Contents
In line with its mission, the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony makes every effort to provide reliable medical content supported by the latest scientific knowledge. The additional flag “Checked Content” indicates that the article has been reviewed by or written directly by a physician. This two-step verification: a medical journalist and a doctor allows us to provide the highest quality content in line with current medical knowledge.
Our commitment in this area has been appreciated, among others, by by the Association of Journalists for Health, which awarded the Editorial Board of MedTvoiLokony with the honorary title of the Great Educator.
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak, experts have been keeping a close eye on the R-index, the virus’s reproduction rate. Why? It is a determinant of whether the epidemic is dying out or getting worse. As MedTvoiLokony found out, the current R coefficient in Poland is 1,05.
- Within a month, the R index in Poland decreased – but it is still above 1, which means that the epidemic is developing
- The worst situation is currently in the province. Lubuskie Voivodeship, where the coefficient is 1,64
- In eight voivodships, the R0 indicator has increased over the last month
What is the R indicator?
The virus reproduction rate (R0) tells you where the epidemic is at. In simple terms, it can be said that the indicator shows what is contagious – how many people can be infected by one patient with COVID-19 infection.
If the index is more than 1, it means that one patient infects more than one person, and thus the epidemic is still developing.
When the R-factor is below 1, it is a sign that the epidemic is dying out and fewer and fewer people are getting infected from each other.
The reproduction rate of the virus is constantly changing as it is influenced by many factors. The variables were defined by prof. Adam Kucharski. The four most important factors that influence the R score are:
- Time (durration) – the longer a person is sick, the more opportunities they have to infect others;
- Opportunity to infect others (opportunities) – a variable related to the behavior of the sick person – what he / she does during the illness, does it enter into social interactions, how often it creates the possibility of infecting other people;
- Transmission probability – factors that increase it – e.g. sneezing, coughing (if the virus is spread by airborne droplets);
- The susceptibility of the other person – for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the risk factors are older age and comorbidities.
Read more on the reproductive rate of the virus
Let us recall that at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak, WHO estimated the R index at 3-4 (on a global scale).
At the end of June, the Ministry of Health announced that the R index in Poland was 1,11, which meant that one infected could infect more than one person.
As MedTvoiLokony found out, the current R index is 1,05 (as of 18.07/XNUMX – this is the latest data we have received from the Ministry of Health).
Within a month, the rate has decreased, but is still more than 1 – so it cannot be said that the epidemic in Poland is dying out.
It is worth paying attention to the values of the R index in individual voivodeships.
According to the data of the Ministry of Health, at present, the worst situation is in the Lubuskie voivodship, where the R index is 1,64.
The second place is małopolskie – the indicator is 1,54, and in the third – voivodeship Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship (1,34).
In turn, the best epidemiological situation is now in the following voivodships: Podlaskie, Warmińsko-Mazurskie, Wielkopolskie, Opolskie and Śląskie. In these regions of Poland, the reproduction rate of the virus fell below 1.
The situation has changed a lot over the past month. Four weeks ago, the highest rate was in the province. Łódzkie – it was over 2. High values were also recorded in the Śląskie and Dolnośląskie voivodships.
Editors recommend: More information about the R index in Poland in June
Compared to the June data, the R0 coefficient increased in eight voivodships. It is influenced by the so-called local outbreaks. In recent weeks, the Sanepid informed, among others about infections in a nursing home in the province Lesser Poland and new cases detected at weddings, funerals or communion receptions in many places in Poland.
Below is a graphic showing the R indicator in June:
Let us recall that on Saturday (July 25) 584 new infections were recorded in Poland – the highest number since June 8. In an interview with Onet, prof. Andrzej Horban, the national consultant for infectious diseases, said that this may be due to the fact that Poles no longer comply with the applicable rules, e.g. regarding wearing masks or maintaining social distance. The expert pointed out that the key moment will be the end of the summer holidays: – The children will go to school and may become infected. So far we have an uptrend, but it’s hard to say what will happen next. It all depends on whether the rules are followed. If so, everything should stabilize at the same level as now – said prof. Horban.
This may interest you:
- The first Polish drug for COVID-19 will be in August?
- Three things that can stop an epidemic, even without a vaccine or medication
- Is the virus weaker in summer? Here’s what the scientists say
The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website.