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We all ask ourselves: When will the pandemic end? When will everything be back to normal? While Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki introduces new restrictions, we check what experts from around the world say about the end of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic.
- Scientists predict that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic may end in several ways and at different time intervals. The approval of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is crucial
- Analyzes for Poland predict a peak in the second half of April. In the worst period, we will diagnose up to 400 new cases every day
Four ways to end the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, according to a Harvard professor
According to Dr. William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medicine School professor, the pandemic could end in four ways, and it will likely end sooner than we think. First, if the coronavirus is found to be sensitive to the weather and becomes less virulent as it warms, the number of cases would naturally decrease. There is one downside to this scenario, however – the contamination will return when it gets colder again. “We hope that by then our healthcare system will be better equipped to help those who become seriously ill,” Haseltine writes in a column on Fox News.
The second scenario for ending the pandemic is that humans acquire immunity. If the majority of the population becomes infected and develops COVID-19, it can develop natural immunity. First, however, it takes time – Professor Haseltine predicts that up to 200 people could die before it happens. up to 1,7 million Americans, and secondly, there are no conclusive studies showing that COVID-19 disease gives immunity to recurrence.
Haseltine’s third scenario involves the development of a widely available COVID-19 vaccine. There are currently at least five potential vaccines at various stages of development. Unfortunately, even the best scenario assumes that they will be available to the general public in a dozen or so months.
In the fourth scenario, we have an accelerated development of therapeutic drugs that heal and prevent further infection. Various antiviral drugs and drug combinations that would be effective in treating COVID-19 are currently being researched.
- Check out our test and find out if you are at risk of contracting the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus
Haseltine notes in his column that even if we come to the end of the pandemic and manage to contain it, we should learn a lesson for the future. We are likely to face more deadly epidemics, so we should learn to deal with biohazards.
Mehamet Ceyhan, a professor at the Hacettepe University in Ankara, speaks similarly about the possible ending of the pandemic. “The coronavirus pandemic could end in three possible ways – population acquiring immunity, developing a vaccine, or mutating the virus in which it loses its potency.” Mark Woolhouse, a professor of epidemiology from the University of Edinburgh, is of a similar opinion.
Three ending scenarios, according to an Oxford virologist
Emilia Skirmuntt, a virologist at the University of Oxford, presented in an interview with the portal dlapiper.com three scenarios for the end of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic.
The first assumes that the pandemic will most likely stop at the turn of July and August 2020. This scenario assumes that some governments and the private sector have taken swift action as early as Q2020 XNUMX, but it is not known how long they will be able to sustain them.
The poorest countries with the weakest health systems will be the hardest hit and likely to be points of COVID-19 reappearance after its elimination elsewhere. This will cause little difficulty in resuming the normal functioning of society.
The second scenario assumes that The COVID-19 pandemic will be brought under control at the turn of April and May 2020. According to Skirmuntt, this will be the case if governmental, commercial and civic efforts are successfully continued from March to May. It is possible that transmission of the coronavirus could be reduced, with mortality and morbidity reaching levels in May that reflect seasonal norms. “Since coronaviruses mutate relatively slowly, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus will not survive in the human population” – says the expert.
The third scenario, the worst and the least likely at the same time, assumes that Mr.andemia will reappear in December. This has to do with the assumption that after China resumes production and distribution, the virus will reappear and spread again. However, this, Skirmuntt admits, is an unlikely scenario.
Important information for patients during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic:
- Coronavirus, cesarean section, sepsis. We ask the gynecologist if pregnant women should be afraid
- Doctors appeal to patients to fight the coronavirus together
- Online medical advice at the National Health Fund. Where to call to consult a doctor?
How will the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic develop in Poland? According to the ExMetrix company, which deals with social and economic forecasting, the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in Poland may reach approx. 9 and should be reached on April 20, 2020. Experts assume that the epidemic in our country will last a little longer than in China, i.e. just over three months.
According to forecasts, the fastest increase in the incidence in Poland may amount to around 400 per day, which will take place from March 28 to April 8, i.e. between the 25th and 35th day of the epidemic.
In an interview with Medonet, doctor Jacek Gleba also predicted that, based on the Chinese model, we can expect a peak in the second half of April, and the entire epidemic will last at least three months.
Read the interview: The peak of COVID-19 cases is ahead of us. Expert: we detect approx. 20 percent. coronavirus cases
Scientists and doctors agree, however, that it is not really possible to predict when the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic will end. The key to managing the coronavirus is finding a vaccine and effective therapeutic drugs to treat COVID-19.
We would like to remind you that the best prevention of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spreading is frequent hand washing with soap and water, avoiding crowds of people, disinfecting hands, not touching the face area and using common sense – stay at home if possible. Due to the state of the epidemic in Poland, there are many restrictions that are designed to slow down the transmission of the coronavirus. Let us follow them.
Have a question about the coronavirus? Send them to the following address: [email protected]. You will find a daily updated list of answers HERE: Coronavirus – frequently asked questions and answers.