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The Delta variant “is faster, more agile and more effective in targeting vulnerable people than previous variants,” WHO’s Dr. Mike Ryan recently warned. According to the organization’s data, Delta has already reached over 100 countries. WHO warns it will soon become the world’s dominant coronavirus strain. Will there be major epidemic outbreaks? Scientists know when this can happen.
WHO: Delta is already present in over 100 countries
Research suggests that discovered in India in December last year. Delta variant (B.1.617.2) can be from 40 to 60 percent. more contagious than the Alpha variant (UK), being half as contagious as the original coronavirus variant that emerged in China at the end of 2019.
According to the GISAID database, which collects global data on the genome of the coronavirus, the Delta variant is present in 91 countries around the world, while, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), it has already spread in over 100 countries. This variant has contributed to a huge wave of cases in recent months in India, it accounts for almost all new cases in the UK, 90 percent. in Israel and over half of new infections in the US.
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While it represents a lower number of new cases detected on the European continent so far, the number of infections caused by the Delta variant is increasing significantly in at least a few countries. In France, it is responsible for at least 40 percent. new cases, in Italy for more than 20 percent. According to the data of the Portuguese Ministry of Health in Lisbon, 70 percent. the sequenced cases are in Delta. In Moscow, it is 90 percent, and in the whole of Our Country, 66 percent.
Experts warn: Delta will soon become the dominant variety in the world
The Delta variant “is faster, more agile and more effective in targeting vulnerable people than the previous variants,” warned WHO’s Dr. Mike Ryan on June 21. Delta is likely to infect partially vaccinated subjects more easily than other variants and may be associated with a higher risk of hospitalization.
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Many experts and the WHO warn that Delta will soon become the world’s dominant variety and will trigger outbreaks among unvaccinated peopleputting a strain on health systems and increasing the death toll.
There is limited research into whether this variant causes more severe disease than other variants. Early data suggests Delta is more likely to lead to hospitalization than Alpha, according to British government agency Public Health England, but this may be due to higher contagiousness rather than greater pathogenicity.
Based on almost 39 thousand. cases recorded in England showed that the Delta variant was associated with a 2,61 times higher risk of hospitalization within 14 days of sampling than the Alpha variant, the Guardian wrote in June. Within 14 days, the risk of an emergency visit to the emergency room was 1,67 times higher.
Delta Vaccine Efficacy. What is known?
A UK government study has shown that complete vaccination is effective against the Delta strain, but may be slightly less effective than against other strains, especially after a single dose.
One study found that two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine provided 81 percent. protection against the Delta variant compared to 87 percent. protection against the Alfa variant. In turn, one dose provided 33 percent. protection against the symptomatic course of infection caused by the Delta variant, compared with 51%. protection in the event of an infection caused by Alpha. This means, says the Financial Times, that a single dose is about 35 percent. less effective against Delta.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
As with any known variety, complete vaccination is effective against the Delta variant, at least preventing the serious course of the disease. Public Health England reported that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine against COVID-19 was 96 percent. effective, and AstraZeneca was 92% effective in preventing hospitalization for the Delta variant.
The Israeli health ministry has reached similar conclusions in the case of Pfizer-BioNTech, informing about 93 percent. effectiveness of prevention of hospitalization. However, when it comes to preventing a milder symptomatic course, the vaccination effectiveness for Delta was only 64%.
In a study published in Nature on 8 July, French scientists tested unvaccinated survivors to see how well the antibodies produced by the infection acted on Delta compared with those produced after vaccination. It turns out that the antibodies of people who have had coronavirus infection have not dealt with Delta as well as a single dose of Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca.
Whether the clusters of Delta variant infections that flood the European Union turn into larger outbreaks will depend on how many people have been fully vaccinated, as well as people’s behavior after many anti-epidemic restrictions have been lifted, researchers say .
The only way to prevent the virus from circulating is to immunize a sufficient proportion of the population, but the more contagious the virus is, the more people need to be vaccinated to stop it. In the case of the primary form of the coronavirus, the herd immunity threshold was estimated at 60-70%. population, but for the Delta variant it may be approx. 90 percent.
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No Western country has come close to that threshold yet. In Israel, only 61 percent. of the population were vaccinated with two doses of the vaccine, in Great Britain 51%, in the USA 48%, in Poland 47,5%, in France 44% and in Germany 43%.
Meanwhile, with 76 doses of the vaccine per 100 inhabitants administered in North America and 74 in Europe, the same figure is 48 for South America, 46 for Asia, and 4 for Africa.
Currently, WHO recognizes the so-called Alarm variants (Variants of Concern, VOC): British Alfa variant (B.1.1.7 with variants), South African variant Beta (B.1.351 with variants), Brazilian Gamma variant (P1 with variants) and Indian Delta variant (B.1.617.2 .XNUMX with variants).
The next four variants, Eta, Jota, Kappa and Lambda are classified as so-called. Variants of Interest (VOI).
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PAP / Joanna Baczała
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