The fourth wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland continues to grow in strength, and at a very fast pace. Dr. Aneta Afelt from the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences is not surprised by the development of the situation. In her opinion, there may be as many as nine times more infected than the data show. Why? How did all this happen? What can happen after November 1, how will the events unfold if there are no restrictions and there are no vaccinated people? She told Medonet about it all. This is not good news, but we must be aware of it.
- Dr. Afelt: We currently have six, eight, even nine times more infected people than what the data shows
- The Delta variant of the coronavirus reduces the time between infection, symptoms (if any) and the onset of complications. It also means we infect others faster
- As a result of the crowds in cemeteries and family gatherings accompanying the All Saints’ celebrations, it may turn out that three weeks after November 1, further outbreaks of infections will break out, this time scattered around Poland
- – If half of the adult population in Poland has not been vaccinated and is not going to, anyway within three to five years each of us will come into contact with the virus – notes Dr. Afelt. However, this also means that if there are still just over 50% vaccinated, the epidemic could continue all this time. – So it’s possible we’re not even halfway there.
- Dr. Afelt believes that if we do not introduce restrictions, we do not limit people’s social activity, we implement in a sense the Swedish variant of exposure to infection (natural immunization)
- How can the fourth wave roll? What can we do to make it as smooth as possible? The expert has no doubts
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
Monika Mikołajska / Medonet: “We expected an increase in the number of infections, but not at this rate” – Prof. Joanna Zajkowska from the Medical University of Białystok. Are you surprised by such a rapid development of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 epidemic?
Dr Aneta Afelt: I am absolutely not surprised by this situation. I deal with health geography. So my way of analyzing reality and evaluating data is slightly different than that of my colleagues. From my point of view, the dynamic increase in coronavirus infections in our country is not surprising.
What exactly happened to make the fourth wave of COVID-19 so suddenly accelerate?
What is happening now has been influenced by several factors. The most important thing is the type of community we create – in terms of territorial distribution, demographics, age structure, but also beliefs and values. All this creates a kind of network that defines how we live, what contact we have with areas outside our place of residence, and how we communicate with the world in general.
It sounds quite complicated.
Seemingly. Let us see that eastern Poland, where the number of new cases is increasing the fastest, is an area from which there is a lot of economic migration. In western Poland, which is rather economically wealthy, this phenomenon is not so intense, there is no such dynamic population exchange there.
The way we function as a community, our local, regional and global ties determine how an epidemic can go. On top of all this, we still need to filter our beliefs, habits, frequency of contact with loved ones and their type. You have to take into account whether they are extended families or dispersed without contact, whether we have many friends, whether we see them often, whether we live close to each other and visit each other willingly. It all matters.
But what happened to make the infections so suddenly and so fast? On October 1, we had 1 new cases, 362 days later over 28 thousand, and now over 8,3 thousand.
To begin with, these infection rates do not reflect the actual situation in any way. There should be no illusions about this. These numbers only represent people who needed to be tested (had symptoms).
How many people with coronavirus infection can we really have in Poland? Can you estimate it?
Such estimates can be made in various ways. The World Health Organization says that at this stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seven times more people in the world who are already in contact with SARS-CoV-2. In our country, at the moment, there may be six, eight, even nine times more infected people than what the data show.
The number of infected people is the basis for delineating the rate of increase of new cases. Much more important, however, is that the Delta variant reduces the time between infection, symptoms (if any) and the resulting health problems. In the case of the original variant and the British variant of the coronavirus, an average of 5,7 days passed from the contact with the pathogen and the appearance of the infection, i.e. almost a week (which also delayed the health consequences). Now, symptoms appear faster, the patient’s health deteriorates faster, and we infect others faster.
Coming back to the fourth wave … In the east of Poland, we have a community that is well connected with each other by strong family and social contacts.
Just like that. Although the population density is low there, people communicate with each other very often, for example through religious meetings. If someone also contests the presence of the coronavirus, the need for vaccination, and if he has symptoms, thinks he will be fine, all this poses a real risk of spreading the epidemic wave throughout the community. And this is exactly what is happening in eastern Poland today.
The research of the National Institute of Public Health of the National Institute of Hygiene shows that there 40 – 50 percent. the population is exposed to the virus, although of course this contact is a consequence of infection and, as a result, vaccination. And now – If we have a low vaccination level, as in the east of Poland, and thus a large group of unvaccinated people (including those over 55), as well as low population immunity, it is no wonder that we have a high mortality rate and rapid spread of the virus.
- We have fewer infections than Germany, but more deaths. What’s happening?
We are celebrating All Saints’ Day, can what usually happens then (trips, crowded cemeteries) have a real impact on the epidemic situation?
Of course it can. Remember that the so-called Warsaw’s migration catchment area (i.e. the areas from which its inhabitants moved) extends to Białystok and eastern Poland. Those who, for professional, personal or other reasons, left for the capital come from those multigenerational families. So, most likely, these people will meet both at cemeteries and at dinners at home. If so, unfortunately, three weeks after November 1, it may turn out that more infection outbreaks will break out, this time scattered around Poland. If we don’t control it, we will suffer the consequences before Christmas.
There are no restrictions at the moment (as the government spokesman said, possible restrictions will apply to areas with an increase in the incidence). There are, however, appeals for the wearing of masks and a policy of issuing fines for the lack of them.
In Poland, unfortunately, a protective mask is treated as a tool against personal freedom. Airing the rooms is generally an aberration, because it is cold. We like to sit very close to each other in the warmth at the table. All this creates ideal conditions for the transmission of the virus.
- The fourth wave in Poland. What restrictions must be introduced? Doctors: the worst scenario comes true
The government emphasizes that restrictions are the last item to be used. Do you think this is a good path?
I will say something that is rather not very popular. Vaccination serves to come into contact with the coronavirus under controlled conditions (the most important task of vaccines is to prevent severe disease, and thus deaths – ed.). You can also come across SARS-CoV-2 under uncontrolled conditions. In short, vaccination serves to get the population exposed to the virus, so that the next time it is exposed, the consequences are less severe.
If we have high individual immunity after vaccination, the infection will not do us any harm – we simply will not get sick. If, on the other hand, we become infected by natural exposure, the immunity that we gain from it lasts shorter, so the next infection will not necessarily be milder in its course. This is a very peculiar matter.
Podsumowując: If half of the adult population of Poland has not been vaccinated and is not going to, anyway within three to five years each of us will come into contact with the virus. If we do not introduce restrictions, we do not limit people’s social activity, we implement, in a sense, the Swedish variant of exposure to infection (natural immunization). However, the vaccinated are safe, and those who do not want to be vaccinated do it at their own risk.
Children are currently in the most difficult situation.
Yes. Currently, only teenagers can be vaccinated against COVID-19, but the statistics are unfortunately weak. In the coming weeks, we expect the decision of the European Medicines Agency, which will rather approve the use of the vaccine in children aged 5+.
At present, however, we have a situation where the unvaccinated people, that is, children and adults who have decided not to receive the vaccine, are in a way a resource thanks to which the virus has the conditions to function.
Hence, more and more frequent questions about the aforementioned restrictions, including the introduction of covid passports, similar to e.g. in France. Currently, it is rarely verified whether a person is vaccinated
Fortunately, I don’t have to make these kinds of decisions. I am now in France and the requirements for showing evidence of vaccination or recent COVID-19 disease are clearly defined. The possibility of using restaurants, cafes, cinemas, hotels and other services available in public space, with the exception of grocery stores and other supply stores, is impossible without presenting such documents.
In France, no one treats this requirement as an attack on personal freedom. People know that it ends where responsibility for the shared space begins. Of course, at home, everyone expresses their own views, but it is clear in public that we take responsibility for the well-being of the public.
It is a bit different in Poland.
Yes, and I’ve always wondered why. There are theories about it.
I personally prefer social responsibility which is closer to the West of Europe than personal freedom at all costs, which is in Poland.
How can all of this go? What can we expect from the fourth wave?
The number of those infected will grow, that’s for sure. It is difficult to say how long this growth will continue. It depends on how many outbreaks of infection in eastern Poland will spread to the rest of the country, as well as on the testing system, i.e. whether it will also include vaccinated people.
It is very important what the situation with regard to hospitalization and the number of deaths will look like. We know that mostly unvaccinated people go to hospitals. We also know that in unvaccinated and infected people who are at risk, the likelihood of complications and even death is high. ICM teammates say up to 40 deaths and more. These values will not surprise me.
In Poland, we will die of COVID-19 as long as we do not acquire population immunity through vaccination or disease. If just over 50% are still vaccinated, an epidemic could last three to five years. So it is possible that we are not even halfway there.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
There are also voices that at the current pace of the fourth wave, its peak may come earlier than forecast.
Where spikes in infection are already underway, the peak of the wave will come sooner. For example, in the east of Poland, we expect it at the turn of October and November, so in a moment. The apogee of the wave may shift regionally – depending on its intensity and the pace at which it will travel. As currently the most infected are in eastern and central Poland, it may also turn out that this number of infections will peak in the middle or end of November, which would coincide with the period of three weeks after All Saints’ Day.
Currently, it is estimated that the peak of the wave will bring 16-30 thousand. infections throughout the day. Will it really be so, time will tell. It is very difficult to assess because we do not know what the philosophy of the testing system will be.
So the most important question must be: what to do now to get out of the fourth wave with the least losses. I also mean All Saints.
If we are not vaccinated, let’s do it as soon as possible. Let’s be very careful with children, this is the group most exposed to coronavirus infection. Even if they pass asymptomatically in most cases, they may unknowingly transmit the virus to others. You have to be very careful about any unusual health behavior of children – even after asymptomatic infection, they may develop PIMS, which if not caught in time, may lead to serious consequences.
- Fourth wave. The psychologist warns: anyone can become an unwitting killer
Referring to November 1 – if it is possible, let’s postpone the trip and stay at home. If we cannot do it, remember to properly wear the mask and replace it hygienically, especially in closed rooms and when we are in close contact with a large group of people. Let’s not forget about airing the rooms in which we are staying. This is simple advice, but the months of the pandemic have proven to be effective.
You can buy a set of FFP2 filtering masks at an attractive price at medonetmarket.pl
You may be interested in:
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- Coronavirus in Europe. There are no safe zones in Poland anymore
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