Decisions made in the fight to reduce emissions affect global economic competition, and our country should not be left behind
The Russian government accepted the Paris Agreement. Its main goal is to keep global average temperature rise well below 2°C by the end of the 1,5st century, with efforts to limit warming to 2°C. At the same time, the peak of COXNUMX emissions should be reached “as soon as possible”.
In 2018, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere broke the record for all 60 years of measurements, according to the American Meteorological Society’s annual State of the Climate report. And it seems that this is not the limit.
What will participation in the implementation of the agreement give our country?
Fears and Calculations
If we do not take into account the reputation gain from joining the agreement against the backdrop of the ongoing UN climate summit, then the decision taken in Moscow has consequences for its socio-economic development.
According to the Ministry of Energy, in 2017, greenhouse gas emissions in our country, excluding the absorbing effect of forests, amounted to 67,6% of the 1990 level, and taking into account this effect, 50,7%. our country ranks fourth in the world in terms of emissions – after China, the United States and India. The level of carbon dioxide emissions after 2020 should be no more than 75% of the 1990 volume, that is, there is still room for increasing emissions, but it is small.
Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2016 by Russia, the RSPP has opposed its ratification. Business representatives believe that the policy of limiting emissions will lead to the emergence of new taxes and fees, and as a result, to higher prices and inflation. Nevertheless, participation in the implementation of the agreement gives our country additional opportunities – it will be able not to participate in races with leading economies, but to propose its own global agenda for the development of energy markets.
In fact, we are witnessing the beginning of the stagnation of the “old”, carbon energy. The world is undergoing an energy transition associated with the development and spread of technologies that can cause a redistribution of global energy markets. The Paris Agreement is political and does not contain specific commitments to reduce emissions and sanctions for non-compliance. But then more significant documents should follow, suggesting, for example, the introduction of carbon customs duties that limit access to markets for goods produced using old, polluting technologies. The world’s largest economies will have a new element of global competition. In the long-term low-carbon development strategy being developed by the Ministry of Economic Development, these risks should be taken into account.
Energy-2050
The moment of truth in terms of achieving the goals of the agreement will be mid-century – 2050. By this time, the global energy mix should be low-carbon, based on renewable sources, the introduction of energy storage systems and network technologies for managing energy systems. Most developed economies plan to reach the share of renewable resources in the energy sector in the amount of 50 to 100%. After 2030, we can expect a ban on the production of cars with an internal combustion engine in developed countries, which will lead to a serious reduction in oil consumption, that is, carbon dioxide emissions. I think that in 10-15 years there will be an oil turning point, when the global demand for oil will start to decline. And some European states, such as Germany, announced a complete rejection of coal-fired generation after the 30s of the XNUMXst century.
I am convinced that the new energy industry in 2050 will largely be hydrogen-based. This applies both to vehicles (cars and trucks, ships and even aviation), which now consume about 70% of all oil in the world, and sources of local distributed generation (the first projects are already being implemented today). Going further, hydrogen can become both a source of primary energy and the basis for energy storage and transportation technologies. Agree, it is difficult to imagine anything else purer than hydrogen.
Two key problems remain: how to make hydrogen as cheap as possible, with the possibility of obtaining it anywhere on the planet, and how to safely store and transport it? But investment in their solution is growing rapidly. China is going to invest $2023 billion in hydrogen energy by 17. Other countries are following this path.
Huge hydrocarbon resources can also be used in the “new” energy industry, for example, to obtain the same hydrogen. However, in my opinion, we will not get away from the use of natural gas when introducing the technology of joint generation of electrical and thermal energy. This is primarily due to the need for at least a six-month heating season in most regions of our country. Nevertheless, it can be expected that at the turn of the 2030s, even in our country, energy based on renewable sources will be equal in terms of production to traditional sectors.
The article is taken from the “Opinions” section of the news agency. The points of view of the editors and the author of the material may differ.