Psychologist Gary Klein gives a story about firefighters who entered the house where the kitchen was burning. They started flooding the building with water, when suddenly the head of the fire brigade shouted: «Let’s get out of here!» As soon as the firefighters ran out of the kitchen, the floor collapsed. It was only later that the firemaster realized that the fire was unusually quiet, and his ears burned incredibly. These sensations, according to the firefighter, activated the «sixth sense of danger.» He knew there was danger, but he didn’t know what it was. Subsequently, it turned out that the fire broke out not in the kitchen itself, but in the basement, under the place where the firefighters stood.
Everyone is familiar with similar stories about the intuition of experts: the grandmaster, passing by the players in the park, announces that black is waiting for a checkmate in three moves; the doctor makes a complex diagnosis to the patient at a glance. Expert intuition seems like magic, but it’s not. In fact, each of us demonstrates the mastery of intuition many times a day. We identify anger by the very first word on a phone call; entering the room, we understand that it was about us; we quickly react to subtle signs that the driver in the next car is dangerous. Our everyday intuitive abilities, though familiar in their mediocrity, are no less amazing than the amazing insights of an experienced fireman or doctor.
The psychology of accurate intuition does not contain any magic. Perhaps it was best summarized by Herbert Simon, who, by examining the thought process of grandmasters, showed that after thousands of hours of practice, chess players see the pieces on the board differently. Simon, irritated by the attribution of supernatural properties to the intuition of experts, once remarked: “The situation gave a clue, the clue gave the expert access to the information stored in memory, and the information gave the answer. Intuition is nothing but recognition.”
We are not surprised when a two-year-old child looks at a puppy and says, “Dog,” because we are used to the ordinary miracle of recognizing and naming objects. Simon is trying to say that the wonders of expert intuition are of the same nature. Correct intuitions occur when experts, having learned to recognize familiar elements in a new situation, act accordingly. Correct intuitions come to mind with the same ease with which babies exclaim: «Dog!»
Unfortunately, not all expert guesses come from professional experience. Many years ago, I met with the director of a large financial corporation who had invested several tens of millions of dollars in Ford Motor Company shares. I asked him why he decided that, and he replied that he had recently visited an automobile exhibition, which he really liked. «What kind of cars do they have!» he repeated as an explanation. He made it clear to me that he was guided by an inner feeling, and was very pleased with himself and with his decision. I found it interesting that he didn’t seem to be asking himself the single question that an economist would consider most important, which is, «Is this stock now below cost?» Instead, the director listened to his intuition — he liked the cars, he liked the company, he liked the idea of buying shares in it. From the information we know about the principles of stock selection, we can conclude that he did not understand what he was doing.
The area of heuristics that Amos and I explored doesn’t help us understand why this financier bought the stock. In recent years, heuristic theory has developed, expanded, and is able to provide a good explanation for such actions. The main achievement is that now emotions are given much more space in understanding intuitive decisions and choices. The decision of this financier today would be explained by the heuristic of affect, when decisions and judgments are made on the basis of direct feelings of likes and dislikes, with little or no thought or argument.
Faced with any challenge—whether it’s choosing a move in chess or making an investment decision—the intuitive thinking mechanism kicks into full gear. If a person has the right knowledge, intuition recognizes the situation, and the intuitive decision that comes to mind is likely to be correct. This is what happens to a grandmaster: when he looks at the board, only strong moves come to his mind. When the question is difficult and there is no qualified solution, intuition still has a chance: the answer will quickly come to mind, but it will be the answer to another question. The chief investment officer faced the difficult question: “Should I invest in Ford stock?” But his choice determined the answer to another question, easier and more related to the original one: «Do I like Ford cars?» This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: faced with a difficult question, we answer an easier one, usually not noticing the substitution.