What is the Delphi method and how to use it?

Hello dear readers! The Delphi method is a special tool that allows you to develop optimal solutions of any complexity, as well as conduct a qualitative assessment of these solutions and, of course, predict further events.

A bit of history

The name originated from the Delphic Oracle. This method was originally created by Olaf Halmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher to predict what impact scientific discoveries of the future will have on the way we wage war. It happened around 1950-1960 in Santa Monica.

Scientists have been working at the RAND Research Center trying to invent a tool to predict accurate events. When it was completed, it was Kaplan (he was an employee and professor at the University of California) who gave it such a name. If you remember, the temple of Delphi was a place where information was systematized and accumulated, it was recorded on special plates and considered true and the only true one.

The work of the modern oracle was built on the same principle. Only information about the future appears not thanks to seers, but from ordinary people who are competent in the area where the difficulty arose. This happens through a survey, in writing or electronically.

  Structure

1. Initially, a group of experts is selected. The number of participants is not limited, but no more than 20 people are recommended, otherwise the results will be significantly delayed, and the work process will become more complicated.
2. When the expert staff is ready, each of the specialists receives the same task — having processed the topic of the question, draw up a research plan and questionnaire, or simply break the problem into smaller complexities.
3. Next, a group of analysts is selected, who consider all the lists created by experts and highlight similar points from them. After that, a new questionnaire is created, based on the received general data, and sent back.
4. Now experts are making additions and their own adjustments to the updated general list. That is, we get, for example, 20 different opinions and views on the same problem.
5. The revised questionnaire is sent back to the analysts who try to find similarities in the responses to create updates and send back so that the group can this time develop their own solutions to the problem. During this period, the effectiveness and relevance of the proposed methods are evaluated, and the resources necessary for the implementation of the planned actions are checked.
6. Analysts are again trying to analyze the answers. If they discover radically different points of view, they will certainly bring them up for discussion so that the previous group, in turn, either gives arguments in defense of their ideas, or reconsiders their adequacy and appropriateness.
7. Each step will be repeated until all risks and “weaknesses” disappear, and, of course, until all experts come to a consensus. It is desirable that there are no more than 5 such tours, otherwise most of the necessary and valuable information will be lost. And the interval between them is no more than one month.

variations

The above method is considered a classic, but there are situations when a decision needs to be made as soon as possible, so Express Delphi is very popular. It allows you to analyze the problem and come to a consensus in just a few hours, you only need to prepare a good technical base.

That is, each participant must have a computer connected to one common network. The whole process of analysis and selection of the most optimal option is carried out quickly, without deep processing of the material provided. Despite the fact that this method is very convenient and effective, it has one drawback that significantly affects the result — due to time constraints, specialists do not have time to carefully consider the task facing them and give an objective assessment of the conclusions of the others.

It’s not even worth giving an example here, you yourself know how haste and inattention to details usually end. Therefore, if someone’s life or health depends on this method, then it is better to use the traditional step-by-step instructions in compliance with the time frame.

Recommendations

• It is recommended to involve competent specialists who have knowledge regarding the problem that has arisen. Only not of a general orientation, but from different areas, then it will be possible to consider the issue from different angles, agreeing on the conclusions of experts.
• Before starting work using the Delphi method, it is necessary to clarify the following information:

  — How exactly will the work be done? That is, where the participants will be located, how they will analyze the information and where to send the results.

  Who will be responsible for making the final decision? Who will decide that enough is enough and it is time to complete this process?

  – Are there other ways in which it would be possible to control and double-check the results?

  — Approximately, what options do you expect to receive in the end? What exactly are you striving for?

• Give experts time to reflect on their findings, as well as gain new knowledge on the topic.

In what cases is it applied?

Delphi allows you to make predictions by systematizing the opinions of various groups of people about any situation. Therefore, it is used mainly to evaluate long-term problems, identify a topic and build a judgment on the basis of various statements.

In combination with other techniques, it will be an excellent tool that you can rely on in the future. It is used most often in order to consider both personal prospects in the future, as well as technical, organizational ones.

Advantages and disadvantages

+ Participants do not intersect with each other, they may not even know each other and have no idea with whom they agree on their opinion in the process. And this is convenient for those who experience excessive stress from the very thought that they will have to communicate with someone and defend their opinion, argue their point of view, and so on. In addition, the type of temperament also has an influence on the quality of work, because no matter how professional a person with an introverted character accentuation is, it will be much easier for him to give his assessment of what is happening without entering into direct contact with the rest of the participants in the process.

+ There is no pressure on experts to reach certain conclusions. Therefore, the study will take place without falsifying the results, which is important for obtaining the most honest and objective judgments.

– The number of participants is unstable, as the process is time-consuming and time-consuming, which is why people can “fall out” for various reasons.

— If the majority of the group members will have superficial knowledge about the complexity that has arisen, due to inexperience and so on, then, accordingly, such superficial and erroneous decisions will be taken into account.

Conclusion

And that’s all for today, dear readers! The practical application of this method is more suitable for companies and corporations, but if you want to analyze the situation with the inclusion of a smaller number of people, or even on your own, then I recommend subscribing to updates or joining groups of social networks. In the near future we will consider many more such methods. Strength to you and success!

I also recommend reading an article about the Ishikawa method, a very effective method.

The material was prepared by Zhuravina Alina.