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Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and originator of the controversial “Swedish strategy” to fight the coronavirus, has come under fire from the media. The reason is the e-mails he wrote in March, revealed by journalists, when the plan to deal with the epidemic was being established. The topic about seniors is widely commented on. In one, an epidemiologist asks “if a higher mortality rate among the elderly would be acceptable if it led to faster herd immunity,” points out the Swedish newspaper Expressen. The case was described, among others, by «The Guardian».
The tactic of fighting COVID-19, created by Anders Tegnell, aroused hot emotions from the very beginning. Sweden, unlike most European countries, has not opted for severe pandemic restrictions – instead of bans, there were recommendations on, inter alia, make people distance themselves and work remotely whenever possible. Sweden has decided not to close cafes, restaurants and commercial facilities. A few top-down restrictions were also introduced – a ban on gathering more than 50 people and a ban on visiting nursing homes.
Most of the schools were left open. Only students aged 16 and over were learning remotely. According to the newspaper Expressen, families, including those belonging to high-risk groups, who did not send their children to school, were fined for this.
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“In many respects, the voluntary measures we introduced in Sweden were as effective as the mandatory restrictions introduced in other countries. So I don’t think it will be the right path for everyone (…) »- Anders Tegnell told UnHerd in July. In his opinion, mandatory restrictions also have negative effects and this should be carefully looked at.
The Swedish epidemiologist has repeatedly emphasized that the goal of the adopted strategy is not to achieve rapid group (herd, population) immunity, but rather to slow down the spread of the coronavirus enough for health services to deal with the situation. As the Guardian points out, Tegnell’s e-mails reached by Swedish journalists indicate that in mid-March, a few days after the WHO announced the pandemic, he discussed the issue of building “population immunity” to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus as a possible goal of the strategy being developed at that time.
What is the so-called herd immunity?
Group immunity is the fact that if enough people acquire immunity (either through a disease or through a vaccine), the virus stops spreading in the population even without extra precautions. For years, vaccine opponents have used this phenomenon – they did not get vaccinated and did not get sick. However, fleeting contact with a person infected with, for example, extremely contagious measles was enough to cause an epidemic in the clusters of unvaccinated people, emphasizes Paweł Wernicki from PAP.
The development of herd immunity depends on many factors (not all are known exactly), including the virus reproduction rate, i.e. the average number of people infected by a single infected person. To talk about epidemic extinction, the R-factor should be less than or equal to 1 – the lower the better. «If one infected infects two more people on average – then the number of those infected grows exponentially. However, the more immunized people in the population, the more difficult it is to spread the disease. The easier the virus spreads, the more people should be immune to it in order to achieve herd immunity »(after PAP).
Experts stress that waiting for herd immunity to develop is not an acceptable solution – it takes too long and involves too many victims.
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What did the published emails of Sweden’s chief epidemiologist reveal?
In a leaked correspondence by Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, the attention of journalists was caught by an e-mail that Tegnell received from a retired doctor. He suggested that one of the ways to fight the epidemic was to voluntarily infect healthy people (previously placed in hotels) – thanks to this, the doctor wrote, they would not need to be vaccinated.
Tegnell sent a message to the President of the Public Health Authority, Johan Carlson and Mika Salminen, who deals with health safety issues in Finland. He also added a comment saying that “one point would be to keep the schools open, which would accelerate the development of herd immunity”.
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Salminen wrote back: »In Finland, we also thought about it. But in the meantime, the children will continue to spread the infection… ». He also noted that if schools were closed, the infection rate among the elderly would drop by 10%. “Maybe 10 percent could be worth it?” – answered the Swedish epidemiologist.
Today, five months later, in a comment to the Swedish newspaper Expressen, Anders Tegnell explained that it was not herd immunity that was why the Public Health Agency decided to keep the schools open. “My comment concerned the possible rather than the expected impact which was part of the assessment of the appropriateness of the measure. Therefore, opening schools in order to achieve population resilience has never mattered »- he noted.
The Swedish daily Aftonbladet reported that Tegnell had removed several e-mails from a series of over 200 sent from January to April. Tegnell replied to the newspaper that the e-mails were probably working material, of no great importance.
The epidemic situation in Sweden
According to experts, the effects of a voluntary lockdown – in terms of the number of infections and deaths caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus – were clearly worse in Sweden than in other countries. In both cases, there were more of them than in Denmark and Norway. In Sweden, the decline in infections and deaths was also slower.
Until August 12, 2020, there were 8,2 thous. confirmed coronavirus infections per million inhabitants, while in Norway – 1, in Denmark – 780, and Great Britain – 2. In the United States, however, the rate was higher and amounted to 560 infections per 4 million inhabitants.
In the same period, Sweden registered 57 deaths per 100. population, while in Denmark – 11, and in Norway – 5. In the USA it was 50 deaths per 100 thousand. inhabitants, and in Great Britain – 70.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Adam Sheridan from the University of Copenhagen points out that the voluntary lockdown in Sweden was less adhered to by young people aged 18-29, which translated to a lesser extent on the expenditure of the population and the economy, but could have had an impact on the number of infections and deaths.
Swedish national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell explains that death rates in Sweden were significantly influenced by the failure to protect nursing home residents. Until mid-May 2020, as many as half of the deaths related to the pandemic fell to them.
As of August 17, there have been 85 cases of infection in Sweden. 045 people died due to COVID-19.
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