The development of robotics will largely depend on related industries: materials science and advances in computer technology. Sberbank analysts have identified the main trends in the industry for the next five years
People tend to overestimate the impact of new technologies in the near future and underestimate their long-term impact. But this does not negate the fact that the expert community, the state and business need a “road map” for the development of innovative industries in the foreseeable future.
The authors of the annual review of the robotics market, which is published by Sberbank, discussed fundamental trends in this area with specialists and presented 2019 areas in the report for 11 that will have the greatest impact on the development of robotics in our country and the world in the next five years.
1. New materials
Even if we take into account the simplest industrial manipulators, in 2019 there are about 3,5 thousand people per robot, and this ratio is unlikely to grow without radical changes in the science of the materials from which robotics is created, the authors of the review are sure. They pay special attention to two promising materials:
- gallium nitride (GaN), which can successfully replace silicon in the production of transistors;
- graphene, a super-thin and super-strong material that can be used to produce robot actuators, new batteries, and much more.
2. New sources of energy, technologies for its collection and storage
Considering the amount of heat generated by the combustion of gasoline and the human need for energy, it is easy to calculate that if people lived on gasoline, they would need only 150 grams of fuel per day. In turn, electric motors are now even less energy efficient than the internal combustion engine. In order for robots to compete with humans in terms of their capabilities, breakthrough technologies are needed in their energy supply.
For example, this is the improvement of current lithium batteries, the creation of new hydrogen-based batteries, and so on. Also, we should not forget about alternative, renewable energy sources. Finally, the technology of remote recharging of the robot can be implemented, for example, from energy sources built into the floor or walls.
3. Interaction of groups of robots and people
We are talking about unmanned traffic control systems. To avoid accidents and accidents, transport robots must have a channel of interconnection both with a person and with each other.
4. Navigation in extreme conditions
Robots must understand what they are doing and where they are moving not only in normal conditions for humans, but also where people simply cannot get there: for example, in the mountains or on the seabed.
In addition, situations cannot be ruled out when the robot will be left without communication at all (for example, underground or when a satellite breaks down). In this case, it is important to develop a fully autonomous navigation system for unmanned devices. Similar developments already exist both abroad and in our country.
5. Machine learning
The development of artificial intelligence is necessary to create truly useful and “smart” robots. Over the course of several years, Sberbank analysts identify four fundamental development vectors in this area:
increasing the efficiency of using neural networks by complicating their architecture or reducing power consumption; learning algorithmic procedures instead of hard programming, which will simplify and, therefore, speed up the process of obtaining skills by the machine; mass adoption of cloud services for machine learning; improvement of motor actions of robots thanks to artificial intelligence technologies.
6. Human-machine interaction
The economy of robots, like all other innovative technologies, is to increase labor productivity. That is, automation is not an end in itself, but a tool to increase economic efficiency. The authors of the review are inclined to believe that the best result will be shown not by replacing people with robots, but by their cooperation. According to them, the interaction of robots and people will develop in four main areas:
- a robot as a tool that repeats human capabilities (for example, exoskeletons and prostheses);
- robot as a tool that expands human capabilities;
- robot avatar, that is, a machine remotely controlled by a person in hard-to-reach places;
- social interaction with a person, such as voice assistants and chatbots.
7. Manipulative robotics
The authors of the Sberbank report believe that in the next five years we are unlikely to see a breakthrough in hardware technologies for robots (“hardware”), but the development of software will increase the capabilities and reduce the costs of manipulation equipment.
First of all, we are talking about improving the feedback of sensors. The robot, capturing the object, will have to inform the operator in detail about its weight, dimensions, compressive force, etc. Also, new computer technologies will allow programming more complex trajectories of manipulators.
8. Sensory
One of the definitions of the term “robot”, which Sberbank analysts adhere to, says that it is a machine that can perceive the world around it with the help of sensors, process the signals received in this way and react accordingly. Reducing the cost, simplification and improvement of the capabilities of sensors is one of the key trends in the development of robotics in the coming years.
9. Robot simulators
To train robots, you need large amounts of data. To get them, it is not necessary to build a robot model – sometimes it can be economically unprofitable, sometimes even dangerous for humans. Therefore, the volume of creating computer simulators of the robot with the expansion of automation will only increase.
10. New drive
Fundamentally, the principles of creating drive mechanisms are unlikely to change, but even here the authors of the review find a field for innovation. In addition to the new super-strong materials mentioned in the first paragraph, these can be new motors and gearboxes.
11. Design and production
Again, this is primarily about software innovation. Libraries of electronic components, high-quality digital diaries, virtual reality tools can simplify the product design process.
At the production stage, the progress of robotics will be stimulated by the emergence of new materials, their reduction in cost, as well as the development of 3D printing. Here, too, one cannot do without optimizing the software, which will make it easier and faster to create new machines.