Contents
– Good news is finally reaching us, we have gained a slight advantage in the fight against the virus – argued Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki last week. Do we really have reasons to be optimistic about the pandemic?
- On Saturday, November 14, over 25 cases of coronavirus infection were recorded in Poland – over 1500 more than the day before. 548 people have died – a record for the number of deaths since the start of the pandemic
- Meanwhile, Prime Minister Morawiecki announces “good news”. But does he have reasons for this?
- – I would focus on how much our health service is able to bear. To which point will doctors, nurses and paramedics be able to help all seriously ill patients – comments Prof. Fry from the Medical Council appointed by the head of government
- The key to predictions is how quickly the number of people requiring hospitalization will be arriving. Will the rate of severe cases remain at the current level or will it increase?
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“If we manage to keep the number of infections at a similar level in the following days, it will mean that we have won the first battle with the virus. But there is still a long war ahead of us. But we will win her! – Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki emphasized during the Thursday press conference.
And he added: “It is thanks to our responsible attitude, thanks to the consistent implementation of the DDM principle – distance, disinfection, mask – that we gained a slight advantage in the fight against the virus. Now we cannot waste it. (…) The coronavirus took away the possibility of a normal life. That’s why we’re looking for breakthrough signals so much. Finally, the good news is starting to reach us – the first signs of stabilization prove that the recent restrictions are paying off and that discipline makes sense. “
Interestingly, a few hours earlier, the Ministry of Health announced that on Friday, November 13, over 24 cases of coronavirus infection were recorded in Poland. This is over 1300 more than the day before. In addition, as many as 419 people died on Friday (275 on Thursday) – this is one of the highest death rates since the beginning of the pandemic in Poland.
Where does this optimism come from?
The optimism of Mateusz Morawiecki may be a bit surprising, because not so long ago – with very similar data on people infected with coronavirus and lower mortality – the head of government announced that “we will have to introduce national quarantine rules, very basic travel bans ».
And several dozen hours later, the same Mateusz Morawiecki argued that “We have gained a slight advantage in the fight against the virus,” he spoke of “good news” and “stabilization signals.”
Is the first signs of improvement really visible in Poland and can one speak of calming the epidemic situation in Poland? Can you really see the light in the tunnel when the number of infected people still exceeds 24 a day and up to 500 people die?
- 10 COVID-19 victims in Poland. The oldest was 107 years old. The youngest – 4 months
The state of the health service matters
– The very data on the number of people diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection that we get to know every day is a derivative of the number of tests performed and the testing strategy adopted in Poland – explains Prof. Krzysztof Pyrć from the Jagiellonian University, specialist in the field of microbiology and virology, expert in the recently appointed Medical Council appointed by the Prime Minister. – Most patients, however, do not need specialist help, but only time to recover. I would focus more on how much our health service is able to bear. To what point will doctors, nurses and paramedics be able to help all seriously ill patients – he analyzes.
The Medical Council meets regularly
The expert adds that the key factor in these predictions is how quickly the number of people requiring hospitalization will be arriving. “So will the rate of severe cases remain at the current level or increase in the coming weeks and months,” he adds.
The Medical Council, made up of 16 outstanding doctors of various specialties, is to advise Prime Minister Morawiecki in making decisions to make the fight against the coronavirus epidemic effective. Does the prime minister take into account the suggestions and instructions of doctors?
Pyrć: – We have been invited to cooperate recently, so it is a novelty. Time will tell if the suggestions coming from our environment will be taken into account by the rulers. It’s too early to talk about it. I can say that we meet quite regularly and a lot of very smart people have been invited to the board.
- Who advises the prime minister on the epidemic? Here are the experts of the Medical Council
The pandemic will last for years?
“We hope that the pandemic will end within two years,” said World Health Organization experts at the beginning of the pandemic.
And they compared: the great plague in London in the 1918th century lasted a year, the Spanish woman in 1957 – two years. The same was the 1968 Asian flu. The fight against the Hong Kong flu began in XNUMX and ended two years later.
So historically, respiratory disease epidemics lasted about two years. How long will the pandemic that the entire world is facing now last?
– We don’t know. Hopefully it will actually be the last season when things are going to be so bad. We should remember, however, that winter is ahead of us, so a lot can still happen – emphasizes prof. Throw.
Still on an ascending curve
The scientist adds that the development of the epidemic will also be influenced by the fact that convalescents may fall ill again. – Although there are relatively few people in Poland who contracted COVID-19 in the spring – he reserves. – So it can be said that we are still on the rising curve, which can only be mitigated by our action. It should also be remembered that even if we pass the next infection gently, we will still be a threat to other people.
Read also:
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