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The percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in the total number of tests can give us a general idea of how an epidemic is developing in a given country. What can we learn from this indicator and what else is worth paying attention to?
- WHO recommends: Test, test, test. Knowing the ratio of positive COVID-19 tests to the total number of tests allows you to know where an epidemic is developing in a given country
- In May, WHO called for lowering COVID-19 positive tests to less than 5% before lifting the blockages. (in a two-week period)
- For more up-to-date information on the coronavirus, please visit the TvoiLokony home page
How are the countries of the European Union testing?
From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO’s message has been clear: Test, test, test. The more people tested, the better the knowledge about the development of the epidemic in a given country and the better the possibilities to counteract the further spread of the virus. In Poland, we have been performing relatively few COVID-19 tests since the beginning of the epidemic. On September 28, the Ministry of Health announced that 3 samples and 281 people have been tested in Poland so far (one person could be tested more than once, because until September, to leave the isolation, two, obtained one after the other, had to be presented, negative results for COVID-311).
According to ourworldingdata.org website, which collects statistical data on, inter alia, COVID-19, in Poland, every day COVID-19 tests are performed on 0,5 per 1000 inhabitants (moving average over seven days). This gives us the penultimate result in the European Union. Only the Bulgarians test a bit worse than we do.
Denmark has the highest percentage of daily COVID-19 tests – 8,46 per 1000 inhabitants. Belgium is also on the podium, but with a much worse result – 3,15 / 1000 inhabitants, and Ireland – 2,62 / 1000 inhabitants. France, Spain and Finland are behind the podium, testing an average of 2,33 / 1000 inhabitants a day.
Does Denmark, which is testing the most on average at the moment, have the most infections? This is where the COVID-19 positive test rate in the total number of tests comes in handy.
Check: Scientist from the University of Sydney explains how to interpret the coronavirus statistics. His advice will help to screen out fake news
What is the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in EU countries?
Answering the question in the previous paragraph: Denmark, although testing extensively, has a relatively small percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in the total number of tests. In the ranking of European Union countries, it ranks fourth from the end, with a result of 1,2 percent.
In Bulgaria, which is the lowest in the ranking, i.e. it performs the fewest daily COVID-19 tests per 1000 inhabitants, the percentage of positive tests is 3,2%. This means that despite the relatively small number of tests, many new infections are still detected.
For Poland, the rate of positive COVID-19 tests is 4,4%. (last seven days moving average). Only September 28, the Ministry of Health reported 1306 new infections. During the day, over 13,4 thousand. tests. And although we know that the test result information does not have to appear on the same day the sample was taken, we can assume that the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in the total number of tests on Sunday was 9,74%. And this is disturbing news.
The World Health Organization recommended in May that countries wishing to ease restrictions on COVID-19 transmission ensure that the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in the total number of tests is below 5%. for at least two weeks. While on a weekly basis (see chart) we manage to be below the 5%, yesterday’s daily result is a bit worrying.
See:
- The European Commission calls on EU countries to enforce the principles of distance and hygiene in protection against COVID-19
- The number of coronavirus infections in Europe continues to grow. What went wrong?
- Are we dealing with a second wave of COVID-19 in Europe?
But it is not only Poland that has cause for concern. Luxembourg, Spain and the Czech Republic also have a high percentage of positive COVID-19 tests. Spain is the only one in the European Union to exceed half a million SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections, and in recent weeks has even improved the result – to 735%. tests from the total number of tests returns positive. Similarly, the Czech Republic did an excellent job of flattening the infection curve during the epidemic peaks in March and April. Now, despite the fact that Czechs perform 198 tests / 10,7 inhabitants every day, the percentage of positive tests is 1,76%.
Over 5% there are also Hungary (7,8%), France (6,8%), Romania (6,6%), the Netherlands (6%), Slovakia (5,2%).
Below is also a chart taking into account only Poland and our neighbors. The highest percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in relation to the total tests is observed in Ukraine – 12,8 percent. In Belarus (2%), Lithuania (1,5%), Germany (1,1%) and Latvia (0,6%) the rates are lower than in Poland.
- The rate of positive COVID-19 tests in Poland is increasing [EXPLAINED]
What does the COVID-19 test positive rate tell us?
The COVID-19 test percentage can tell us a lot about how the ongoing epidemic is developing. It allows you to answer the following questions: What is the current level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community and are we doing enough tests?
The percentage of positive results will be high if the number of positive tests is very large or if too few tests are performed in total. A higher percentage of positive tests when performing a large number of tests indicates that the transmission of the coronavirus is still high and there are likely to be many people in the community who are infected but have not yet been detected.
If a high percentage of positive COVID-19 tests persists with a relatively small number of total tests (as is the case in Poland, Bulgaria or Hungary), it indicates that more tests are probably needed to find out what the actual transmission of the virus looks like. in society. It also suggests that this is not a good time to ease restrictions to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
The low percentage of positive COVID-19 tests in the total number of tests means that the transmission level of the coronavirus is relatively low.
There are two ways: reducing the transmission of the virus and increasing the number of people tested. Fortunately, these two things often go hand in hand. If we test more people and respond appropriately to positive cases (through isolation), the amount of transmissions will decrease over time. If there are no tools to increase testing, stricter preventive measures can help: wearing masks, especially indoors, keeping physical distance, and avoiding crowds.
There are several aspects to consider when comparing this indicator: each country has its own testing policy, some countries test a large number of people whenever it is suspected that they may have come into contact with an infected person, and they also screen for screening, while others focus on symptomatic patients. or they just don’t have the right tools to test more.
The editorial board recommends:
- Minister Waldemar Kraska on the increase in infections: they result from our activity
- It was a record week, but the peak is still ahead of us
- Dr. Marek Posobkiewicz: at least several hundred thousand are infected