“The fourth wave will be long and flat”. Here’s what awaits us [FORECAST]

Proven content

Data from the Ministry of Health are more and more worrying – infections are increasing, hospitals are filling up, and the number of deaths from COVID-19 is also increasing. For now, there are several thousand. new infections daily, but soon it may be up to 25 thousand. This is the result of the forecasts prepared by the team of the epidemiological model of the Interdisciplinary Modeling Center of the University of Warsaw. Dr inż. Franciszek Rakowski in an interview with Medonet says when the fourth wave will culminate and how many such waves of epidemics are still waiting for us.

1. What are the forecasts for the near future? – The identified cases will be from approx. 12 thousand. up to approx. 25 thousand This, of course, will translate into the number of hospitalizations – says the expert
2. According to Dr. Rakowski, the peak of infections will be around Christmas
3. – The fourth wave will be longer – says the specialist and explains where the virus will hit the most
4. You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page

Monika Mikołajska, MedTvoiLokony: We already have the fourth wave of the epidemic. What makes this pandemic to worsen from time to time? Are we making a mistake somewhere? Or is it the normal course of things?

Dr inż. Franciszek RakowskiA: It seems normal for a pandemic to develop, of course given the social and psychological complexity of the process we are witnessing. Let’s see what happens.

When a new virus appears in the population, the current reality is turned upside down. It is therefore necessary to regain the balance, i.e. to achieve the state we currently have for other coronaviruses or flu. It is about a situation when our organisms know how to defend themselves against the pathogen. Before that happens, however, the seven billion people living in the world need to make antibodies. This is a fundamental process that must be accomplished.

So it is a kind of fight between us and SARS-CoV-2, which takes the form of waves we already know. Why is it like this?

This is mainly because the population would not be able to withstand the one-wave immunity process. Imagine the situation that it is autumn 2020. In Poland, we decide not to introduce any restrictions – we allow the epidemic to develop spontaneously. One powerful wave is created. The result – a huge number of deaths. Hospitalization would not be anymore as the efficiency of health care would be at an end. On the other hand, the virus would spread through the entire population, of which over 90 percent. would be immune.

An extreme alternative that would allow us to avoid the waves and the spread of the epidemic would be to maintain a total lockdown until we receive COVID-19 vaccines, and then administer 90% of them. population. Of course, this is a completely unrealistic scenario.

The COVID-19 epidemic waves we are seeing are not spontaneous. This is the effect of imposing restrictions and removing them. Of course, this happens under different conditions and with the presence of different variants of the coronavirus. The influence of seasonality, such as what happens after a holiday, is also important.

The rest of the interview under the video:

So we should treat waves as a normal part of the COVID-19 pandemic. Did its development during these months in any way surprise you?

Yes. The biggest surprise was that in May and June this year, the number of new cases of infection fell. We predicted that after the schools were opened, which then took place, we would remain at the level of approx. XNUMX. cases during the day, and the statistics will start to decline at the end of June and July. However, this did not happen.

You know why this forecast did not come true?

This is where the aforementioned seasonality effect worked. It is definitely happening, but we don’t quite understand it yet. We do not know exactly what the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 activity and weather is. Do atmospheric conditions directly affect the coronavirus particle / complex by degrading it? Or is it our weather-determined behavior (frequent outdoor activities, greater distances, etc.) that is the determining factor? We do not know this at the moment. Hence our surprise at the development of the situation at the turn of spring and summer. In fact, the only one – the other factors were as expected.

Let’s move on to what is currently happening in Poland regarding COVID-19. What could happen in the coming weeks? We already have over 5 infections daily, and Minister Niedzielski recently said that at the end of November there will be up to 12 thousand.

And you need to prepare for that. There will be from approx. 12 thousand cases identified. up to approx. 25 thousand This, of course, will translate into the number of hospitalizations. Here the numbers will be similar. From several thousand to about 25 thousand. hospitalization during the day. And these are not admissions to hospital, but the number of beds occupied on a given day.

25 thousand daily hospitalizations are a lot …

Yes, especially since it will take a long time. The peak of the fourth wave may last for two or three months. During this time, every day over 20 thousand. patients a day can go to covid wards.

And what do the forecasts for the number of deaths in the fourth wave say? In one of the interviews you said that regardless of the number of daily infections, the mortality potential is estimated at approx. 38 thousand. people. What does this mean and who is most at risk?

Mortality potential at the level of 38 thousand. means that by the end of the fourth wave, this is how many people may be dying from COVID-19. At least, because it is unfortunately a more optimistic scenario. It is possible that the death toll will be up to 50. Most of them will be elderly people. For those 38 thousand, eight thousand. will be people under the age of 75, the remaining 30 thousand. are patients 75+.

Why are seniors at risk of death in the fourth wave? It is said that this group is well vaccinated against COVID-19, and they may also receive a booster dose …

Despite high vaccination coverage among the elderly in this group, there is still a large buffer of those who have not opted for it. A significant percentage of vaccinated people is among 70-80-year-olds – it is approx. 70%, but among people 80+ it is approx. 63%. Up to the desired level of 80-90 percent. a lot is still missing here.

November 1st is approaching. We know that there are no plans to close the cemeteries. Could this somehow affect the course of the fourth wave? There will be crowds and many elderly people in the cemeteries.

Generally, I believe that introducing restrictions for two or three days does not give much. I also do not think that the time when we will visit cemeteries in large numbers will affect the development of the epidemic. In my opinion, epidemics fuel permanent social contacts that last for two or three weeks. Events lasting a day, two or three, such as holidays or elections, may have some reflection in the statistics after these 14 days, but they will not change the trend.

Of course, when going to the graves of loved ones, remember about protection, i.e. masks, keeping distance and, above all, avoiding contacts (including family contacts) in closed rooms. The idea is to prevent a situation where, for example, in a small room for dinner 15 people meet, eat together, talk loudly or sing. These are the behaviors most conducive to SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

1. You can buy a set of FFP2 filtering masks at an attractive price at medonetmarket.pl

When you follow the scenarios of the fourth wave appearing in the media, you can see that there are two visions. It is said to be acute and violent, with infections peaking in November. There are also forecasts that it will be more flattened and will last longer, even until March. Moreover, the peak of the current wave is shifting a bit – first it was November, now November / December. In your opinion, the peak of the wave may also continue during the Christmas and New Year period. Where did these discrepancies come from and what does it all mean?

The shift of the peak of the current wave from November to December is due to the fact that in the previous forecast we did not yet have data on the spatial distribution of vaccinated people. It turned out that large cities are much better vaccinated than villages and small towns. This causes the epidemic to naturally flatten, because the epidemic wave will reach these places later, and its pace will be slower. Meanwhile, it is known that when it comes to cities, the dynamics of the epidemic is greater, which results from a greater number and greater frequency of interpersonal contacts. Simply put, in cities it is like a hive, and this favors the spread of infections.

This also explains why the fourth wave will be longer. It will simply take place mainly in villages and small towns, especially in the region of south-eastern Poland.

This one. Another important issue with regard to the differences in the fourth wave scenarios is the length and duration of immunity (after vaccination and post-infection). At the moment, it is virtually unknown. So we have prepared concepts that take into account different levels of resistance degradation rates. If it happens quickly – the waveform will be sharper, if slower – it will be smoother. We have more and more data on this subject, which also affects the changes in the scenarios being developed. At the moment, I can say that the concept of a longer wave with a milder course is more likely.

And when is it likely to reach its peak?

We expect it for Christmas. Then a dozen to 25 thousand will be mentioned. beds occupied each day and more or less the same number of new cases confirmed daily.

It smells like restrictions …

These high numbers do not necessarily lead to restrictions. Previously, we had to introduce them in order not to end in a disaster. Today we are in a slightly different situation, we have vaccinations, many people have acquired immunity through disease. In fact the wave may be high, but it can also pass by itself. This will cost a huge number of hospitalizations and deaths, but if people don’t want to get vaccinated, there’s no help. Of course, the introduction of restrictions is a decision of politicians and what I am saying is absolutely not a recommendation.

How many more such waves can we wait?

This will be good news – this will probably be the last wave of this type of epidemic. It can be broken down into several stages, but what we have already said is more likely to be long and flat. It does not change one thing – the coronavirus will stay with us.

This may interest you:

1. Sweden has lifted all restrictions. The forecasts are optimistic
2. Bad news for Poland. The worst is ahead. Peak during the holidays
3. The fourth wave is moving east of Europe [MAP]

The content of the medTvoiLokony website is intended to improve, not replace, the contact between the Website User and their doctor. The website is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Before following the specialist knowledge, in particular medical advice, contained on our Website, you must consult a doctor. The Administrator does not bear any consequences resulting from the use of information contained on the Website. Do you need a medical consultation or an e-prescription? Go to halodoctor.pl, where you will get online help – quickly, safely and without leaving your home.