The infection rate in Poland is surprisingly low. We infect less and less

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, the reproduction rate of the coronavirus is now 0,76. This is the lowest value since last June. On the last day, almost 6 were recorded. COVID-19 infections. Does this mean a retreat of the pandemic and a significant easing of restrictions?

1. The third wave of the coronavirus pandemic seems to be behind us. Since the beginning of April, the number of active COVID-19 cases has dropped by exactly half – from 470. up to 235 thousand
2. The Ministry of Health reports declining infections and deaths, although the latter is still worryingly high
3. Mass vaccination against the coronavirus is not without significance. So far, almost 10,5 million vaccinations have been performed. 2,6 million are fully vaccinated
4. Hence, probably the surprisingly low R index, which indicates the reproduction of the virus. Currently it is only 0,76
5. You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page

Coronavirus in Poland. R indicator

The third wave of coronavirus in Poland is clearly weakening. Today, the Ministry of Health informed about 5 thousand. 709 new COVID-19 cases. Last Tuesday, there were new cases by 3,5 thousand. more. This is the fourth day in a row when the number of infections in our country is below 10.

The R index, that is the virus reproduction rate, also speaks about the pandemic’s slowdown. The R indicator tells how many more people can be infected by one person suffering from coronavirus. A value greater than 1 indicates that the epidemic is on an upward wave, a value less than 1 indicates that it is getting weaker.

The data we received from the Ministry of Health show that the R index is decreasing. On April 15, its value for Poland was 0,86. It is currently 0,76.

This is the lowest value of this indicator since at least June last year.

As for voivodships, the worst situation is in Zachodniopomorskie (0,82), and the best in Podkarpacie (0,70).

R-Factor – When was the worst and when was the best?

The data that Minister of Health Adam Niedzielski presented on Twitter a few days ago shows that the highest value of the R index reached in October last year – 1,55.

The best – apart from the latest data, of course – was a month earlier (in September 2020 it was 0,86) and in February this year, just before the outbreak of a new wave of the pandemic, when it reached the value of 0,85.

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In March, when the number of new daily cases increased significantly – it exceeded 35 thousand. – the R index fluctuated around 1,2, much lower than in the record-breaking October.

According to specialists, these data could be understated.

– I think that this R index is higher – said prof. Andrzej Fal, head of the Department of Allergology, Lung Diseases and Internal Diseases at the hospital of the Ministry of Interior and Administration. – With the British variant so infectious, one may not go hand in hand with the other. The more so because here it is necessary to take into account not only the infectivity of the virus of a given variant, but also the fact that voivodships differ from each other. The greater the degree of urbanization, the less we live and work, the greater this infectivity is. Conversely, the lower the population density, the lower the R-factor should be.

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– This value raises questions because it is radically low – emphasized prof. Halyard.

Virus reproduction rate – what is it?

The virus reproduction rate is one of the most reliable methods of assessing the epidemiological situation. The parameter is calculated on the basis of mathematical models that rely on data such as new cases of illness and death. Simulations that take into account social behavior conducive to an epidemic are also taken into account.

An (R) value greater than 1 indicates that the epidemic is developing – one person infects on average as many additional people as the R coefficient indicates. If the R value drops below 1, the epidemic begins to slow down.

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The R factor is not a constant value – it depends on many factors. The most important of them are:

1. Time (durration) – the longer a person is sick, the more opportunities they have to infect others
2. Opportunity to infect others (opportunities) – a variable related to the behavior of the sick person – what he / she does during the illness, does it enter into social interactions, how often it creates the possibility of infecting other people;
3. Transmission probability – factors that increase it – e.g. sneezing, coughing (if the virus is spread by airborne droplets);  
4. The susceptibility of the other person – for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the risk factors are older age and comorbidities.    

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