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According to scientists, herd immunity to COVID-19 will be achieved when 70 percent of the public will be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. The vaccination program was launched in Poland on December 27, and so far less than 200 have received the vaccine. people. – With the current rate of vaccination (an average of 21,3 thousand people per day), there are still 70 days to achieve herd immunity (2559%) – calculated Michał Rogalski, author of the “COVID-19 in Poland” database. That is just over 7 years.
- Assuming that 70 percent. adult population should be vaccinated to obtain herd immunity, in Poland 19 million people must be vaccinated against COVID-21. So far, we have vaccinated about 200.
- Minister Dworczyk announced that it is possible to vaccinate about 180 thousand. people per week. If this pace could be maintained, we would achieve population immunity after 817 days, i.e. in the spring of 2023.
- For now, however, the pace is slower. On average, we vaccinate a little over 20 thousand per day. The pace is also quite uneven – only less than 10 in the last XNUMX hours.
- You can find more up-to-date information on the TvoiLokony home page
We already have 200 vaccinated against COVID-19
The vaccination campaign against COVID-19, which began in Poland on December 27, last year, continues. For now, vaccinations are given to members of group 0, i.e. doctors, nurses and representatives of broadly understood health protection.
On January 15, the registration for vaccinations for volunteers from other groups is to start, and the actual vaccinations are to begin on 25.
- How many people in Poland have already been vaccinated against COVID-19? [Update 09.01.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX]
In the pre-Christmas period, the vaccination rate was not spectacular. Doses were administered to several to several thousand people a day, only on December 30 there were 22 thousand vaccinated.
On January 4, Minister Michał Dworczyk explained the slower vaccination rate.
– There are two reasons why this process is a bit slower. First, it was the beginning of the National Immunization Program and the Christmas and New Year period. Secondly, we would like to remind you that we divide each delivery that goes to Poland into two parts. Half of the vaccines go to hospitals where vaccinations are performed, and the other half are left in the warehouses of the Material Reserves Agency in deep freezing, so that each patient who receives the first dose has a 100 percent guarantee that he will be able to receive the second dose – he explained Dworczyk.
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At the beginning of the year, the rate increased – on January 4 and 5, more than 40 were vaccinated. people. However, there are still days when we vaccinate below 10. people – January 9.
According to Minister Dworczyk, from January 4, thanks to the supply of vaccines, we will be able to vaccinate approx. 180 thousand. people per week. For now, however, these words are not confirmed in reality. The vaccination campaign started 14 days ago, and less than 200 are vaccinated.
180 thousand vaccinations in seven days. When will we get herd immunity?
Let us assume, however, that the rate forecasted by min. Dworczyk will turn out to be possible. After what time we will get 70 percent. vaccination coverage of the society?
According to the demographic years of the Central Statistical Office of Poland, in 2019 there were 31 people over 433 years of age. In the group over 870 years of age, which is to be treated with priority in the first stage of vaccination, there are approx. 18 million people. Considering that not every adult can be vaccinated, let us assume that the population that can receive vaccination is 60 million adult Poles.
If we assume that it is enough when 70 percent of the population is vaccinated. of these, this means that 21 people should be included in the vaccination program. If we keep the vaccination rate at 000 weekly, we will obtain population immunity in 000 days (180 years and 817 months), i.e. in the spring of 2.
Assuming that we would like to obtain population immunity by the end of December 2021, approximately 58 people should be vaccinated every day. people. It is also worth remembering that the vaccine must be taken in two doses to ensure complete protection. This means that people from group 0 will have the date of the second vaccination already during the vaccination of the first group, which will probably also slightly slow down the whole process. Why? Because we have a limited health protection capacity and we can only make a certain number of vaccinations every day.
Added to this is the availability of the vaccine. Minister Dworczyk indicated that by the end of the first quarter of 2021 Poland may receive vaccines for 2,7 million people. Assuming that in stage 0, about 700 people will be vaccinated. people, for the first group there will be about 2 million doses.
In Poland, we have almost 10 million seniors (i.e. people aged 60+). To obtain herd immunity in this age group, about 7 million people need to be vaccinated. Assuming that 180 will be vaccinated. people from this stage per week, we will obtain immunity in the seniors group after 272 days.
Rogalski: will we end the vaccination campaign in 7 years?
The realities, however, turn out to be much less optimistic than the ministerial forecasts and plans. As calculated by Michał Rogalski, the author of the “COVID-19 in Poland” database, which actively comments on the coronavirus reality on Twitter, at the moment we vaccinate on average 21,3 thousand. people a day. Assuming that this pace is maintained, we will achieve population immunity (70% of the vaccinated) in 2559 days. It’s just over 7 years.
The editorial board recommends:
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- Sequence of vaccinations against COVID-19. Check which group you belong to [EXPLAINED]
- The vaccinated out of sequence should take the second dose of the preparation. Why? [WE EXPLAIN]
- Pfizer’s vaccine against COVID-19 works against two new mutations in the virus
- Where can I get vaccinated against COVID-19? List of vaccination points
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