In line with its mission, the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony makes every effort to provide reliable medical content supported by the latest scientific knowledge. The additional flag “Checked Content” indicates that the article has been reviewed by or written directly by a physician. This two-step verification: a medical journalist and a doctor allows us to provide the highest quality content in line with current medical knowledge.
Our commitment in this area has been appreciated, among others, by by the Association of Journalists for Health, which awarded the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony with the honorary title of the Great Educator.
By 2030, lung cancer mortality among women will increase by more than 40%, while breast cancer mortality will decline in many countries, scientists predict in the journal Cancer Research.
- The first countries where lung cancer mortality exceeded that from breast cancer were mainly developed countries
- Globally, the lung cancer mortality rate among women is expected to increase from 11,2 in 2015 to 16,0 in 2030. The highest rates in 2030 are projected in Europe and Oceania, while the lowest mortality rates are in America and Asia
- The differences in lung cancer mortality are related to social changes
As noted by the authors of the study, although significant progress has been made in reducing mortality from breast cancer, mortality from lung cancer among women around the world continues to increase. “If we do not implement measures to reduce smoking-related behavior in this population, the death rate from lung cancer will increase,” said Dr. Jose M. Martínez-Sánchez of Universitat Internacional de Catalunya in Barcelona.
The studies conducted so far, devoted to the prognosis of mortality due to breast and lung cancer, usually concerned women from one country or one continent. Few studies have estimated the mortality trends caused by these two common cancers on a global scale.
Martínez-Sánchez and his colleagues analyzed data on female mortality from breast cancer and lung cancer from the World Health Organization (WHO) database for 2008-2014. To be included in this study, individual countries had to report their data for at least four years (between 2008 and 2014) and have more than one million inhabitants. Fifty-two countries met these criteria: 29 from Europe, 14 from America, seven from Asia and two from Oceania.
Based on the analysis of data from 52 countries, scientists from Barcelona predict that from 2015 to 2030, the global death rate for lung cancer among women will increase by 43 percent. Global breast cancer mortality is projected to decline by 9 percent over the same period, from 16,1 in 2015 to 14,7 in 2030. The highest mortality from lung cancer (but with a downward trend) is predicted in Europe, the smallest (though with an upward trend) – in Asia.
Breast cancer has to do with lifestyle – specialists are observing an increase in mortality in Asia, as it is adapting to the Western way of life. It is associated with obesity and increased alcohol consumption, both of which contribute to breast cancer. On the other hand, in Europe, mortality from breast cancer is declining, which may be related to increased awareness, more active participation in screening and more effective treatment.
Globally, the lung cancer mortality rate among women is expected to increase from 11,2 in 2015 to 16,0 in 2030. The highest rates in 2030 are projected in Europe and Oceania, while the lowest mortality rates are in America and Asia. In Oceania alone, female lung cancer mortality is projected to decline, from 17,8 in 2015 to 17,6 in 2030.
As Dr. Sanchez noted, the differences regarding lung cancer mortality is related to social changes. Smoking in the European and Oceania countries included in the study was socially acceptable years before the addiction became widespread in America and Asia – why also we see higher lung cancer mortality rates in these countries.
Compared to high-income countries, high-income countries have the highest projected death rate based on age in lung and breast cancer in 2030. However, high-income countries are also more likely to reduce mortality from breast cancer. The first countries where lung cancer mortality exceeded that from breast cancer were mainly developed countries.
As the authors point out, a limitation of the study is the assumption that the current trends in mortality from lung cancer and breast cancer will continue over the next two decades. Meanwhile, some habits, such as switching from traditional cigarettes to electronic cigarettes, may change mortality trends from lung cancer – as well as future screening and treatment methods. Moreover, the study did not take into account African countries, incl. due to lack of data.