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The number of infections has been around 50 for several days. Disturbing? Yes, but not as much as the fact that COVID-19 is actually 10 times more common. According to some experts, at the peak of the fifth wave it is even 800. coronavirus infections daily. However, we will never see this in official statistics. Why?
- According to experts, the main reason for the difference between official statistics and reality is the failure of the testing system
- We test too little in relation to the needs – with such a large scale of infections, we should perform 1 million tests a day, and we perform about 170.
- – We are not able to test more physically in Poland than at present (…). Not because we don’t have the tests, but because we don’t have enough people to evaluate them, the drug says. Bartosz Fiałek
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COVID-19: Official Data Versus Reality
The emergence of a new, extremely infectious variant of the coronavirus – Omicron – has caused most countries to record record numbers of COVID-19 cases. Even in November, global statistics added about 500 a day. cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. From the end of November (i.e. about two weeks after the detection of the Omicron), the bars began to grow rapidly, reaching 700. in early December and surpassing 1 million infections just before Christmas. We entered the new year with new records. The worst was January 20, with a total of more than 3,8 million cases of coronavirus infections worldwide.
At exactly the same time in Poland, Omikron made a strong impression. Almost overnight, the chart of daily infections soared. On January 18 (Tuesday), there were 19 thousand new cases. 652, a day later – already 30 thousand. 586. Since then, with one exception (29 100 infections were announced on Monday, January 24), the number has not dropped below 30. The largest number of new cases was on January 27 – 57. 659. February 10 is 42 thousand. 095 cases.
These numbers are impressive, but we should not attach too much importance to them. According to experts, they are heavily underestimated. How much?
According to conservative estimates, there may be an average of eight to 10 times more infections, i.e. 400-600 thousand. At the peak of the wave, it is even 800. illnesses. The summit, which – as scientists and doctors emphasize – we do not know if we are already behind us or still ahead, because no one can say with certainty at what point in the fifth wave we are in Poland.
– Our model shows that the numbers given by the ministry should be multiplied by 12. This means that in the last few days up to 600 people become infected every day. people. In a week we predict the peak of infections and it will be around 800. daily infections – said Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw last week.
The test system is defective
According to prof. Krzysztof J. Filipiak, internist, cardiologist, clinical pharmacologist, doctor with 25 years of work experience, such a large difference between the official data and the real number of infections is the result of a defective testing system.
We have not dealt with the testing system since the beginning of the pandemic. We have a very poorly developed laboratory diagnostics, we test little, sequence little, and we have not significantly supported testing and related sanitary services since March 2020
– points out, adding that private test execution also has an impact.
– On the one hand, directing crowds to pharmacies and not reporting the results of these tests, on the other – not testing at all, resulting from imprecise, confusing regulations on isolation and quarantine, but also due to the activity of anti-vaccine movements that negate the pandemic.
- Also check: They got a referral, they didn’t take the test. How many Poles are in the gray zone?
The rest of the text below the video.
We are not prepared for such a scale of infections
The drug also points to the problem with the capacity of laboratories. Bartosz Fiałek, rheumatologist and promoter of medical knowledge about COVID-19. In his opinion, Poland was not prepared for such a large scale of infections.
– We are not able to physically test more in Poland than at present, i.e. the maximum possibility is about 200. daily tests. Not because we don’t have the tests, but because we don’t have enough people to rate them. Remember that the test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is assessed by a human, a laboratory diagnostician. With a shortage of staff in this professional group of health care workers, it is simply impossible to verify more tests – he points out.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations on testing and its role in monitoring the course of the pandemic are unequivocal. To be able to talk about any control of it, positive tests should not be more than 5 percent.
If in Poland we observe 20 or even 30 percent. positive results from the entire pool of performed tests, which means that we perform several times less tests than we should. When detecting 50 thousand. infections during the day, we should perform a minimum of 1 million tests, and we perform about 170. This shows how ineffective we are. We are not prepared for such a large scale of SARS-CoV-2 infections
– evaluates Bartosz Fiałek.
When asked how much of an impact on these results may be the reluctance of Poles to test themselves (including PCR verification of antigen test results) and disclose their health condition, he assessed it as insignificant.
– I don’t think it was a significant percentage. This is pure logic. A referral for a test means that we automatically get a sick leave. I don’t think people choose to go on vacation especially to stay home five or six days as self-isolation. It is much better to test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and get an exemption, rather than taking a vacation – says the expert.
- Read also: I am tested positive for coronavirus – what next? [WE EXPLAIN]
Fifth Wave – What’s Next?
Although the real number of COVID-19 cases is alarmingly high, the government announced changes to the existing restrictions. The time of isolation was shortened by three days, quarantine on arrival was abandoned, and the rules for holding it by housemates were changed (it will now last as long as the isolation of an infected household member). The number of hospital beds for covid patients was also reduced (by 5). It has been announced that students will return to full-time education a week earlier than expected (February 21).
- Read also: In these countries, restrictions have been lifted. What is the epidemic situation there?
Health Minister Adam Niedzielski, arguing these decisions, stated that the apogee of the fifth wave is behind us and in the coming weeks we will see a clear decrease in the number of coronavirus infections (even 20% per week).
– I hope that in March we will be able to make bold decisions on lifting restrictions and introducing less stringent regulations, so that we can enter the normal mode of operation in spring. I am an optimist, we are dealing with the beginning of the end of the epidemic – he announced during a press conference.
- See also: The end of the epidemic in Poland? Specialists criticize the words of Minister Niedzielski
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