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The Delta variant becomes dominant in the world, warned the WHO a few days ago. We know that the pathogen has already found its way to Poland. We also know that it is more infectious and virulent than the British version. And although we are pleased with the low infection rates, experts say straightforwardly: the epidemic situation is gaining momentum, although the statistics do not show it yet. How to avoid the worst? Experts from the Polish Academy of Sciences provide specific tips. There are seven of them.
- Scientists estimate that the Delta variant may be up to twice as contagious as other mutations. It is also known to be more virulent
- According to scientists from the Polish Academy of Sciences, it can be assumed that the Delta variant will become the majority variant in Poland in September
- Researchers estimate that this mutation is a much greater threat to Poland than, for example, to Great Britain. One of the reasons is the low level of full vaccination against COVID-19 (less than 34% of us)
- To limit virus transmission and avoid a high fourth wave, scientists are calling for compliance with the seven principles
- You can find more such stories on the Onet homepage.
We first heard about the variant of the coronavirus from India in March this year – at that time, a double-mutated variant of SARS-CoV-2 was identified there (it functioned under the name B.1.617, today it is called the Delta variant). In just over a month, the number of infections in India has increased from around 20. to over 400 cases per day. We all remember the photos of overcrowded hospitals and crematoria that were not keeping up with burning bodies. Today is the end of June and we already know that the “version” of Delta SARS-CoV-2 is starting to dominate the world. What’s more, it is known that a variation has appeared – it is called Delta Plus.
- There are already at least 200 cases of the Delta Plus variant worldwide. What is known about them?
Scientists estimate that the Delta variant may be up to twice as contagious as other variants. It is also known to be more virulent (its ability to penetrate and multiply in the body is greater). In The Guardian, Zoë Hyde, an Australian epidemiologist at the University of Western Australia, estimates that “a person infected with the Delta variant is likely to pass it on to about six others.”
- Are you threatened by the Delta variant? The degree of risk depends on several factors
In the UK, the Delta variant is responsible for 90 percent. new infections (with detections increased fivefold in less than four weeks). According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the European Union will face a similar situation by the end of August.
There is one more fact about Delta that must be kept in mind. «The data show that this mutation mainly affects unvaccinated people, accounting for more than two-thirds of all new cases. Meanwhile, fully vaccinated people continue to achieve high immunity » – scientists from the COVID-19 team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences remind. «Full vaccination significantly reduces the risk of falling ill, and in the case of illness it significantly reduces the risk of hospitalization. This has been demonstrated by studies by the UK’s Institute of Public Health for the vectored vaccine (AstraZeneca) and the mRNA vaccine (BioNTech / Pfizer) “, they write, noting that” there are indications that the same will be the case for the rest of the vaccines approved “.
- Prof. Cook: The Delta variant is not more dangerous for the vaccinated
The Delta variant is a much greater threat to Poland than to Great Britain
The Delta variant of the coronavirus did not bypass Poland. In an interview with Medonet, Dr. Aneta Afelt from the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences recalled the research of prof. Krzysztof Pyrć from the Małopolska Center of Biotechnology of the Jagiellonian University, which indicate that Delta appeared in our country (in a detectable percentage) at the end of May (individual cases were recorded at the end of April).
Members of the COVID-19 team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences note that Delta now “accounts for a few percent of all infections and is spreading at a pace.” In their opinion, “it can be assumed that in September it will become the majority variant in Poland as a whole”. What is worse, in the opinion of scientists, the Delta variant poses a much greater threat to Poland than, for example, to Great Britain. “The Delta variant in Poland may require another lockdown” – they write directly in the position published on June 28.
This is due to three factors: the high contagiousness of the Delta, the opening of the economy, and the low level of full vaccination against COVID-19 (especially for those at risk). According to the latest data from ourworldindata.org (as of June 28), less than 34 percent of the vaccination course is complete. of us. Detailed data complete the picture of the situation. Dr. Aneta Afelt quoted them in an interview with Medonet: – 40 percent. among 80+ people did not take the vaccine, 30% did not. people over 65. The situation is very uncertain for the youngest adults who do not feel threatened. Meanwhile, we know that if young people pass the infection asymptomatically (and they can pass it repeatedly) and they do not get vaccinated, unfortunately they risk becoming a transmitter of all other variants to which they will not be immune.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
The expert says directly: – If we do not get vaccinated, if we do not reach people who are digitally excluded – i.e. the elderly, people in the provinces, people with intellectual or physical disabilities, then in these conditions, unfortunately, the fourth wave scenario may very easily come true in the fall .
- The entire interview with Dr. Aneta Afelt: Where are we in the epidemic? Dr. Afelt warns: the situation is gaining momentum
How to beat Delta? A plea for compliance with the seven principles
However, there is good news – it is ourselves and our behavior that largely determines how the future will turn out; to what extent will it be possible to limit the spread of the coronavirus, how high will the fourth wave of COVID-19 cases be. And it’s not about distant plans and resolutions. It is about our conduct in the here and now and in the weeks to come. In the above-mentioned position, scientists from the COVID-19 team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences call for compliance with a few simple rules. There are seven of them.
1. Meetings in large groups should be arranged outside. Avoid closed rooms and crowds.
2. Let us refrain from participating and organizing meetings until all participants have completed the full vaccination course. The availability of doses is currently high in Poland – anyone willing can sign up for vaccination within a few days.
3. Remember to ventilate the rooms regularly. We wear masks in the presence of unvaccinated people or if we are not sure that everyone around is vaccinated, for example in a shop, at work, or during a service.
An Australian epidemiologist also writes about the necessity to wear masks in The Guardian. «We should demand masks in public places at the first sign of an epidemic (…). Last week, the New South Wales government (where an outbreak of the Delta Coronavirus variant has emerged) recommended their use, but has not issued a warrant. Unfortunately, we know that the voluntary rules for masks lead to insufficient use of masks, and this puts the entire community at risk »reminds Zoë Hyde.
4. Let us take care this summer to fully vaccinate ourselves and our loved ones. Acquired immunity will avoid the high fourth wave of the virus and the re-closures of schools, shops, restaurants, hotels, theaters, museums, cinemas and churches. Currently, vaccinations are available to anyone over the age of 12. To stop the transmission of the Delta variant and avoid a re-lockdown, immunization of children and adolescents should take place before students return to school. Let’s take care of vaccinating our children now.
It is worth mentioning here Hyde’s opinion that high adult vaccination rates are not enough to contain the Delta variant. «We will probably have to vaccinate more than 80 percent. of the entire population – including children and adolescents – before we are safe »(currently only about 5% of Australia’s population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19).
5. Let’s rest and let’s take care of our mental health. Good condition and mental resilience will allow us to deal more effectively with the fourth wave of the pandemic.
6. Choose your holiday travel destinations with care, avoiding places where the number of infected people has started to increase (to avoid hassle back home), and above all, the sites of virus variants with increased infectivity. The virus travels inside our organisms over long distances – let’s not make it easier for it to come to Poland.
7. In the event of even minor symptoms, we should report for tests as soon as possible. The current good epidemiological situation can be maintained by testing, isolating patients and quarantining unvaccinated contacts. Diagnostics is a necessary first step to effective monitoring of the state of the epidemic, including the detection and control of the first outbreaks of new virus variants. The disease may thwart vacation plans, but failure to control the epidemic will necessitate renewed national restrictions, which will affect all of us.
«This summer we have a unique opportunity to use our previous experience in the fight against the pandemic (…) Let us not repeat a mistake from a year ago and let us not be persuaded that the virus is in retreat. We are richer by a year of experience, and in the fight against the virus, we have science and vaccinations on our side. What summer and autumn will look like depends on our actions »remind the scientists.
Finally, let us quote the words of an epidemiologist from Australia: “For a variant that is more contagious and more virulent, there is no margin for error and it is better to overdo it than to do too little.”
You may be interested in:
- Delta is the most dangerous variant of the coronavirus. When will it peak and stop mutating?
- Why should survivors be vaccinated against COVID-19? Important discovery
- Can I vaccinate against COVID-19 in the heat? The doctor explains
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