however, that the BA.2 mutation quickly became the main variant of the Omicron in many countries, including India, Denmark and South Africa. Today it is already clear that BA.2 has become the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. On March 22, the World Health Organization informed about it, noting that the BA.2 sub-line is responsible for almost 86 percent. cases reported to WHO in the last month.

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The increase in infections caused by the BA.2 mutation is most evident in the Southeast Asia region, followed by the Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, the Western Pacific and Europe. Let’s add that China is currently struggling with the largest wave of COVID-19 cases since the beginning of 2020, local governments increasingly claim that BA.2 is to blame. The increase in the number of cases is also observed, inter alia, in in Great Britain, France, Italy. In Germany and Austria, they are the highest since spring 2020.

Foot. worldometers.info

Further part below the video.

“Now, at the beginning of spring, we all had hope and expected a different turn of events,” admitted epidemiologist prof. Ralf Reintjes, professor of epidemiology at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences. Why did the Omikron BA.2 subline dominate the world? Experts attribute this to three factors that occurred at one time.

Why did BA.2 dominate the world? Factor One: Greater Infectivity

The greater infectivity of this subline contributed to the faster spread of BA.2. This means it has a much higher spreading capacity than its BA.1 predecessor. Scientists suspect that this is due to unique mutations in this lineage. Eight mutations were detected in the BA.2 virus spike protein gene that were not found in BA.1.

Note that BA.2 is not considered more virulent than BA.1. This means that although it has shown increased transmission, there is no evidence that it causes “severe disease” or carried with it an increased risk of hospitalization. More research is needed to confirm this.

Why did BA.2 dominate the world? Factor two: lower immunity

The higher BA.2 transmissivity is influenced by the second factor – the resistance which decreases with time. Studies have shown that prior infection with Omicron’s BA.1 subline provides strong protection against BA.2. On the other hand, the natural immunity obtained after infection with earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants is weaker against Omicron.

As for vaccinations, The Conversation writes about a preliminary unverified study from Qatar. The researchers used data from the healthcare system regarding vaccination with mRNA preparations and the results of the SARS-CoV-2 test. Two doses of the vaccine have been found to reduce the risk of infection and mild disease from BA.1 or the BA.2 subvariant, but this protection is rapidly waning (to around 10% after four to six months).

However, taking a booster dose restored protection to levels close to baseline. Importantly, both vaccines were 70-80 percent. effective in preventing hospitalization or death, this protection increased to over 90% after a booster dose. Taking the above into account, it is worth quoting the words of prof. James Naismith: “Every effort should be made to triple the vaccination of as many people as possible, and vaccinate the most vulnerable four times,” he noted on the BBC. Meanwhile, the primary vaccination cycle is behind less than 58 percent. world population, booster – less than 21 people out of 100 (from ourworldindata.org).

Why did BA.2 dominate the world? Factor three: restrictions were lifted too quickly

Experts point to another factor that may have contributed to the “success” of the BA.2 sub-option, namely the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions by some countries. A few days ago, the Director for Europe of the World Health Organization, Dr. Hans Kluge, pointed out that European countries, where the number of coronavirus infections is increasing, lifted the restrictions too quickly. Instead of adopting a gradual, balanced approach, countries are “brutally abolishing restrictions, from too many to too few,” Dr. Kluge said.

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Whatever the cause of the increase in BA.2 infections, researchers believe this is a reminder that the virus continues to cause harm, especially among unvaccinated, undervaccinated and vulnerable populations.. “It is still a huge public health problem and will continue to be,” University of Edinburgh epidemiologist Mark Woolhouse told Reuters.

Finally, it is worth quoting the words of the Polish virologist, prof. Włodzimierz Gut, who emphasizes that the number of infections is mainly determined by human behavior. «The virus itself is a dead particle, it can’t be more infectious until it enters the body. It is people’s behavior that is more or less contagious. Therefore, the decisive factor is the appropriate distance and isolation. Because the virus variant is contagious when people don’t follow the rules»- emphasized the specialist.

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