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The coronavirus does not give up – the sixth wave of the epidemic in Poland has become a fact. Although we are far from Germany or France, where every day more than 100 people arrive. infections, we have no reason to be satisfied. Contrary. The current R index sent to us by the Ministry of Health is very worrying.
- Thanks to the R index, we know how many healthy people can be infected by one person infected with the coronavirus
- When the R index does not exceed one, we can think that the epidemic is getting weaker, if it exceeds one – it grows stronger
- According to the Ministry of Health data sent to Medonet on July 19, the current R for Poland is 1,49. Why is this disturbing news?
- More information can be found on the TvoiLokony home page
Current R index for Poland. What is happening in voivodships?
On July 19, the Ministry of Health sent the editors of MedTvoiLokony the latest R (virus reproduction rate, RO) index for Poland. It is currently 1,49. This is an average number from all voivodships. Moreover, there is no voivodeship in Poland where RO would be below one.
It is one of the elements used to assess the epidemiological situation in a given country. Thanks to it, we know how many healthy people can be infected by one person infected with the coronavirus. If the R is above one, we know that the epidemic is growing. When the RO is less than one, we can think that the epidemic is dying out and fewer and fewer people are getting infected from each other.
The worst situation is currently in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. West Pomeranian Voivodeship is second, followed by Greater Poland Voivodeship. This is exactly the situation in the provinces:
Warmia and Mazury – 1,79
West Pomeranian Voivodeship – 1,69
Greater Poland – 1,59
Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship – 1,53
Łódź Province – 1,53
Podlaskie – 1,53
Pomeranian Voivodeship – 1,52
Śląskie – 1,50
Lesser Poland – 1,49
Podkarpackie – 1,49
Lubuskie – 1,47
Lower Silesia – 1,44
Masovian Voivodeship – 1,44
Świętokrzyskie – 1,42
Opolskie – 1,39
Lubelskie – 1,34
The rest of the text is below the video.
How has the R index for Poland changed since June? We compare
There are several reasons why the current R indicator for Poland is worrying. The first is of course its value, exceeding the value of one. As mentioned above, it is a sign that more and more people are getting infected from each other. In a word – the epidemic is developing.
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The second reason is a significant increase in RO compared to June data. The R ratio at the end of last month (June 28 to be exact) was 1,36. So it has increased by 0,13 since then. Moreover, in June we still had a “green zone” on the map of Poland – Podlaskie Voivodeship. At that time, the R index was 0,98 there, now it is already 1,53.
It is worth noting that last month the highest RO value was 1,57 (Warmińsko-Mazurskie), today RO is 1,79.
This was the R index for voivodships in June.
This is how the R index has changed in voivodships since the end of June.
| Province | RO on June 28 | RO on July 19 |
|---|---|---|
| Lower Silesia | 1,40 | 1,44 |
| Lubelsky | 1,33 | 1,34 |
| Lodz | 1,38 | 1,53 |
| Mazowieckie | 1,37 | 1,44 |
| Podkarpackie Province | 1,21 | 1,49 |
| Pomeranian | 1,42 | 1,52 |
| swietokrzyskie | 1,50 | 1,42 |
| Greater Poland | 1,39 | 1,59 |
| Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship | 1,40 | 1,53 |
| Lubusz | 1,29 | 1,47 |
| Lesser | 1,40 | 1,49 |
| Opole | 1,30 | 1,39 |
| Podlaskie | 0,98 | 1,53 |
| Silesian | 1,33 | 1,50 |
| Warmia-Mazury | 1,57 | 1,79 |
| West | 1,54 | 1.69 |
| POLAND | 1,36 | 1,49 |
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COVID-19 in Poland. What could happen?
What can we expect in Poland in the near future? In a recent interview, we asked Dr. Aneta Afelt from the COVID-19 advisory team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences about this. – It is very difficult to estimate future developments. Also because we still have immunity (after the last fall / winter wave and immunity after vaccinations) She replied. – On the other hand, the more infectious and immune-circumventing sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5 are spreading better. Since the protection is still there, we can avoid serious health consequences. The question is what will happen in the fall, when we come back from vacation and when school starts.
– It may happen that we come into contact with the virus and we get this “natural immunization”, for which a part of society will pay with health or life. However, I hope that we will show responsibility and, if we suspect the disease, we will impose limitations on ourselves, thus protecting others from infection, ’emphasizes Dr. Afelt.
The Ministry of Health envisages three possible variants of the development of the current wave. The peak of infections would be from August to November. – We assume several tens of thousands of COVID-19 cases a day, and in the worst case scenario, we assume 10 thousand. people in hospitals, in the neutral variant up to 5 thousand. hospitalized people – he said in the program “Onet Rano.” MZ spokesman Wojciech Andrusiewicz.
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