Where can the fourth wave hit the hardest? The worrying trend [MAPS]

There is no question whether the fourth wave will occur, only when it reaches its apogee, said the Minister of Health recently. At the end of September, the daily number of infections may reach one thousand. There may be as many as 50 of them at the peak of the wave. Experts still remind that what the autumn wave will bring depends on the number of vaccinated people. Taking this into account, you can predict where the situation will be most difficult.

1. Daily COVID-19 incidence rates are growing. According to Minister Niedzielski, within two weeks we can reach the level of XNUMX infections a day
2. The forecasts of scientists from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling (ICM) of the University of Warsaw say that the peak may be as high as 50. illnesses per day (the most pessimistic scenario)
3. Experts warn that the regions least vaccinated against COVID-19 will suffer the most in the fourth wave. On the maps prepared by Piotr Tarnowski, it can be seen that this is primarily the east of Poland
4. More information can be found on the Onet homepage.

COVID-19 in Poland. In two weeks, a thousand infections a day?

The number of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections in Poland is growing. The fourth wave is slowly becoming a reality. While on the worst day of July, the number of infections reached 167, the last days brought more than 500 infections a day. – There is no question whether the fourth wave will occur, only when there is an acceleration in the number of new infections, when this wave reaches its peak – said the Minister of Health on 3 September. – At the moment, we forecast that at the end of September the number may already reach one thousand infections a day (…) The end of October may mean the number of infections even five thousand a day – assessed Adam Niedzielski.

1. The R index in Poland is growing. Alarming situation in five provinces

Exceeding the barrier of 500 new cases per day changed these estimates slightly. – If the dynamics continues, it should be expected that the level of one thousand will not be achieved at the end of September, but within the next two weeks – commented the minister on September 8

What might the fourth wave peak look like and when might it happen? A few days ago, the forecasts of scientists from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling (ICM) of the University of Warsaw appeared. Scientists estimate that around 8 million people are susceptible to coronavirus infection, and the mortality potential is between 35. and 55 thousand people.

In an interview with RMF FM, the head of the ICM team, Dr. Franciszek Rakowski predicted that in the most pessimistic variant, we can expect around 50. infections per day, while hospitals should not be more than 22 thousand. people. According to researchers, the peak of the fourth wave will probably take place in mid-November. The wave itself may last until January 2022 (more about the new COVID-19 epidemic forecast in Poland).

The fourth wave of COVID-19 in Poland. Where can it hit the hardest?

The scenario presented above assumes that the authorities will not decide on any radical restrictions, that is, schools and workplaces will remain open. When making the forecast for the fourth wave, scientists took into account the degree of public vaccination and immunity after the disease. And while it’s known that forecasting is always at risk, vaccinating the public against COVID-19 is a factor in what really happens in the coming months.

1. Prof. Gut: We need to vaccinate 85% Poles. The deaths will be different

For weeks, doctors and scientists have been reminding that the development of the fourth wave depends primarily on the level of vaccination of the public, because vaccines against COVID-19 are the only weapon we have against SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile, we have fully vaccinated just over 50 percent. population. What’s more, looking at the map of Poland showing the state of vaccination, prepared by Piotr Tarnowski (he deals with analyzes and visualizations related to COVID-19), you can see a large discrepancy between the eastern and western parts of the country, to the disadvantage of the former.

The vaccination coverage rate in western provinces is 50 percent. and more. In the eastern part of Poland it is much less. The least vaccinated voivodeship in Poland (as of September 6) is Podkarpackie (36,1 percent – as of September 6), the second in the line is Podlaskie: 39,8 percent, and the third Lubelskie – 42,1 percent. Details (also broken down into poviats and communes) are presented on the map below.

The above data shows that the fourth wave will hit the areas worst grafted against COVID-19 the hardest. This is where the probability that the above-mentioned forecasts may come true is the highest.

The fourth wave of COVID-19 in Poland. We can decide the size of the pandemic

Let the words of experts be the answer to the above question. – It is the coronavirus that deals the cards and it really decides. But we have tools that allow us to co-decide on the size of the pandemic, and the basic ones are vaccinations – he said in “Onet Rano.” Dr. Sutkowski. – We all must also remember about hand hygiene, protective masks and maintaining a social distance of at least two meters.

Dr Lidia Stopyra spoke in the same vein in Medoneta. – Let’s remember that the development of the fourth wave depends primarily on the level of vaccination, but when it is insufficient – also on what infectivity we have, what sanitary regime we apply, what restrictions we introduce. Entire interview with Dr. Stopyra: Should children go back to school? The contagious doctor appeals to the parents.

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1. The fourth wave in Poland. There are two possible scenarios. One optimistic
2. What happened a year ago when the children returned to school? What could happen now? Forecasts
3. “Silent dying in hospitals” in the fall. Dr. Grzesiowski warns against the “invisible enemy”

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