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The global coronavirus pandemic is still not over. Public health experts suspect it will take at least five more. The direction in which it develops depends entirely on ourselves. 20 specialists from various fields developed three possible scenarios.
- Scientists around the world are wondering what the coming years will look like with the coronavirus in the background. From time to time there are different forecasts
- Now, specialists in many fields at the International Science Council have identified what needs to be done to minimize the knocks and risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic
- Adequate coverage of the world’s population and cooperation between governments are key
- Currently, the vaccination rate in the world is around 60%. We should strive to achieve at least 80 percent.
- You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page
The pandemic is not over yet
The coronavirus pandemic is dying out. In Poland, the daily number of infections is falling, since the beginning of May it is only three-digit, on May 16 it was even below 100 (the Ministry of Health informed that day about 95 cases of COVID-19). The declines can be seen in European countries (although the numbers are much higher there), India, Brazil and Mexico. Even in Southeast Asian countries where infections have recently spiked, the situation is calming down.
This does not mean, however, that the era of the coronavirus is over. COVID-19 will stay with us for a long time. Experts expect another, though not so dangerous, wave of infections in the fall. Long-term forecasts are also developed. Recently, the report of the International Science Council (ISC), a non-governmental body associating scientific organizations from many fields and countries (Poland is represented by the Polish Academy of Sciences). 20 experts in public health, virology, economics, behavioral sciences, ethics and sociology have developed three scenarios that could emerge by 2027.
However, this is not an attempt to predict the future, but rather an indication of the directions of action that may minimize the effects of the pandemic in the future.
Optimistic scenario
If the percentage of adults fully vaccinated against COVID-19 worldwide rises from the current 61% to over 80%, many lives could be saved while reducing the risk of new variants emerging, the authors of the report believe. Our mental health, world economies and sustainable development plans will also benefit.
Of course, even in the most optimistic assumption, the coronavirus will not disappear completely, but its spread will be much easier to control.
However, according to ISC experts, such a scenario is unlikely. Government efforts have so far focused on developing local strategies rather than international cooperation, which has led to a pandemic increasing rather than shortening.
Realistic scenario
Taking into account the activities carried out so far around the world, experts estimate that the level of hitching will not exceed 70 percent. In such a scenario, the coronavirus will become endemic, there will be seasonal increases in different countries, which will result in problems with the efficiency of health systems. New outbreaks of infection will also require updated vaccines and the use of antiviral drugs.
According to the ISC report, by 2027 the most likely scenario is “deepening global inequalities”, and the UN’s 2015 targets in the “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” will be set back by a decade.
«The main points are very clear. Even if the acute phase of the pandemic comes to an end in countries with high vaccination rates, the risk remains high as very many people around the world do not have access to an effective vaccine, »the report reads.
The authors of the forecast point out that new variants may still appear, therefore constant vigilance and continuous development of vaccines and possible therapies are essential. «There is no field that is left untouched by COVID-19. Governments need to be aware that the many effects of a pandemic will not be rapidly diminished. Governments cannot pretend that the crisis is over just because the death rate has declined. There are still many years of difficulties and challenges ahead of a huge group of people »- they emphasize.
Women, children and the elderly will be the most exposed to possible threats. And more broadly, low-income countries will face the very likely collapse of the healthcare system and increasing uncertainty over the availability of food.
Pessimistic scenario
The third scenario is the bleakest. The report’s authors fear that if nationalist and populist tendencies grow, trust between national governments will decline, as will trust between governments and their citizens. This will lead to a decline in the number of vaccines available worldwide.
The scenario has been dubbed “A Lost Opportunity to Recover”. As geopolitical tensions increase, protectionist policies of individual states may seriously hinder global cooperation. This will make efforts to overcome the global crisis much more difficult.
The vaccination rate of the world population would in such a case not exceed 60%, and low-income countries would still have limited access to the first doses of the vaccine and antiviral drugs.
«As a result, COVID-19 will no longer be controlled. We will witness renewed high waves of contamination in many parts of the world“- we read in the report.
Needed cooperation
To avoid such a scenario, governments need to work together, invest in health systems, integrate scientific advice systems, and tackle growing inequalities in education and wealth.
The report also urges governments to resist the temptation to lower climate targets for short-term gains. In their opinion, progressing climate change and environmental degradation increase the likelihood of further pandemics.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the value of international scientific cooperation, even in the face of cascading environmental threats and geopolitical tensions,” said Mami Mizutori, UN Secretary General for Disaster Reduction.
– We must renew our efforts to build a multilateral system that will deal with inequalities and prepare us for the next crisis. Whether it is another pandemic, climate change or an armed conflict, we have the opportunity to learn lessons from the last two years. If we do not do this, the SDGs will no longer be achievable, she added.
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