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A virus’s reproductive rate is used by epidemiologists to track a virus’s ability to spread to humans. It is this factor that many people attach importance to in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus epidemic. The lower reproductive rate of the virus tells you that the coronavirus is spreading more slowly. What is the analysis of this parameter in the context of COVID-19?
The lower reproductive rate of the virus gives hope that the COVID-19 pandemic will stop developing and will eventually slow down. That is why this parameter is pointed out by the rulers who are trying to monitor the spread of the coronavirus and, if possible, ease social restrictions. However, specialists point out that the virus’s reproduction rate is not an ideal tool, so one has to take into account the deviations of theoretical analyzes from the actual situation.
What exactly does the reproductive rate of the virus tell you about? If its value (R) is higher than 1, it means that the epidemic is developing – one person infects on average as many additional people as indicated by the R factor. value of R falls below 1, the epidemic begins to slow down. When the reproductive rate of the virus remains sufficiently low for an extended period of time, the epidemic will eventually end.
In the fight against the coronavirus, governments around the world use preventive measures in the form of various restrictions. They are connected with introducing social distance and closing places where large groups of people gather in a small area. Limiting interpersonal contact is to reduce the reproduction rate of the coronavirus – less social contact means less new infections.
In the last week of April, there was information about an increase in the reproduction rate of the virus in Denmark. The change from the R value from 0,6 to 0,9 was recorded after the opening of schools and kindergartens. The example of Denmark can therefore show a link between the relaxation of social restrictions and the spread of the coronavirus.
The virus reproduction rate can be used to determine how infectious a disease is before taking preventive measures. For the coronavirus, the base rate is around 2,5-3. For comparison, the value of this parameter for seasonal flu is around 1,3, and for measles as much as 15. This means that COVID-19 is not as contagious as measles, but is spread more easily than the seasonal flu.
In Europe, since the introduction of bans and restrictions, the reproduction rate of the coronavirus has averaged between 0,6-0,9. TVN refers to such data from the Financial Times. Meanwhile in Poland, as of April 28, the value of the coefficient was 1,11 – this information was provided by the spokesman of the Ministry of Health, Wojciech Andrusiewicz.
Also read: The coronavirus primarily affects the cells of the nose, lungs and small intestine
Limitations of the reproductive rate of the virus
The viral reproduction rate is a parameter calculated from mathematical models that rely on data such as new cases and deaths. Simulations that take into account social behavior conducive to an epidemic are also taken into account. Therefore, it is not easy to accurately measure the value of the rate, especially if there is no precise data on the number of new cases. In the case of coronavirus, this is particularly problematic due to the asymptomatic cases of infection and the limitations associated with testing.
Some of these obstacles have been circumvented by countries such as China and South Korea. Common tests for coronavirus were introduced there, as well as a system for tracing contacts between infected and healthy people. So accurate monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic not possible in most countries.
Due to a number of factors, virus reproduction rate measurements may not be accurate. It is enough for the results to differ by a few tenths for the indicator to change from the promising end of the epidemic to an R value above 1. Nevertheless, the reproductive rate of the virus remains the most reliable method of assessing the epidemiological situation. However, when interpreting it, specialists recommend that you be cautious.
Have a question about the coronavirus? Send them to the following address: [email protected]. You will find a daily updated list of answers HERE: Coronavirus – frequently asked questions and answers.
Also read:
- When will the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic end?
- The prime minister announces the relaxation of restrictions due to the coronavirus. Is it safe?
- Coverage of the COVID-19 coronavirus [MAP]