The restrictions depend on this number. We have the latest data on hospitalizations

The number of COVID-19 cases in Poland is increasing, as is the number of hospitalizations. Almost 900 people were in hospitals on Friday. For the Ministry of Health, the number that may force the decision to return the restrictions is five thousand people in hospitals. How real is it?

1. On July 18, the Ministry of Health informed about 319 cases of COVID-19 in Poland. Last week, this number has already exceeded 2.
2. There were 894 patients in hospitals on Friday. The bars showing the number of hospitalizations have been increasing for several weeks
3. The limit of 5, which Adam Niedzielski is talking about, is probable, but we are unlikely to be looking at the numbers that took place in the previous waves
4. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

How many people are currently in hospitals?

The next wave of coronavirus has taken over Europe and the world. The bars showing the daily numbers of infections are rising in the United States, India, Australia and many countries of our continent. Also in Poland. On Saturday, the Ministry of Health informed about 2. 131 cases of COVID-19. Previously, this was the number of them on April 2.

The number of patients requiring hospitalization is also growing. Since the second half of June, we have more and more patients in hospitals due to the coronavirus. From the beginning of April, the health ministry provides this data on a weekly basis, on Wednesdays. On July 13, 694 people were hospitalized.

We asked MZ for the latest data. From the e-mail we received on Monday, we learned that «data as of July 15, 2022 are as follows: beds occupied by COVID-19 – 894 patients, including 24 ventilator beds«.

Thus, 200 patients arrived in hospitals within two days.

What is MZ planning?

The Ministry of Health reiterates that the number of infected people is not the determinant of the scale of the pandemic, but the number of sick people.

– For us, infections are not that important compared to the more important statistics, i.e. the number of hospitalized people. This is the most important data in the epidemic, it says about the burden on the health care system – he said recently in the program “Onet Rano.” spokesman for MZ Wojciech Andrusiewicz.

When will this burden become serious?

– If it is below 5 hospitalization on a national scale, no restrictive steps will be taken, unless the situation requires a faster response – emphasized the head of the ministry, Adam Niedzielski.

What are the preparations of the Ministry of Health for this critical moment? In the earlier waves of the pandemic, the ministry informed on an ongoing basis about the number of beds prepared for COVID-19 patients. So we asked the ministry about the condition of the bed base and possible other actions in this direction.

“The rising number of infections is not expected to pose a risk to the health of the healthcare system. Currently, we are not working on changing the regulations, but we are monitoring the situation on an ongoing basis.

It is still difficult to predict what the autumn wave of a pandemic might look like. European data indicate that it may appear in early fall, but whether it will actually be so depends on many factors. Together with the cooperating centers of experts, we prepare and follow national and international analyzes. We are preparing for various scenarios, but no regulatory changes have been made at the moment»- this is the answer we received from the MZ Communication Office.

So there are no details yet.

How did it look like before?

Previously 5 hospitalizations in Poland were recorded at the end of March this year. On March 29, the Ministry of Health informed about 5 340 patients with COVID-19 in hospitals, a day later it was 4. 963. From the beginning of April, the number of hospitalizations fell sharply, and on April 26 it was “only” 1321.

At that time, the bars showing infections remained at the level of 5-6 thousand, but taking into account that the number of people in hospitals is a derivative of the number of cases from several days ago, it is necessary to take into account several thousand. infections that took place in mid-March.

The number of hospitalizations at the level of at least 5 it lasted for a very long time, for over five months. For the second time (the first time it took place in autumn 2020), it was exceeded on October 25, 2020. The transition from the level we see now (894 hospitalizations) to the upper limit took almost six weeks – on September 16, 881 people stayed in hospitals.

Co dalej?

Are there any predictions about the coming weeks based on these numbers? In mid-September last year, the number of cases had not yet exceeded one thousand. On September 16, the Ministry of Health informed about 722 cases. Currently, this number exceeds 2. So it is clear that currently the coronavirus is less likely to cause a severe course of the disease, requiring hospitalization.

The rest is really unknown. Back then, the incidence only started to rise after the summer holidays (it was largely due to the return of children to school and adults to work), now it is taking place at the peak of the holiday season. A year ago, the Delta variant was crazy, now we are dealing with another sub-variant of the Omikron – BA. 4, BA.5 and possibly BA as well. 2.75 (possibly more transmissive, but less likely to cause serious mileage).

So we are sure to have several weeks of increasing hospital admissions ahead of us. The pace may be slower than a year ago (we are more dispersed) and it will probably reach the limit of 5 mentioned by the health minister. However, it does not have to come to the pessimistic scenario considered by the Ministry of Health (10), and especially to the situation seen during the summits of the third (over 30 people in hospitals) or the fourth (over 20) wave.

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