The prospects for a full-blown nuclear conflict remain low, but it is important to understand how events might hypothetically unfold. Biologist Jeffrey Ladish, who studies global catastrophic risks, describes three scenarios
Three destruction scenarios
There are now about 14 nuclear warheads in the world, a significant decrease from the peak numbers of the Cold War – in 1968 there were about 70. Full-scale war between large countries (for example, the United States, Western European countries, Russia and China) atomic bombs leads to three scenarios of hypothetical destruction of people:
- kinetic destruction;
- radiation;
- abrupt climate change.
Kinetic Destruction
By this term, Jeffrey Ladish means the shock wave that forms after the explosion. The analyst emphasizes that the world “simply does not (and never will) have so many atomic bombs that it would be possible to destroy people kinetically.”
Even these dry data show that if all the nuclear warheads suddenly exploded in all the cities of the world, only 21% of the population would die from the shock wave. You can calculate the impact of an explosion on any part of the world in more detail on this map.
Radiation
Jeffrey Ladish writes that in the event of the explosion of all 14 thousand nuclear warheads, radiation will cover 112 million square meters. km of land. On paper, this may look like the successful destruction of all people on the planet, but in reality, these indicators will be reduced by three factors:
Dramatic climate change
Simulation of climate change in the event of a nuclear confrontation was studied by scientists as early as the second half of the XNUMXth century. They concluded that it would lead to massive fires and emissions of several hundred million tons of soot into the atmosphere. This will reduce the amount of incoming sunlight, which in turn will reduce the average air temperature by nine degrees. Experts predict that it will take about seven years for the veil of soot to begin to disappear, and it will take another three years for sunlight levels to recover. Also, a nuclear war can lead to significant fluctuations in the temperature of the water in the Pacific Ocean, which will entail strong monsoons.
Nevertheless, when asked whether these events will lead to the complete destruction of mankind, one of the researchers stated that the probability of such an outcome “ranges from 1 in 10 thousand to 1 in 100 thousand.” Modern technologies will help to survive, as well as many “doomsday vaults”, where there are tons of seed reserves for the restoration of agricultural production.