What awaits us after Omikron? Scientists about possible “surprises”

The Omikron superwariate continues to spread around the world. The best example is the gathering pace of the fifth wave in Poland. However, there are countries that seem to have had the worst behind them. So there are questions, what will come after the Omicron? Hans Kluge of the WHO believes that “we are in for a period of peace.” Some scientists, however, expect possible “surprises”. An article on the future of the pandemic appeared in the journal Science.

1. Scientists hope that the huge number of cases caused by Omicron has strengthened immunity at the population level. This means that future epidemic waves may be less devastating
2. Unfortunately, it is not certain how long this immunity will last. It is also not known how the coronavirus will continue to evolve, so also how often breakthrough infections will occur and what the consequences will be.
3. There are more issues that worry researchers. It is possible that the Delta variant will come back, or Omicron and Delta recombination may occur, and eventually new dangerous mutations may emerge. There is also one scenario that – although unlikely – could spell another pandemic
4. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Kluge: Omikron has moved the pandemic into a new phase. What could that mean?

We all remember the alarming information when the madman Omikron was detected in mid-November 2021. There was widespread concern that the coronavirus has mutated on an unprecedented scale and is spreading very quickly. More than two months have passed since then. Omicron is still spreading around the world, but there are countries where the situation is improving. And although a huge number of people fell ill, and the situation put the health care of these countries and the medical workers themselves to another test, there is also something extraordinary: a feeling of optimism about the future of the pandemic. “Scientists say that in countries where many people have been vaccinated or infected, the worst may end,” Science notes.

In a recent interview, WHO Regional Director for Europe, Hans Kluge, admitted that Omikron has moved the pandemic into a new phase. “We predict there will be a quiet period before COVID-19 is likely to return at the end of the year, though not necessarily with the severity of the pandemic,” Kluge said. The WHO regional office for Africa also recently reported that there has been a sharp decline in the number of cases in the region and a decline in deaths.

Scientists hope that the gigantic level of infection caused by Omikron has strengthened immunity at the population level, which means that future waves may be less destructive. Some scientists note, among others. to the fact that it is unclear how long this immunity will last. We also still do not know how SARS-CoV-2 will continue to evolve and therefore how often breakthrough infections will occur and what the consequences will be. What else Omikron will do remains the great unknown. It is possible that “surprises” await us. What is of particular concern to scientists?

Further fate of the pandemic. What is particularly worrying for scientists?

The Omicron lines are a worrying issue. There are countries where the predominant line BA.1 seems to give way to the line called BA.2, suggesting that it is more portable. Even so, “BA.2 is unlikely to cause a separate wave,” believes virologist Tom Peacock of Imperial College London. Nevertheless, it may cause “further increases in the Omicron wave or slow its decline in non-peak countries”.

1. An “invisible” version of the Omicron has been discovered. He could have caused a huge wave of infections in Europe

Another possible scenario is the return of the Delta variant. Science points out that Omikron is spreading so fast now that it can bypass an existing immune response. However, as resistance to the Omikron mutation grows, its advantage will disappear, so it is possible that both variants will be able to compete on more equal terms (if Omikron does not eliminate Delta sooner).

1. Omicron in the vaccinated. Who will attack and who will avoid him? There is an answer

It is also possible that Delta and Omicron will recombine (ie that the genetic material of these mutations will be exchanged and, consequently, a new one will be created). “It could lead to another difficult winter,” says virologist Christian Drosten of the Charité University Hospital in Berlin. There are likely to be completely new worrying variants as well. – I think the virus might still surprise us. We must approach the future of the pandemic with greater humility, says Boghuma Titanji.

These are not all the worrying scenarios scientists are considering. Most pessimistic however, it seems that the emergence of a variant capable of avoiding not only our antibodies, but also the T-cell response, which protects against serious disease and death. As Science emphasizes, no variant has so far done this. “The likelihood of that happening is, I think, slim,” says Shabir Madhi, a vaccinologist at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. “But if it does, it really is another pandemic.”

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