In December, over 300 jobs were recorded in Poland. SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections. This is almost half as much as the month before. The latest data from the Ministry of Health show that the R index for Poland is 0,881. What does it mean?
- The R coefficient for Poland and for individual voivodships is currently below 1
- The highest R indicator has the Zachodniopomorskie voivodship, the lowest is in the Małopolskie voivodship
- You can find more up-to-date information on the TvoiLokony home page
R indicator for Poland
The R indicator, the virus reproduction rate (R0) tells us at what stage the epidemic is. Simply put, the R indicator determines how many healthy people can become infected by one infected person. Initially, the R virus was as high as 2,5-3, which meant that one patient tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infects 2 to 3 people, and they infect another 2 to 3 people.
If the R value is higher than 1, it means that the epidemic is still developing, if it is less than 1 it means that the epidemic is dying out as fewer and fewer people get infected from each other. What is the situation with the R-factor in Poland?
According to the data of the Ministry of Health, the R coefficient in Poland (as of December 25.12) is now 0,881, which means that 100 sick people will infect another 88 people.
The R factor is not a constant value – it depends on many factors. The four most important of them are:
- Durration – the longer a person is sick, the more opportunities they have to infect others
- Opportunity to infect others (opportunities) – a variable related to the behavior of the sick person – what he or she does during illness, whether it has social interactions, how often it creates the possibility of infecting other people;
- Transmission probability – factors that increase it – eg sneezing, coughing (if the virus is transmitted by airborne droplets);
- Susceptibility of the other person – in the case of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the risk factors are older age and comorbidities.
R indicator for voivodships
According to the Ministry of Health, in none of the voivodships the R coefficient exceeds 1. A month ago such a situation took place in four voivodships: Warmińsko-Mazurskie, Zachodniopomorskie, Lubuskie and Opolskie.
What is the R index for individual voivodeships now?
- Lower Silesia 0,82
- Kuyavian-Pomeranian 0,911
- Lublin Voivodeship 0,856
- Lubuskie 0,86
- Łódź Voivodeship 0,904
- Lesser Poland 0,799
- Mazowieckie 0,889
- Opolskie 0,841
- Podkarpackie 0,824
- Podlaskie Voivodeship 0,859
- Pomeranian 0,926
- Silesian 0,849
- Świętokrzyskie 0,846
- Warmia and Mazury 0,872
- Greater Poland 0,897
- West Pomeranian 0,932
It is worth remembering that the R factor depends on many variables and our knowledge about the course of the epidemic should not be based only on this one factor. As indicated in an interview with Medonet, Dr. Aneta Afelt from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling and a member of the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences, the presented values of the R coefficient should be approached with caution.
The expert points out, inter alia, on the number of tests performed, the way of testing (i.e. testing symptomatic people), as well as the fact that the value of the reproductive rate is calculated only on the basis of the diagnosis made on the basis of the test results reported to the system. We would like to remind you that currently in Poland, an order to perform a COVID-19 test is only given to people who have clear symptoms of infection. Contact persons or the household of the infected person are no longer compulsorily tested. As a result, we do not know the exact number of infected people or even the scale of the epidemic in Poland.
Commercial tests are also another problem. Laboratories are required to report positive test results to health care facilities. However, they do not have to report how many tests were done, how many tests came out negative or pending. Therefore, the testing system in Poland does not allow to realistically assess how many people suffer from COVID-19.
The editorial board recommends:
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- Coronavirus in Poland – statistics for voivodeships [CURRENT DATA]
- Government spokesman: we are concerned about the third wave of the epidemic. Expert: real 40 thousand infections daily
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