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Hans Kluge, the regional director of the World Health Organization (WHO), said on Sunday that we are likely to be near the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. There have already been many similar announcements – does this have a chance to come true? According to prof. dr hab. Krzysztof Pyrć, head of the Virology Laboratory at the Małopolska Center of Biotechnology of the Jagiellonian University, we can only talk about ending the fight against coronavirus in the context of the social problem it creates. – The end of the pandemic does not absolutely mean that the virus will disappear. He will stay with us for a long time, unfortunately, says the expert.
- WHO director, believes that most of us will soon acquire coronavirus immunity to calm the pandemic
- Hans Kluge said COVID-19 could come back at the end of the year, but “this return will not mean the return of the pandemic”
- As explained by prof. Pyrć, such a scenario is possible because there is a high probability that after the Omicron wave, most infections will be secondary (diseases occurring in people who already have some immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus)
- However, the expert makes a reservation that the words about the end of the pandemic should not be taken for granted, because we have already thought once that a large wave of infections (Delta) would be the last
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
Optimistic forecast of the head of the WHO
According to the AFP agency, Hans Kluge said that Europe is probably nearing the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. The WHO regional director assessed that by March this year, 2% of Omikron, which is currently the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-60 in an increasing number of countries, will be infected. Europeans.
Such a high number of infections will result in infection records in many regions, however after the peak of incidence, “several weeks of population immunity will be developed as a result of the vaccination campaign or the transmission of COVID-19 disease”. “We expect the situation to calm down significantly before the disease recurs around the end of the year, but this return will not mean a return of the pandemic,” he added.
What does the end of the pandemic mean for us?
In Poland, the words of the director of WHO may sound unbelievable now. The fifth wave is just accelerating here, and its peak is forecasted for mid-February. Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said that we can expect the barrier of 50 to be exceeded this week. infections daily, and up to 100 people may be quarantined. people in one day. How is it possible that in such a situation, which prevails not only in Poland, there is talk of defeating the coronavirus and ending the pandemic?
- Also read: How long will the fifth wave in Poland last?
As explained by prof. Krzysztof Pyrć, virologist from the Jagiellonian University, the premise for such a claim is the fact that after the current wave has passed, almost everyone will have better or worse immunity as a result of vaccination and disease. – While it will not stop the disease, it will significantly reduce hospitalizations and deaths. When the threat to the functioning of society disappears, we will be able to talk about the end of the pandemic.
– In countries where the vaccination policy was conducted rationally and consistently, in the fall we reached the point where practically all new infections are secondary infections – they occur in people whose immune system, thanks to vaccination, already has the basic tools to defend itself, which significantly reduces the risk of severe COVID-19. In countries where the pro-vaccination and pro-health policy was a bit worse, such as Poland, we reach the point where most of the people who did not get vaccinated have already contracted COVID-19 and also acquired some immunity, although we paid a terrible price of 200 for it. . excess deaths last year.
- See also: Over half a million people died in Poland in 2021. The most tragic year since World War II
According to the expert, after the current wave caused by a new variant of the coronavirus, it is very likely that all new infections in our region will be of a secondary nature. – Anyone who gets infected will already have some level of immunity, which will make the mortality rate lower. However, the end of the pandemic does not absolutely mean that the virus will disappear. The virus will stay with us. It will cease to be a social problem, so the pandemic will de facto end, but that does not mean that people will stop dying. COVID-19 will remain a medical problem and vaccines and drugs will still be necessary, says Prof. Throw.
The virologist draws attention to one more important aspect of predicting the end of a pandemic. It is about the scale of new infections brought about by the fifth wave. – Each large wave increases the risk of new virus variants emerging, and the current wave is gigantic. Therefore, let us not treat this announced ending as an absolute, because we have already counted once before that the end would come after the wave – this was the case with Delta. Unfortunately, a new variant has emerged that has delayed this turn of events. However, the recovery scenario is still on the table – assures the professor.
- When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? Experts give specific dates
People need hope
Hans Kluge’s predictions are not the first sign that the COVID-19 pandemic will end. On average, every few weeks there are comments from other experts who analyze possible scenarios of the effects of further fight against the coronavirus. All of them are an answer to the increasing number of questions tired of helplessness, fear and limitations in social life of people who have been trying to find their place in the new reality for over two years.
Although there are indeed more and more voices in the WHO itself, announcing that this year may be the year of the end of the pandemic (WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also spoke in a similar tone to Kluge’s words), others are a bit more cautious in judging about its imminent end .
- Also read: In 2022, the pandemic may end. There is one condition
Nanette Cocero, CEO of Pfizer Vaccines, said in December that COVID-19 will most likely go endemic by 2024. In turn, the scientific director of the manufacturer of the COVID-19 vaccine, Mikael Dolsten, said that The timing of the transition from a coronavirus pandemic to an endemic may vary between communities.
– It looks like some regions will be endemic within the next year or two, but others will still be in a pandemic state. When and how exactly this happens will depend on the evolution of the disease, on how successfully societies are vaccinated and treated. There will also be a need for fair distribution of vaccines in places where vaccination rates are low. The emergence of new variants may also affect the further course of the pandemic – he pointed out.
- Are we facing another pandemic?
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