The premiere of Morawiecki fortune-telling from… coffee grounds? [COMMENT]

“It is now a disease, one could say, like others, we are only waiting for a vaccine” – said Prime Minister Morawiecki in Wysokie Mazowieckie on Thursday, stating at the same time that the situation around the coronavirus “is stabilizing in the most positive sense”. We would like it very much, but the Prime Minister’s words are more wishful thinking than a statement based on facts.

1. Poland is at the end of Europe in terms of the number of coronavirus tests per million inhabitants
2. Prime Minister Morawiecki talks about the decrease in the number of deaths due to the coronavirus, while the data do not indicate this at all
3. Sentence by sentence, we show why the prime minister’s statement about the situation surrounding the coronavirus is more a wish than a fact

– It is stabilizing in the most positive sense, there are fewer and fewer cases in the trend, and even fewer deaths – this makes me especially happy. It is already a disease, you can say like others, we are only waiting for a vaccine. I think that a few months and someone in the world will invent it, because a lot of money has been spent on its development – said Morawiecki during a speech in Wysokie Mazowieckie in the Podlaskie voivodeship.

And it would be great news if… it was data-driven. However, it seems that the Prime Minister probably did not read the latest reports on the coronavirus in Poland and in the world, and his speech was more of a wish than a reality.

“It stabilizes in the most positive sense”

Looking at the number of new cases from the beginning of July – 382, ​​372 and 259 respectively in the following days – it can be concluded that their number is well above the average for Poland (the average calculated from the first case of coronavirus in Poland is 292 cases per day). Meaning that Poland on Thursday was the 8th European country (and the 5th in the European Union) with the highest daily increase in new cases of coronavirus.

At the same time, the number of tests per million inhabitants that we perform in Poland places us at a far 32nd place in Europe (including dependent territories). This means that the number of infections is greatly underestimated, which has already been mentioned by the Ministry of Health.

See also: COVID-19 Coronavirus Coverage [MAP – Daily Update]

«Even fewer deaths»

On Thursday, after the Prime Minister’s words were spoken, the Ministry of Health announced the death of another 15 patients from COVID-19, a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

It puts us in 5th place in Europe (including dependent territories) with the largest daily increase in deaths. Also, when we look at the average daily deaths, which for Poland is 12 (counting from the first case of coronavirus in our country), the data from the beginning of July are by no means lower.

See also: Is the Ministry of Health cheating on the number of tests performed?

“It is already a disease, you could say like the others”

COVID-19 is undeniably a disease. But is it really like the others?

When we look at the daily statistics of deaths in the world due to COVID-19 – an average of 3,47 thousand. as of February 3 – they rank the disease in the 11th place (!) among those with the highest number of deaths a day (i.e. cancer, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and dementia).

It is true that we are treating COVID-19 more and more effectively. However, we still do not have a cure that deals with the disease sufficiently. Many substances are tested and some have been found to be helpful in fighting the infection caused by the coronavirus, but still not enough to feel safe.

«We’re just waiting for a vaccine. I think that a few months and someone in the world will invent it »

Prime Minister, we would very much like that to happen. We certainly agree that “a lot of money went into its development”, and when it comes to working on a vaccine, a lot of financial support is extremely important. However, neither scientists nor the head of the WHO World Health Organization can determine when the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus vaccine will be developed and whether it will be created at all.

Back in June, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that “it is difficult to say with certainty that we will have an effective vaccine at all”. He also said that while he believed that one would be developed (although “so far no vaccine for any coronavirus” has been developed), he estimates that it should be developed within a year.

Reality and the prime minister’s vision

Looking at the above facts, it turns out that the Prime Minister’s speech on the coronavirus, in which he strongly argued that the situation was “stable” and “positive”, is more like reading tea leaves than data-based analysis.

However, this does not mean that we should panic. As emphasized by medical authorities, monitoring the sanitary regimeThus, the use of masks, social distancing, frequent hand washing – are effective protection against infection. With this in mind, we can safely go for a walk, go shopping, see the doctor or go to the elections.

At the same time, hundreds of scientists and doctors have been working for months to find an effective medicine and to develop a vaccine. But we will have to wait for both, so we absolutely must not forget about the precautionary measures.

Unfortunately, the statement of Prime Minister Morawiecki that COVID-19 is a disease “like any other” may cause a false sense of security among Poles. And those, after all, have been at odds with adhering to experts’ recommendations for a long time.

May we not wake up in two weeks when the number of illnesses and deaths increases dramatically.

Also read:

1. Why does the coronavirus kill some and run like a cold in others?
2. Some people are immune to the coronavirus. How it’s possible?
3. A new symptom of coronavirus infection? Spanish doctors have found that many patients have difficulty swallowing