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The coronavirus outbreak in England is developing faster than the reasonable worst-case scenario anticipated by the authorities for winter, according to SAGE’s scientific crisis advisory group papers.
- Under a reasonable worst-case scenario, 19 will die from COVID-85 during the winter. people
- The October 14 document indicates that the situation is worse than expected
- The number of people suffering from COVID-19 requiring hospitalization is already higher than assumed in the scenario
- According to SAGE, the best way to stop an outbreak is a short, two- or three-week national lockdown
- More similar information can be found on the TvoiLokony home page
A reasonable worst-case scenario is used by officials and the public health service to plan for the coming months.
According to him, during the winter 19 will die from COVID-85. people. SAGE also warned that the daily death toll in England is in line with this scenario for now, but “it is almost certain it will exceed it in the next two weeks”.
The document, which was prepared on October 14, indicates that the situation is worse than expected.
Source: https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/gb
Scientists estimate that by mid-October every day in England from 43. up to 74 thousand people were infected with the coronavirus (the number of actual infections, not detected ones, which is much smaller and at that time amounted to several thousand a day). “This far exceeds the prudent worst-case projection where the number of daily infections in England throughout October remained between 12. a 13 thousand » – written in the document.
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The report added that the number of people suffering from COVID-19 in need of hospital care is already higher than assumed in the scenario.
It has been pointed out that if the number of cases drops in the very near future, the higher than expected number of deaths “may only last three to four weeks”. “But if R remains above 1, the epidemic will deviate further from the predicted scenario,” it wrote. Since then, R – the number indicating how many consecutive people are infected by the average of each patient – has remained above 1.
But even if the number of cases were brought under control immediately, deaths above forecast for another month could be expected due to the mean time between infection, hospitalization and death.
As early as September 21, SAGE was suggesting to the government that the best way to stop an outbreak was a short two- or three-week national lockdown.
The British government has so far been reluctant to implement a nationwide lockdown, even for a relatively short period of time. It followed a regional approach, tightening restrictions in those areas where the number of infections was increasing. However, in light of increasing statistics, this approach was unsustainable.
On October 31 in the evening, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that a nationwide lockdown will begin in England from next Thursday, which will last until December 2. The restrictions will be slightly milder than in the initial phase of this spring.
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As then, there will be a recommendation to stay at home except for important reasons such as work if it cannot be done remotely, study, essential shopping, caring for a deprived person, and exercise. People from different households will not be able to meet in closed rooms (with the exception of a few specified cases, such as childcare or “support bubbles” created by people living alone). In open spaces, it will be possible to meet only one person outside the household.
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All pubs, bars and restaurants will be closed, although they will still be able to operate in the take-away and delivery system, as well as all shops except those selling basic necessities. Contrary to the restrictions introduced in late March in response to the first wave of the epidemic, learning in schools and universities will continue to be on-site rather than remotely, and industrial plants and construction sites may continue to operate. There will be no limits when it comes to leaving home for individual physical activity, professional sports competitions will continue to take place. There will also be no recommendation for people who are particularly prone to falling ill due to illnesses to stay at home constantly.
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The decision to lockdown applies only to England, as health care is a decentralized competence, which means that in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, local governments are responsible for this area. The governments of Northern Ireland and Wales have already put in place short lockdowns to stop the epidemic. In Northern Ireland it is scheduled for four weeks, two of which have already passed, and in Wales for 17 days, which means that there are still nine to come.
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PAP / from London Bartłomiej Niedziński
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