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The world is engulfed in another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. “What can we expect from it?” Is a question that everyone seems to be asking themselves. Unfortunately, there is no unequivocal answer. Its strength will depend, among others on the country’s immune profile. What is the situation of Poland in this connection? What resilience have we built as a society? Are we safe in the accelerating wave? And actually from what? There is good news as well as disturbing.
- WHO: Europe is at the center of the new COVID-19 wave
- The sizes of the waves will vary from place to place. Epidemiologist: in some countries it may be 5%, in others 30%.
- The resilience that a given society has built up plays a key role
- Dr. Aneta Afelt: Research shows that post-vaccination and vaccine immunity lasts between six and 10 months. So it can be assumed that we are still safe
- It doesn’t mean we don’t have to do anything. Dr. Afelt says directly who should protect himself now and how
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
“The sizes of the waves will vary”
In the last two weeks, the number of coronavirus infections in the world has increased by 30%. – recently admitted the World Health Organization. The WHO says bluntly: Europe is at the center of a wave’s resurgence. “We are seeing a much more intense (than before) COVID-19 outbreak sweeping through Europe again,” WHO Program Executive Michael Ryan recently admitted. What to expect after the next coronavirus hit? Probably all countries that are seeing an increase in infections are asking themselves this question now. And each of them has to answer for itself.
You can find the rest of the article under the video.
A recent article on nature.com focused on the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants and their role in the future of the pandemic. The computational epidemiologist from the University of Bern, Christian Althaus, quoted in the text, points to a very important thing: “countries likely have different immune profiles now, as their COVID-19 wave histories and vaccination rates vary.”
As a result, the wave sizes BA.4 and BA.5 will vary from site to site. «It could be 5 percent. (infected – red) in some countries and 30 percent. in others. It all depends on their immune profile »- emphasized the scientist.
The new wave of COVID-19 in Poland. Prof. Gut about what awaits us
According to ECDC data, at the end of June, 59,6 percent of the vaccine is after two doses. of us, the booster dose (the so-called third dose) was taken by 32 percent. This data is not looking good.
However, it is also important to remember about hybrid immunity (a combination of immunity after COVID-19 and after vaccination) and immunity developed after disease. At the same time, we must not forget that immunity decreases over time. So what is the situation of Poland? What is our immune profile against the coronavirus?
A few days ago, the health minister argued that the decline in immunization, or resistance to coronavirus, “is not fast”. “Back in January, we had only eighty percent of immunizations in the society, and (…) at the turn of April and May it was above 90 percent, so it does not seem that this immunization is drastically dropping” – said Adam Niedzielski.
The virologist prof. Włodzimierz Gut. «With COVID-2, we no longer have to worry about health service performance. Over 19 percent people have already come into contact with the virus. Deaths and heavy mileage on a massive scale are also no longer a threat to us »- he assessed in an interview with PAP.
Immunity after storage and after vaccination. Dr. Afelt is straightforward
We also asked Dr. Aneta Afelt, a health geographer and member of the COVID-19 advisory team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences about the level of our immunity. Research analyzing how much of our population has come into contact with the coronavirus actually shows that 90% of the epidemic in these three years is Poles may have come into contact with it – admits Dr. Afelt and points to another issue: – The question is whether it happened through vaccination or whether it was a natural contact. This is crucial for the quality of immunity and therefore also for the health effects of contact with the pathogen. It depends on whether we will walk over them with a “dry foot” or struggle with a long covid.
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Aneta Afelt reminds that scientific works clearly show that “vaccination does not protect against reinfection, but protects – and very well – against serious illness, long-term complications and finally against the risk of death”.
– Of course, getting sick also gives you immunity. However, studies show that it has a slightly different nature, it does not provide long-term protection. Remember that full vaccination involves three doses: two basic and one booster. Such a scheme prepares the body well for virus identification, the scientist emphasizes.
«We are still safe»
– We passed the last wave of the disease six months ago. Research shows that post-vaccination and post-vaccination immunity lasts between six and 10 months. So it can be assumed that we are still safe – says Dr. Afelt. However, this does not absolutely mean that we can safely observe the epidemic situation. Especially if we are more exposed to coronavirus infection and its consequences than others.
Dr. Aneta Afelt calls: – People at risk should exercise particular caution right now. They should simply go back to the rules used previously: frequent hand washing, a protective mask, keeping a distance, organizing social gatherings in the fresh air.
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We should also remember that a vaccine will probably appear in the fall, which will take into account the Omicron mutations. People who have not received vaccination or it was incomplete (especially in those at risk) should not ignore it – she warns.
We encourage you to listen to the latest episode of the RESET podcast. This time Kamila Wykrota, the resilience trainer, will tell us about what resilience is. How does the ability to adapt to changing circumstances and react to adversity affect our quality of life? You will find out by listening to the latest episode of our podcast.