Where is COVID-19 easiest to catch? American scientists have developed an infection risk model

Proven content

The latest epidemiological study published in the journal Nature identifies the places where coronavirus infection is the fastest. As you can guess, infection is favored by the crowd. But that’s not all. Scientists also selected the most vulnerable social groups and created a model to determine the risk of infection by location.

1. Where is the most common coronavirus infection? American experts have examined it
2. Research shows that people who live in poorer neighborhoods became infected more often
3. Scientists emphasize that the risk of coronavirus infection drops by 80 percent if we reduce occupancy in restaurants or gyms to 20 percent.
4. You can find more about the coronavirus on the TvoiLokony home page

Epidemiological data and population movement patterns were compared

The study was conducted by a team of scientists from Stanford and the Northwest Universities, using phone location data provided by the COVID-19 epidemic modeling application SafeGraph. The top 10 US cities were taken into account: Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington, and the movement patterns of 98 million people between March and May were tracked. The most visited places were then selected and the number of COVID-19 cases was investigated.

– The infections occurred very unevenly – said prof. Jure Leskovec, a computer scientist at Stanford University. – We chose about 10 percent. the most frequented places, which account for over 80 percent. all infections. These are crowded, closed spaces where people stay for long periods of time, he added.

The likelihood of infection was highest in grocery stores, gyms, restaurants, cafes, doctor’s offices, hotels, and churches.

1. See also: Working in a grocery store is a significant risk of COVID-19 infection. A disturbing study

The higher the income, the lower the likelihood of coronavirus infection

Based on data from the census, the research team selected people living in poorer districts. It turned out that they were infected more often. Scientists explain this fact by the density of population and the nature of poorer neighborhoods. Usually, shops, restaurants and fitness clubs are smaller there, and therefore also more crowded, which increases the risk of spreading the virus.

– The data show that one visit to a grocery store is twice as dangerous for a lower-income person than for someone better off – said prof. Leskovec. – This is because in shops where poorer people shop, there is an average of 60 percent per square meter of space. more customers. In addition, customers stay there by 17 percent. longer.

Kevin C. Ma and Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard School of Public Health write: “We have identified two main factors driving the increase in transmission. First, poorer neighborhoods tend to have a greater number of people who have to report to work every day. Hence, during the lockdown there is a lower decrease in mobility than in rich neighborhoods. Second, places visited by people in poorer neighborhoods tend to be more crowded than similar places in rich neighborhoods ».

How to use the conclusions of the study in practice?

“The results presented in the study are not surprising,” comments Dr. Julian Tang, a virologist at the University of Leicester in the UK. – Intuition suggests similar conclusions.

The authors of the study emphasize that if Chicago’s restaurants were operating as they did before the pandemic on May 1, 600 would have been there in a month. COVID-19 cases. The opening of the gym would translate into 149 thousand. infections, while the full opening of all businesses within a month would result in 3,3 million cases. Meanwhile, reducing the number of people staying in these places at once to 20% may reduce the number of infections by over 80%. At the same time, compared to the situation before the lockdown, we only lose about 40 percent. visits to restaurants and gyms.

The research can be useful in creating various strategies for exiting lockdown and helping to minimize the damage caused by it. To prevent infection cases from rising again, consider reducing the time we spend in gyms and restaurants, and reducing the time we spend shopping.

Unfortunately, the American model has some limitations. It is only a simulation, not an experiment, and does not include places such as schools, nursing homes and prisons, which have often been large outbreaks. Therefore, even its creators admit that more data needs to be collected and interpreted in order for it to play a role in securing the country’s exit from the lockdown.

The editorial board recommends:

1. Five diseases that can be confused with COVID-19
2. The CDC recommends the widespread use of face masks. Even in the spring, some experts claimed that they should only be worn by patients
3. Prof. Horban: We’ll get COVID-19 faster than the vaccine will protect us
4. The latest Polish recommendations for the treatment of COVID-19. Prof. Flisiak: it depends on the four stages of the disease

The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website. Do you need a medical consultation or an e-prescription? Go to halodoctor.pl, where you will get online help – quickly, safely and without leaving your home.