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Some of the seasonal flu viruses we catch each winter may come directly from the strain that caused the “Spanish pandemic” in 1918, one of the worst pandemics in human history. Such a discovery was made by scientists from the Robert Koch Institute. They described them in the pages of Nature Communications.
- The Spanish flu epidemic was one of the greatest pandemics in human history
- A study from Germany found that the 1918 flu pandemic passed many waves, as did the COVID-19 pandemic
- Unlike COVID-19, no evidence has been found that the 1918 new variants of the influenza virus are growing, dominating and replacing each other with each wave
- Scientists suggest that the 1918 flu virus has evolved to “perfect” its ability to infect humans
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
Research on the “Spanish” virus and an important discovery
Influenza caused by the H1N1 virus – colloquially known as “Spanish” – plagued mankind in 1918-1920. This is one of the first epidemics to spread worldwide within a few months. «A conservative estimate is 500 million infected and 30-50 million fatalities. Some researchers, however, claim that up to a billion people could fall ill, or two-thirds of the then inhabitants of our planet, and die – 100 million » – says Łukasz Mieszkowski from the Institute of History of the Polish Academy of Sciences (more in the article: Spanish pandemic through the eye of a historian).
Now it turns out that the seasonal H1N1 influenza A epidemics observed each year are caused by viruses that are the direct heirs of those behind the catastrophic influenza pandemic of 1918. The link has been discovered by scientists at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Germany. The researchers analyzed 13 lung tissue samples from German residents from 1900 to 1931 (victims of “Spanish”). Scientists managed to obtain two partial and one complete genome of the influenza A H1N1 virus. All from 1918.
The rest of the article is available under the video.
Working with the genetic material of the virus from more than 100 years ago has been a challenge for scientists. However, they did manage to carefully analyze the pathogen. This gave them insight into how it happened that it caused havoc around the world and potentially still lurks to this day.
The 1918 flu pandemic has experienced many waves like the COVID-19 pandemic
“The 1918 pandemic affected more than half of humanity and killed 50 to 100 million people, but when we started this work, sequences of only 18 specimens were available, and there were only two complete genomes of the virus, mostly from the US,” says the author of the study from The Robert Koch Institute, Sébastien Calvignac-Spencer.
An analysis by German scientists clearly suggested that the 1918 influenza virus was spreading both locally and on continents. Most importantly, compared to other specimens, the genomes studied in Germany are from earlier phases of the pandemic. This shows that the 1918 flu pandemic has experienced many waves, as has the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike COVID-19, no evidence has been found that the 1918 variants of the influenza virus grow, dominate, and replace with each successive wave. However, it appears that the 1918 influenza virus has evolved over time, “perfecting” its ability to infect humans.
Using molecular clock modeling (a method of measuring the time between individual evolutionary events), scientists discovered that all genomic segments of the seasonal H1N1 flu could be derived directly from the original 1918 pandemic strain.
How has the flu virus changed?
While there are no genetic sequences to show what happened to the H1N1 virus in the 20s, it is known that the virus became less virulent in the early 30s, successfully switching from a pandemic virus to a seasonal virus. According to German scientists, H1N1 did this without rebuilding or replacing genomic segments. It can therefore be concluded that the seasonal exacerbations of the virus are directly related to the pandemic strain.
The researchers stress that any comparisons between the COVID-19 pandemic and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic should be made with caution. These are very different viruses, and the conditions for the spread of pathogens are also different.
Most scientists, however, believe that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus will become a seasonal endemic virus, perhaps no more severe than the common cold.
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