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«We are winning with the epidemic! The number of infections is decreasing! » – on November 30, Mateusz Morawiecki wrote in social media. The value of the R index, which, according to the Ministry of Health data, fell below 1, may also indicate that the coronavirus is on the retreat. Is it really? «This is false joy. We are in a very dangerous moment »- says Dr. Aneta Afelt, member of the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
- Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on November 30: «The data does not lie. Please see the chart. We are winning with the epidemic! The number of infections is decreasing! »
- According to the data of the Ministry of Health, the value of the R index as of November 21 was 0,92, which may indicate that fewer and fewer people become infected from each other
- Dr. Aneta Afelt: let’s be aware that we still have too little knowledge about the coronavirus to be able to say optimistically: we are on the right track
- You can find more up-to-date information on the TvoiLokony home page
«The data doesn’t lie. Please see the chart. We are winning with the epidemic! The number of infections is decreasing! » – On November 30, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote in social media. «Until we get the vaccine, let’s use what just works. Distance, disinfection and masks »- he reminded.
Another seemingly optimistic news is the latest data on the virus reproduction rate (RO), the value of which fell below 1 (on November 21, the R value for the entire country was only 0,92 – reported concrete24.tvn24.pl, citing the data of the Ministry of Health).
Recall that the R indicator, also known as the virus reproduction rate (RO), tells us at what stage the epidemic is. In simple terms, it shows what is contagious – that is, how many people can be infected by one patient infected with SARS-CoV-2 and found to be infected with COVID-19.
If the R index is greater than 1, it means that one patient infects more than one person. In this case, it can be said that the epidemic is still developing. If the RO value is less than 1, we can believe that the epidemic is dying out and fewer and fewer people become infected from each other.
According to the data of the Ministry of Health of November 25, the reproduction rate of the virus as of November 21 for the entire country was 0,92. So this means that one sick person infects less than one healthy person. “If (the R index – editorial note) is 0,92, it says that currently 100 sick people will infect 92 more people, and this means that the epidemic is theoretically in retreat, because less and less will be infected” – Rafał Halik from the National Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene (NIZP-PZH), explained for the w Concrete24.tvn24.pl.
- Coverage of the COVID-19 coronavirus [MAP]
Looking at the previous RO statistics, it does seem that we have reasons to be optimistic. As of November 3, the virus reproduction rate was 1,25. About a month earlier, the RO value was as high as 1,36 (as of October 1).
Taking into account the previous information on the reproduction rate of the virus (the health ministry provides it irregularly), they were:
- 1,05 – data from the ministry as of July 18
- 1,11 – data from the ministry as of June 22
- 0,99 – ministry data as of May 13
- 1,11 – data of the ministry as of April 28,
- 2,6 – ministry information from March 25
As you can see, the RO value is currently the lowest among all those reported since the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic in Poland.
- Read more on the reproductive rate of the virus
It is worth bearing in mind that the reproductive rate of the virus is constantly fluctuating as it is influenced by many factors. The four most important factors that affect the R index were defined by prof. Adam Kucharski. These are:
- Durration – the longer a person is sick, the more opportunities they have to infect others
- Opportunity to infect others (opportunities) – a variable related to the behavior of the sick person – what he or she does during illness, whether it has social interactions, how often it creates the possibility of infecting other people;
- Transmission probability – factors that increase it – eg sneezing, coughing (if the virus is transmitted by airborne droplets);
- Susceptibility of the other person – in the case of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the risk factors are older age and comorbidities.
According to data from the Ministry of Health, as of November 21, the reproductive rate of the virus was one or more in only four provinces.
- Warmia and Mazury – 1,14
- West Pomeranian Voivodeship – 1,11
- Lubuskie Voivodeship – 1,08
- Opole – 1
In the remaining 12 voivodships, the R index was as follows:
- Lower Silesia – 0,99
- Pomeranian Voivodeship – 0,99
- Podlasie – 0,98
- Świętokrzyskie – 0,95
- Greater Poland – 0,94
- Łódź Voivodeship – 0,94
- Lublin – 0,92
- Lesser Poland – 0,9
- Mazowieckie – 0,87
- Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship – 0,82
- Silesian – 0,81
- Podkarpackie – 0,8
Following the above-mentioned values of the virus reproduction ratio, it can therefore be assumed that in most voivodships the epidemic is dying out and is still developing in only four.
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Is the current R really proof that we have mastered the coronavirus and are winning in the epidemic? We asked Dr. Aneta Afelt from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, member of the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences for her opinion. The specialist says directly: – Unfortunately, it is not good.
R values - they should be approached very carefully
Dr. Aneta Afelt emphasizes that the presented values of the R-factor should be approached very carefully. There are several reasons. – First of all, from day to day we observe a very different number of tests given by the Ministry of Health – the specialist notes.
Another issue is testing only those who are clearly symptomatic. – So we are actually examining patients for whom the referring physician for a genetic or antigen test is almost certain that they are infected. So the whole group of people who pass the infection asymptomatically, with few symptoms or who decide not to seek medical help because they believe that their health does not require urgent medical intervention – explains Dr. Afelt. – Remember, all these people can infect. Meanwhile, we do not know anything certain about their number – he reminds.
The third issue that our expert draws attention to is the fact that the value of the reproductive rate is calculated only on the basis of the diagnosis made on the basis of the test results reported to the system – so it absolutely does not show the real situation – says Dr. Aneta Afelt. – It is also worth remembering that the so-called antibody tests only work well in people who have a very high viral load (the amount of virus in a person’s blood). The data obtained on their basis also does not show the real number of infected.
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– In short, we have too many areas of uncertainty about the state of the epidemic to report such optimistic results. Especially if the number of tests is falling, and the percentage of positive tests is still very high – sums up a member of the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Can you estimate the real epidemic situation in Poland?
We asked this question to Dr. Aneta Afelt. “I would be very careful about any estimates that we could say are close to reality,” he says, emphasizing, “We are at a very dangerous time.”
– On the one hand, after introducing a number of restrictions, it is indeed to be expected that the number of actual infections will decline. We also see that people are simply wearing face masks and this is very beneficial for reducing the number of infections. These are the factors that can lower the number of cases. However, the current situation, which, as I have already mentioned, results from calculations based only on the number of tests performed, should not be treated as a super-optimistic factor. Absolutely not.
There is one more issue that the specialist points out. It is about periodically suppressing the number of infections. – If in a given community, e.g. in an agglomeration or other large population center, approx. 20% population will come into contact with the virus in a short time, the number of infections is temporarily suppressed – says Aneta Afelt. – Each community is characterized by a certain structure of contacts, if a virus appears here – many people are infected in a fairly short time. After reaching the maximum level of infection in a given cross-linked, i.e. well-communicated, contact group, there is a periodic reduction in the dynamics of infections. The virus is looking for access to a new network of contacts – he explains to us.
– So we have successively: growth, reaching the maximum, decreasing infections, searching for new contacts and, after some time, increasing infections in this new group. Unfortunately, this is a kind of a sine wave in the dynamics of the number of infected people on a regional or national scale, you should be aware of this!
— In my opinion, the results provided by MZ are too optimistic. So is declaring that we are winning the epidemic. This is a false joy that has no basis in scientific facts. It is really not good to go back to the attitude presented in the summer, when we heard from politicians that the situation was under control and the virus was in retreat. This is not in line with scientific facts, he explains.
In her opinion, common sense is the way to stop the spread of the coronavirus. – Epidemics do not work on the “is-there” principle. So the most important thing is to continue to be rigorous, even if our loved ones have contracted COVID-19. There is more and more evidence that resistance to SARS-CoV-2 is short-term.
Finally, our expert reminds us once again: – Let’s be aware that we still have too little knowledge about the coronavirus to be able to say optimistically: we are on the right track. In fact, we will be on the way to controlling the pathogen, if we follow the sanitary regime, limit contacts – we will act responsibly while waiting for effective therapy and vaccinations.
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