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The coronavirus epidemic has a disastrous effect on the demographic situation in Poland. «DGP» even writes about the «state of emergency». According to preliminary data, in the last year there were the fewest births since the Second World War and at the same time the highest number of deaths – notes economist Rafał Mundry. «Drama» – he comments on Twitter.
- DGP: we recorded the biggest drop in the history of the January fertility rate. In January, 18 percent were born. children less than in the same period a year earlier
- The low number of births in January this year is combined with a high number of deaths.
- In 2020, the fewest children were born since the end of World War II, and the number of deaths was the highest. Mundry: «Demographic deficit of 140 Drama!”
- More information about the current information can be found on the Onet homepage.
In January about 1,6 times more deaths than births
«We will have a baby boom in December and January? Who knows »- in the spring of 2020, the media speculated. It was expected that the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, and hence forced closures at home, would result in a wave of birth at the beginning of the new year. Today it can be said that these forecasts did not come true, and very much.
«We have had the biggest drop in the history of January’s fertility. For more than a decade it has not been so bad », wrote« DGP »recently. The PESEL data show that 27,2 thousand were born in January. children, by 5 thousand less (18%) than in the corresponding period of 2020.
– This confirms that the expectations expressed in the media that when young people have more time, more children will be born, were exaggerated. This example cannot be applied to the martial law. Today, the appearance of children is the result of a decision rather than a coincidence – commented in «DGP» prof. Irena Kotowska from the Warsaw School of Economics.
Meanwhile, we currently have the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, an emergency which is “not conducive to making long-term decisions such as having children”. Will these plans be realized once we deal with the coronavirus? Of course, this is not known, the more so as it is also influenced by factors such as the pace of economic recovery, the situation on the labor market, etc.
The low number of births in January this year is combined with a high number of deaths. According to data from the Registry of Civil Status made available by the Ministry of Digitization, 43 people died last month. This means that in January there were about 861 times more deaths than births.
- The population in Poland in 2020 is the lowest in over a decade
Most deaths and fewest births since World War II
Demographic changes provide a picture of the situation when we observe them over longer periods of time. However, the situation does not look optimistic.
If we look at the data on births from the last 12 months, it turns out that 2020 was the third worst year with such a low number of births since the Second World War (according to GUS data quoted by DGP, 355 children were born). It is possible that this year will be the next worst period since 1945.
As for deaths, the fact that 2020 will be a record year in terms of the number of deaths was observed in mid-December. The forecasts were confirmed by the data from the Registry of Civil Status. They show that in less than 53 weeks of 2020, over 480 died. people. A year earlier, there were 401 deaths, i.e. by approx. 79. less. It is as if a medium-sized city has disappeared from the map of Poland.
- Record number of deaths in Poland in 2020. Most since World War II
The demographic situation in Poland is well illustrated by the graphic shared on Twitter by Rafał Mundry, a doctoral graduate.
It shows that more or less from mid-2018, the number of births has clearly decreased and the number of deaths has increased. The real earthquake began in the last months of 2020. If we put these data together, it turns out that in 2020 the fewest children were born since the end of World War II, and the number of deaths was the highest. «Demographic deficit at the level of 140 thousand. Drama!” Mundry summarizes briefly.
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