What’s next for Omikron? Two scenarios of scientists from Israel – pessimistic and optimistic

The Omikron variant has been causing concern among epidemiologists around the world for some time. Also in specialists from Israel – a country known for its quick and radical actions. So far, several cases of Omikron have been found there. How will the new variant affect the further course of the pandemic? Two options clash – the pessimistic and the optimistic.

1. The Omikron variant was detected a month ago. So far, it has appeared in over 50 countries on all continents
2. Previous reports indicate that it is much more contagious than the Delta variant, but on the other hand – it has a milder course
3. According to prof. Erana Segal from Israel, the exponential increase in infections caused by Omicron is a matter of a few weeks, followed by an increase in the number of hospitalizations
4. In turn, prof. Dror Mevorach believes that Omikron may be the variant that virologists have been waiting for and will make COVID-19 a milder disease than before
5. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Omikron variant – two possible scenarios

The Omikron variant, according to the GISAID database, has been detected in 52 countries. One of the first was Israel. More than a dozen cases have been officially reported there. No patient required hospitalization. In September, Israel faced a very high, record-breaking wave of infections since the beginning of the pandemic. The situation has now stabilized. As of early November, the number of daily COVID-19 cases rarely exceeds 600.

1. Israel was preparing for the coming of Omicron. He reacted quickly and decisively

COVID-19 experts there are divided over the outlook for a pandemic caused by the Omikron variant. Some believe that the current low level of contamination is “the calm before the storm”, while others hope that Omikron is cause for optimism, because it is “the variant we would like”.

The rest of the article under the video.

The first option is represented by prof. Eran Segal, a government adviser and computing biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science. In his opinion, Omikron will soon dominate Israel and trigger the fifth wave of the pandemic. – Considering what we learn about this variant, the next wave is rather inevitable. It’s a matter of a few weeks, he said.

Prof. Dror Mevorach of Hadassah Medical Center. Zakaźnik believes that the currently observed low number of patients in covid wards may be sustained in the long run, because Omikron “may reduce the number of severe cases of coronavirus”.

Omikron variant – no death yet

Omicron appeared in over 50 countries around the world, but – according to the World Health Organization – no fatal case was found until Friday.

According to Segal, the lack of deaths and the fact that so far only a few cases have been detected in Israel and none of them is serious, are irrelevant when assessing the risk of Omikron. More time is needed for the number of cases to rise, followed by severe cases.

1. Dr. Fauci: Looks like Omicron is not that dangerous

“Every time people say that there are few cases, then as infections increase exponentially, their numbers skyrocket from 100 to 1000,” he says. Then, as she emphasizes, an increase in the number of hospitalizations begins to be visible. So the fact that the number of cases is low should not weaken our vigilance. Be prepared for the fact that they will start growing very quickly, which will translate into more hospitalizations and deaths. “It is very unlikely that the Omikron will turn out to be gentler,” he says.

The biologist believes that the exponential increase in disease that occurs with successive waves could be really fatal in the case of Omicron. – There is growing evidence that the Omikron is more portable than the Delta. Currently, the R index in Poland is around 1, with this new variant it may increase to 1,2 or 1,3. If it lasts longer, it can be very bad, ‘he says.

“There is no doubt it will be the dominant strain,” he adds. Segal points out that even if Omikron does not cause more severe cases, it will respond to more new infections.

Variant of Omikron – there are reasons for optimism

The current situation in Israel is vividly presented by Dr. Mevorach. Enjoying the sight of empty hospital wards, he conjures up a joke about a man falling from the Empire State Building who, as he flies past the 20th floor, thinks “not bad at the moment.”

However, he admits that he is optimistic. Mainly due to vaccines administered in Israel to children from five years and up, as well as new antiviral therapies, which is “a new era in the fight against COVID-19”. The information about the lack of deaths and reports of a mild course of the disease also give hope.

1. Bogdan Rymanowski: all those who died in Ireland were vaccinated. How is it really?

– Maybe this is the variant we’ve been waiting for? There is a chance that the coronavirus will disappear. And if it doesn’t, the ideal option would be one that, although transferred more quickly, would have milder symptoms, she says.

“ Omikron could represent this option, and it could turn the coronavirus from a dangerous, deadly disease into one that is more like the flu – which means milder infections and lower mortality, ” he adds.

Also read:

1. How is the infection with Omikron done? The mutation does not have two symptoms
2. «Suddenly I heard that because of the Omikron variant I would not go anywhere»
3. Omicron spread to the hotel Infected guests had no contact with each other

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