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For several days, more than the statistics on the number of infected people, we are waiting for information on the number of tests performed for COVID-19, which has dropped dramatically in recent days. At a press conference on Tuesday, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said that reducing the number of tests performed is a sign of improvement. Are you sure?
- According to the health minister, the fact that fewer COVID-19 tests are ordered shows that the epidemic is slowing down
- MZ strategy is to focus on testing symptomatic patients. It is for this reason that the mandatory quarantine test has been dropped. Today it is over 400 thousand. potential new cases that are not tested
- “Neither the Minister of Health nor any official in the Ministry of Health orders tests in Poland” – explains the small number of tests, spokesman for MZ Wojciech Andrusiewicz
- The statistics are also influenced by a new method of reporting tested samples and test results by entities performing tests for COVID-19 commercially
- You can find more up-to-date information on the TvoiLokony home page
Minister of Health: Reducing the number of COVID-19 tests is a sign of improvement
– We are dealing with the stabilization of the daily number of cases, but it is not the only indicator that shows us that the pandemic is slowing down. This can be seen in other signals – in the number of tests, in orders for tests that come from the POZ system – said Minister of Health Adam Niedzielski during the press conference.
According to the minister of health, the fact that we are conducting fewer tests for COVID-19 is due to the fact that the GPs on which the testing system is based at the moment issue fewer orders, which in turn means that fewer symptomatic patients report to them. The opinion of the Minister of Health is shared by Professor Andrzej Horban, national consultant for infectious diseases.
– We test symptomatic people. Fewer tests mean fewer people are symptomatic. This is extremely positive. I believe that GPs act honestly towards patients and the system. They do not test asymptomatic, because it does not make sense – said Horban in Onet Opinions.
The professor also said that we will get the true picture of the epidemic when we multiply the number of newly diagnosed people by 5. Why? Because we assume that 20 percent. infected people develop symptoms.
– About 100 are infected daily people. Some of them suffer from clinical and symptomatic disease. Almost 20 people are in hospitals – this is a huge number. Some are mildly ill. These people do not require treatment, they require a week at home in isolation from others. We treat anyone with a fever and upper respiratory tract infection as if they were COVID-19 positive. If a person who is scarcely symptomatic has a mask, their interlocutor has a mask, and they keep their distance, the risk of transmission is low, adds Horban.
So fewer symptomatic patients = fewer tests = fewer infections diagnosed = epidemic is stabilizing. Certainly in the statistics. Is it certain that a smaller number of tests is a sign that it is better? Let’s look for other reasons for this state of affairs.
Strategy of the Ministry of Health – we test only symptomatic
The number of tests for COVID-19 is closely related to the testing strategy of the Ministry of Health. From September, symptomatic patients who will be referred for a test by a primary care physician have priority in referring to the test. The obligation to test people in quarantine after contact with an infected person, if they do not show signs of infection, has also been abolished.
It would seem that this is not related to the smaller number of tests for COVID-19, because the strategy has been in operation for some time. It is worth noting, however, that after the changes regarding the release from isolation and quarantine, we had more convalescents within a few days, and several thousand people were released from quarantine without a test.
The latest data from the Ministry of Health show that 434 people are currently in quarantine. If the old rules were to apply, each of those over 034 people would be referred for a smear. The number of samples taken would skyrocket, followed by the number of positive results.
Change in how commercial COVID-19 tests are reported
Another explanation for the declining number of COVID-19 tests is a change in the way samples tested and the results of commercially performed tests are reported. Until November 5, laboratories were not required to report contamination cases if the test was done commercially. The regulation stated that “medical diagnostic laboratories performing the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection are obliged to provide information on the number of diagnostic tests performed towards SARS-CoV-2 financed from funds other than public funds, each day by 10.00 a.m. the period of the previous day, to the ICT system referred to in para. 3 point 1, and in the case of no access to this system, in electronic form, to the minister responsible for health ”- which means that commercial samples fed the table” tests performed “and not the table” positive tests “.
From October 26, laboratories no longer need to report the number of COVID-19 tests performed for a fee. From the aforementioned November 5, they have to report the number of positive results for this. That is, commercial tests now feed the table “positive tests” and not the table “tests performed”.
On November 6, we had a testing record – 82 samples tested. Since then, the number of tests carried out has steadily decreased, and the number of positive results has remained more or less at the same level. It got to the point that the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in the total number of tests on Monday 16.11/60 was almost 19%. The change in reporting certainly influenced the number of COVID-XNUMX tests.
See the explanation: What is the high COVID-19 positive test rate?
The number of tests for COVID-19 depends on GPs
On Monday (16.11), the Ministry of Health informed that 35,1 thousand patients were performed on the last day. COVID-19 tests. This is the lowest result since October 12.10 – then 25 jobs were made. tests and reported 4394 infections. Why was this result so low, when, according to the Ministry of Health, we can test even 70-80 thousand. people a day?
When asked by Polsat News about this strange result, the spokesman of the Ministry of Health, Wojciech Andrusiewicz, said that, in line with the strategy, people who have symptoms of infection are directed to tests, and it is primarily family doctors who decide about it.
– As the primary care physicians themselves say, they decide who they refer for the test. This is what the coronavirus epidemic looks like. One day these people with symptoms come to the doctor more, the other less – emphasized the spokesman.
Earlier, Andrusiewicz, commenting on the small number of tests performed, said that “neither the Minister of Health nor any official in the Ministry of Health orders tests to be performed in Poland”.
– This result today (35 tests – editor’s note) is first and foremost the aftermath of the weekend, where these results are always smaller in the number of tests performed. Secondly, as you are observing the number of orders from primary health care, this is the first symptom of how many tests we will be doing in the next week, the next few days – explained the spokesman.
Who can benefit from the survey in a mobile point? Persons having the order:
- for examination issued by a primary health care physician (POZ) or in a hospital
- for examination issued by the sanitary inspection
- issued before being admitted to a care and treatment facility or a nursing and care facility
- before being admitted to a nursing home
- before being admitted to the hospice
- before being admitted to a dialysis center.
It is worth checking: Why is a doctor refusing a referral for a COVID-19 test? [WE EXPLAIN]
Fear of being tested for COVID-19?
Family doctor Krzysztof Pawlak points out one more detail. On Twitter, he wrote a short story of a patient who reported mild symptoms of COVID-19, but not to receive a test referral, but to receive a sick leave and calmly contract the infection at home.
How many people think like this particular patient? How many people in quarantine do not report slight symptoms of infection, but get sick at home, without a test? Due to the changes in the testing policy, we do not have full information about how many people are really infected, how many have been slightly or asymptomatically infected. Consequently, we also do not have information about actual healers who could share their plasma.
The editorial board recommends:
- What do the Ministry of Health’s COVID-19 statistics tell us? [COMMENT]
- How many COVID-19 tests are performed in voivodships? [as of November 16.11.2020, XNUMX]
- When is the national quarantine? [CURRENT DATA]
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