When are you at the greatest risk of becoming infected with the coronavirus? Scientists have created the COVID-19 risk index

In what everyday situations is the risk of contracting the coronavirus the highest? «There is no correct answer to the question of what is safe and what is not. You just need to know what the risks are and decide if you are ready to take them »explains University of Pennsylvania oncologist and bioethicist Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel. So, together with two other scientists, he created the COVID-19 risk index, which estimates the dangers of our daily activities.

1. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel: There is no correct answer to the question of what is safe and what is not. You just need to know the risks of a certain activity and decide what risks you are willing to take
2. The degree of risk of infection is color-coded. From dark green (safest) to red (very risky).
3. The authors of the index emphasize that it shows what to look for when deciding to undertake a given activity and that the risk depends on how we approach it

The COVID-19 risk index – why was it created?

The COVID-19 risk index is a response to Americans’ doubts and anxiety. After the authorities relaxed the restrictions and the lack of detailed guidelines on how to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, many citizens did not know what behaviors were safe and what they carried the risk of falling ill.

Arizona epidemiologist, prof. Saskia Popescu, began to answer a whole series of questions from friends, but also those appearing on the Internet. Everyone seemed to have questions like “Can I eat in a restaurant?”, “Can I play tennis?” etc. ‘We found that people really have difficulty understanding the degree of risk associated with everyday activities,’ notes Prof. Popescu. Many people actually saw only two options: either you stay at home or you go out and put yourself in great danger. Meanwhile, as the professor emphasizes, “you can still live your life and not feel so limited by the situation related to the coronavirus epidemic”.

Prof. Popescu, along with two other scientists – Dr. James P. Phillips, director of disaster medicine at GWU Emergency Medicine, and Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, an oncologist and bioethicist from the University of Pennsylvania – decided to estimate the safest activities and which are associated with the highest risk associated with SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection. – There is no correct answer to the question of what is safe and what is not. You just need to know what risks are associated with a specific activity and decide what risk you are willing to take, explains Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel. This is how the COVID-19 risk index was created.

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COVID-19 risk index. When do you risk the least?

The ranking was based on four key factors:

1. Type of space (open or closed)

2. Duration of interaction

3. The presence of other people and their concentration

4. Related to dynamic exhaling of air – sneezing, screaming, singing, laughing

The degree of risk of infection is color-coded. From dark green (safest) to red (very risky).

Source: http://www.ezekielemanuel.com/writing/all-articles/2020/06/30/covid-19-activity-risk-levels

As emphasized by prof. Popescu, each of the activities involves risk, the only thing is to be able to reduce them as much as possible.

So which behaviors are the safest? They are shown in a green field. These included, of course, staying at home, but also walking (with or without a pet), jogging and cycling – alone or with another person (here, however, there is a risk of close contact or grouping of people). There is also a low risk of picnics attended by people other than those with whom we live and keeping a distance, as well as buying food or drinks to take away (although in these cases there is a risk of a high concentration of people).

COVID-19 risk index. Low and medium risk of infection

We take low to medium risk when practicing non-distance sports (tennis, golf); when shopping for groceries or other things (here there is a risk related to, for example, close contact with others or touching different surfaces).

The risk is higher, but still classified as moderate, when visiting an emergency department, where many people may be present; in a health center (close contact, possible crowds of people, we touch various surfaces) or at the dentist (where, in addition to the risk factors mentioned above, there is also the fact that you do not wear a mask as a patient). Scientists also included taking a taxi, visiting a museum, and eating meals in open-air restaurants to this level.

We take a medium to high risk when visiting the gym (close contact, touching the surface, often no mask), hairdresser / barber / nail salon (close contact, sometimes wearing a mask is impossible), working in the office (possibility of people gathering, touching surface, close contact), during a visit to a restaurant (e.g. close contact, no mask while eating).

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COVID-19 risk index. When do you risk the most?

Scientists classified the most risky activities as a visit to a bar / nightclub / participation in a party (e.g. closed space, large groups of people, close contact). Use of public transport and air travel (including confined spaces, frequent surface touching, probability of aggregation), participation in concerts and religious celebrations. The most risky behaviors also include practicing sports in which social distancing is impossible, crowd gathering during sports events, as well as visits to the cinema and theater performances.

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The authors of the index emphasize that it shows what to pay attention to when deciding to undertake a given activity, and that the risk depends on how we approach it. «For example, golf will be a low-risk activity if you play alone or keep a physical distance from other participants and wear masks when you are next to each other. However, if you don’t wear masks, you don’t keep your distance – the risk is high, Popescu explains.

Similarly, companies related to public transport introduce appropriate precautions – the obligation to maintain social distance, wear masks, use disinfectants, and thus travel by bus or train will be safer.

The index does not take into account the implemented safeguards, it only evaluates the activity itself, based on the four factors mentioned above.

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