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Delta is more contagious, but not more aggressive, said Prof. Agnieszka Szuster-Ciesielska from the Department of Virology and Immunology at the Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin. In her opinion, the fourth wave of coronavirus in Poland will hit the eastern and south-eastern regions the most, where it is least vaccinated.
- Delta is estimated to spread around 60 percent. faster than the UK variant. One person infects eight more, and the other infects eight
- Vector vaccines, ie AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, provide about 60% protection against infection with the Delta variant, and genetic vaccines, ie Pfizer and Moderna – about 80%. They all protect against the severe course of COVID-19 within 90 percent. – explained prof. Szuster-Ciesielska
- Expert: I believe that the fourth wave may start in Poland in the second half of August. In the countries around us, the situation is slowly starting to alarm, e.g. in Germany or the Czech Republic, where there is a 20% increase in infections compared to week to week
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage.
«The Delta variant is more contagious because it has a higher reproductive rate – one infected person can infect eight more. And they got another eight. Delta is estimated to spread around 60 percent. faster than the British variant »- said Prof. Ciesielska.
Delta: One person infects eight more
As a result, hospitalizations due to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection are more than doubled in the world. As the virologist explains, the reason is not that this variant is more aggressive, but that it infects more people in a short time. “Delta is more contagious, but not more aggressive,” she noted.
The virologist emphasized that it is not only direct contact with the patient that causes infection. «All you have to do is walk past the infected person or just enter the room where they previously stayed. Such cases have already been in Australia. This proves how dangerous this virus is »- she added.
She pointed out that for the course of the disease or the treatment process, it does not matter what variant of the coronavirus we are infected with, because there are no very significant differences between them in causing the symptoms of the disease.
“However, this may have consequences for the effectiveness of the antiviral response. I mean, will the immunity of a particular person be enough to repel an attack by a new variant of the coronavirus, including survivors who have had contact with earlier variants. The situation is similar in the case of vaccines, which is why producers also plan to modify their products »- said Prof. Szuster-Ciesielska.
Delta protection: one dose is not enough
Vector vaccines, ie AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, provide about 60% protection against infection with the Delta variant, and genetic vaccines, ie Pfizer and Moderna – about 80%. They all protect against the severe course of COVID-19 within 90 percent.
– These results are for people who are fully vaccinated. It should be noted that after taking only the first dose, the effectiveness of protection varies between 10-30%. – added the virologist.
In her opinion, soon in our country we will start to observe an increase in infections due to the spread of the Delta variant in Europe.
Fourth wave in mid-August. It will hit eastern Poland
«I believe that the fourth wave may begin in Poland in the second half of August. We do not feel it yet, but this is a temporary situation, it will change any day. It cannot be otherwise, since in the countries around us the situation is slowly starting to be alarming, for example in Germany or the Czech Republic, where there is a 20% increase in infections compared to week to week »- emphasized Prof. Szuster-Ciesielska.
According to the virologist, Delta will hit the East and Southeast regions the hardest, because that’s where they are least vaccinated. Therefore, in her opinion, it is likely that the restrictions will be regionalized and not a nationwide lockdown.
«I suppose that already known solutions will be introduced, such as covering the mouth and nose outside, restrictions in shops, hours for seniors, limits on people in hotels and restaurants. However, when and where it happens depends on the epidemic situation »- the expert noted.
She added that it is difficult to say at this point whether students will be able to return to school from September or whether the learning will be hybrid or remote. The key, in her opinion, would be the issue of vaccinating children over 12 years of age, because they also transmit the coronavirus.
“In addition, research on the efficacy and safety of the Pfizer vaccine for younger age groups is ongoing, and its completion is scheduled for September this year” – added the professor.
She noted that in Poland there is a large percentage of adults who do not intend to be vaccinated, and only this would make the youngest feel safe.
Children will pay for adults who do not want to vaccinate
“It can be said more bluntly that, in a way, children will pay the price for the fact that adults do not want to vaccinate, because they will simply get sick” – added the virologist.
In her opinion, in Poland, as in France or Australia, more important privileges for the vaccinated should be introduced, e.g. admission to the cinema or a restaurant only for them.
«I do not believe that this is a segregation of society, only those who do not want to be vaccinated think so. Why should vaccinated people feel uncomfortable or unsafe about being in the same room with unvaccinated people? » – said prof. Szuster-Ciesielska.
In an interview with PAP, she noted that, in addition to Delta, another variant of the coronavirus has been confirmed in the world – Lambda, which originates in South America, was initially called the Andean variant. Its presence has been confirmed in 30 countries. WHO classified it as the so-called variant worth your attention.
«Preliminary studies show that it is spreading even faster than Delta. We don’t know if it’s more aggressive yet. It cannot be ruled out, however, that it will soon be qualified for the so-called Special attention variant, similar to Delta. According to official data, Lambda is not in Poland yet »- added the professor.
Author: Gabriela Bogaczyk
Have you been infected with COVID-19 and are worried about the side effects? Check your health by performing a comprehensive test package for convalescents.
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