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The Polish government has announced the next stages of easing the restrictions. After visiting hairdressers, shopping in shopping malls and having a good dinner in a restaurant, it’s time to go to the gym, tattoo parlor and cinema. What has changed in the last few weeks that the government has taken such steps? Looking at the reports – not much.
Disease curve without a clear peak
Almost three months have passed since the first case of SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected in Poland. During this time, we locked ourselves and the children at home, put on masks and took them off, we closed and opened forests and parks, and we followed the daily reports of the Ministry of Health on the new number of cases with bated breath. Looking at the charts, statistics and reading the opinions of experts, we can get the impression that the epidemic in Poland is still ongoing, and its end is not in sight.
On April 16, the obligation to cover the mouth and nose in public places came into force – not only in shops or churches, but also on the street, in the park and any other place where we could potentially meet another person.
Of course, there were exceptions: Coronavirus and the obligation to wear masks – the most important questions and answers
On April 16, the Ministry of Health announced 336 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection and the death of 28 people. The total number of infected that day was 7918 and the total number of deaths was 314. We had 7 active COVID-19 cases on that day (that’s the number of people infected minus those who have recovered and died). On May 27, on the day of the conference, the number of active cases was 11.
What has changed after 1,5 months that the government decided to ease restrictions on face masks? Daily statistics on new cases show that not much. After April 16, the number of new infections ranged between 241 (lowest May 16) and 595 (highest May 12). The number of active cases grew and the number of deaths exceeded 1000.
- The number of people who died from COVID-19 in Poland has exceeded 1000. What do we know about the victims?
In the program “Guest of Radio ZET” (May 26), Professor Robert Flisiak, president of the Polish Society of Epidemiologists and Doctors of Infectious Diseases, when asked what stage of the epidemic we are at, replied:
I don’t know where we are. It cannot be said that we are seeing the top. This is not a curve flattening, it is simply truncated at the diagnostic level.
Flisiak pointed out that for eight weeks we have had almost the same level of the daily number of cases – there is no upward or downward trend, which proves that the curve is “truncated”.
– The tip of the Gauss curve, according to which epidemics decompose, is drowning in the fog – added the expert, explaining that we do not perform enough tests to precisely assess the stage of epidemic development in our country.
The virologist Dr. hab. Tomasz Dzieiątkowski. In an interview with Medonet, he pointed out that despite the existence of various restrictions, the number of cases has not decreased for many days.
– There is a high probability that now that we can freely go to shops, churches, gyms or restaurants, the number of patients may start to increase again. I think if we let people walk the streets without face masks, they won’t wear masks in stores either. They will feel relaxed, they will stop being afraid, they will not remember about masks, also in more crowded places. Who will check them? Police? – he asks rhetorically.
So far we have had two “tests” of society – one during Easter and the other during the weekend in May. The government then appealed to stay home and obey the rules. It is hard to say whether we have listened to the government’s recommendations on the daily case chart, because the number of patients has not changed significantly, either in positive or negative terms.
See what the experts said:
- Let’s stay home for Christmas. The expert explains why it is important
- May weekend: the threat of the virus is paradoxically greater than it was a few weeks ago
High number of active COVID-19 cases
The argument that we are still before the peak incidence may be the fact that the number of active COVID-19 cases is still increasing. This is not related to the number of tests performed – there are more new infections, and the number of tests performed daily is approximately the same. On April 16, 12 tests were performed and 578 new infections were detected. Since then, the daily number of tests ranges from 226 (the lowest on April 7) to 226 (the highest on May 27.04), but usually it is around 31. tests a day.
Some people recover (on May 28, the Ministry of Health reported that a total of 10 people have recovered – 560 since yesterday) and some die. However, the number of active cases is still large – higher than in Germany, which has been hit much harder by the epidemic.
If we look at the diagrams of daily new cases in countries such as Italy, Germany, Spain or Switzerland, we can clearly see the peak of the epidemic and its slow decay. The Polish chart is most similar to the Swedish one. Swedes record many more cases of infection every day than Poles, but there is no downward trend in both of these countries yet.
The reproductive rate of the virus is declining
Minister of Health Łukasz Szumowski, who at one of the conferences, when asked what point of the epidemic we are, said that we are between the stage of extinguishing the epidemic and entering an upward trend. It is not entirely clear what he meant at the time, given that we have still not moved up or down on the chart since then.
Nevertheless, the Ministry of Health assures that we are on the right track to contain the epidemic, as evidenced by, for example, the virus reproduction rate (the so-called R index). During the press briefing, spokesman for the Ministry of Health, Wojciech Andrusiewicz, explained:
– Apart from one voivodeship – Silesia, where the virus reproduction rate is 1,33, in other voivodships we have a morbidity rate below one, i.e. one person infects less than one person.
What exactly does the reproductive rate of the virus tell you about? If its R value is higher than 1, it means that the epidemic is developing – one person infects on average as many additional people as the R coefficient indicates. If the R value drops below 1, the epidemic begins to slow down. When the reproductive rate of the virus remains sufficiently low for an extended period of time, the epidemic will eventually end.
He also added that there are currently no new outbreaks of coronavirus in the Silesian Voivodeship, and the existing ones have the status of closed ones. Even if the situation in the Śląskie Voivodeship has been brought under control, new outbreaks keep appearing.
Relatively many infections appeared in the last two days in the Lubelskie voivodship – on May 27, the Ministry of Health informed about 22 infections, and on May 28.05 – another 16. Lubelskie was one of the voivodships where there have been isolated cases recently. There may be more cases in the near future, because two priests from the parish near Lublin tested positive for coronavirus. The rector of the local parish asked all those who received communions in this church to contact the Sanepid. The church has been closed and will undergo disinfection.
More: Coronavirus outbreak in a parish near Lublin. The parish priest appeals to the faithful
New coronavirus outbreaks have also been reported in Warsaw. One was found in the Wolski Hospital, and the tests carried out so far have shown the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in both employees – 26 infections, and in patients – 33 infections. 18 medical staff are in quarantine.
More: New coronavirus outbreak in Warsaw. 60 people infected in the Wolski Hospital
A second bonfire appeared this morning at the center for foreigners in Warsaw’s Targówek. In total, 32 cases of coronavirus infections have been confirmed there. The center has been placed under quarantine.
It is possible that new outbreaks will also appear in other provinces. After all, Minister Szumowski himself said that the peak of the disease may be in the fall. I wonder if all the restrictions introduced in connection with the current epidemic will be lifted by then.
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